Hey rytech, I'm German, too, and I'm sorry to hear you're having such a hard time in Hamburg. I've only been to the city once and liked it very much.
I'm currently living abroad but I was recently in Germany for a few weeks and could secure three new bangs. Here are some of my, unorganized, thoughts on the current state of dating in Germany and on your experiences. But quite honestly: Even to me as a native the dating dynamics in this country remain a mystery.
1) Social circle game is king Like most others have already emphasized, you can bet that 90% of all Germans get laid and get into relationships via social circles. As I was abroad for a while, I missed out a lot and had to realize that almost all of my friends are now locked up in LTRs. A lot of guys end up with girls from their hometowns and regions.
Like others have said, it's hard to break into these established, closed social circles, even for Germans. I recommend to seek social circles, that are open or semi-open to strangers. Find a niche with good ratios: theatre, yoga groups, electronic music, arts, vernissages, foreign language clubs, dancing schools etc.
Especially, the formal dancing should not be underestimated. Last month I went to Swing dance event in Berlin and was flabberghasted by the talent. Granted, there were a lot of couples but also many sweet and well-dressed girls with gay or omega dance partners.
2) Online game sucks Granted, I got a couple of bangs from online game but in general the quality and the ROI are low, especially in the age group 18 to 28. (I succesfully gamed cougars online, though) Don't waste your time with that. It also has a social stigma. Most Germans would consider you a loser if you look for girls online. It doesn't have yet the same acceptance as in North America.
3) You can survive on night game only. In Berlin. You make it sound like Hamburg nightlife is tough, not just door-policy-wise. Do yourself a favor and check out Berlin more often. While the talent is definitely not as good as in Eastern Europe, it's the place to be for SNLs. The city has world class and affordable nightlife. Tons of tourists, foreign exchange students, locals and party sluts. Most guys don't approach, but you don't even need an opener. Confident body language and semi-decent dancing skills are usually enough to secure a makeout. Honestly, if you can't get laid here, you can't get laid anywhere else.
4) Looks If I understood you correctly, you're more the buff, military type. While that itself shouldn't deter you from approaching, it's my experience that this is in many cases not what most German girls prefer. Don't get me wrong: muscles are always good but a Ryan Gosling would always do better here than a Vin Diesel. At least, I don't see any of those gorillas having really hot girls on their side. As a rule of thumb: The more educated she is the more prejudices she will have against your muscles.
Apart from that, I wrote a post a couple of months ago that covers some of your issues.
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As a German or an American who speaks the language you simply cannot use all the concepts of game like it is taught by Strauss or Roosh and expect it to work exactly like in the US. The way Germans socialize and forge friendships is quite different from what people usually do in America and many other countries.
The situation has improved over the years, I think, but in general it is safe to say that small talk is still widely unheard of and the concept is alien to most Germans. A few examples: while it is perfectly acceptable in Britain or the US to say "Beautiful weather, isn't it?" to a random stranger, many Germans would think you must be weird and have some mental issues in order to say that to someone you don't know. In Anglophone countries it's pretty common to ask "How is it going/How are you doing?" to greet people and to introduce yourself. You can reasonably expect that the other person says good, fine or great in 95% of the cases, even if they feel bad. The question simply serves a social function and for native speakers it is clear that it is just chitchat that has no meaning. In German, "How you doing" will always be understood as a literal question and as a native speaker I only ask this people whom I know and who I actually care about. In addition to that, Germans put things quite literally and are not very subtle when it comes to conversations, especially when they speak English. The playful, ironic banter you can enjoy with people of both sexes in the US and Britain is existent here to an extent but not very entrenched in the everyday life. Also, people in general do not use the term friend lightly. Americans call everyone they know and like a friend, in Germany you would more often just be a buddy or good acquaintance. It takes several months until people consider you a real friend but then they will be extremely loyal to you.
All of which, affects the way you need to game German girls. When I lived in the US, I could be sober, walk up to a girl at a party and say things like "Hey girl, how is it going?" I think I had the foreigner bonus at the campus I was studying at, so I felt that this was not exactly the greatest but a legitimate way to strike up a conversation with a girl. It never hurt me, at least.
The same sentence in German would be something like "Na Kleine, wie geht's? Alles klar bei dir?" but phrased like this you can't say it to the overwhelming majority of girls because it would come off as incongruent and unnatural to her ears. Also, despite all the rants about American feminism, I think when a man walks up to a woman in the US, it is clear to both parties what it's about it and I found it easier to create sexual tension with American girls as they also push for it when they like you and they accept their roles in the game. Not so your Fräuleins: first, German guys rarely approach and she is just not used to it. Many German girls sound extremely rational and robotic when you talk to them as if you are about to negotiate an insurance policy. It's like they never learned how to be sweet, seductive and feminine when they talk to a guy.
So, how to game here then? I agree that most German guys get laid and date through social circles. If you ask people how they met their girlfriends in 98% they will say through friends, study groups at university, work, common hobbies or a sports club. While this seems the usual way people find their partners around the world, at least among my British and American friends I hear WAY more often stories like "Well, I saw this chick in a book store and asked for her number" than from Germans.
If you come here, social circle game is certainly a safe bet but I daresay cold approaching works fine during the day and in clubs can get you laid just as well. SNLs in cities other than Munich, Berlin, Hamburg or Köln are rare but it's possible. Like BoiBoi said, Berlin is without a doubt the best place for it. Period. There are countless illegal open air raves and street festivals in the summer as well as great electronic music clubs, and if you have your shit together you can pull here with ease and even fuck in the venue. If you have an exotic bonus like TheDealCloser and greekkamaki, it will only help you and many chicks dig well-dressed "ethnic" guys (for the lack of a better word, since Germany is so white).
Another advice: Go direct.
I only started to cold approach abd to daygame last year, so my experience is sort of limited but I made the observation that you should not beat about bush when you walk up to girl. Like I said, people here don't get subtleties, so don't try Day Bang-style elderly chat but make your intentions clear from the very first moment on. Work on a sonorous voice, show a calm and confident demeanor, tell her what you think of her and go for the number close. No frills, no palm-reading bullshit, no negging. After I tried it a few times, I was surprised how powerful it is. In the last four months I only made about 20 approaches (result: 9 numbers, 5 dates, 1 bang, otherwise very polite and relatively pleasant rejections) but it convinced me enough to do rely more on daygame. Also, several girls, even 7s and 8s, told me that they were never approached by a guy during the day before which made me wonder.
The problem with indirect game is that you might get her into a conversation that feels good and she might even give her your number. But when you ask for a date, she acts completely surprised as she already has a boyfriend and was just trying to friendzone you. Male-female interactions here are very asexual and it's a common move. The female mindset is rather something like: "Why is he not interested in discussing genetically modified corn and renewable energies with me and my boyfriend? Why does he wants to be alone with me and go to a bar?"
TL;DR If you wanna have SNLs, go to Berlin. Use direct game during the day and filter out the boring chicks as there are plenty of them. Don't expect normal female behavior and adjust your game to extremely rational-minded girl types.
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