[Mekorig]

(04-30-2019 08:51 PM)SW15 Wrote:  

Venezuela needs to collapse. The coup would happen even if there was no U.S. interaction. The people are starving. Hyperinflation. Massive corruption. It's just a bad situation.

"But...but...Dugin told me that Maduro`s Venezuela was based and redpilled, and a bulkward against Americaninsky imperialism!!! Only shills would say that!!!"

[Luvianka]

(04-30-2019 08:51 PM)SW15 Wrote:  

Venezuela needs to collapse. The coup would happen even if there was no U.S. interaction. The people are starving. Hyperinflation. Massive corruption. It's just a bad situation.

US 'interaction' is the problem.
This is about the petro-dollar.

[puckerman]

(04-30-2019 07:24 PM)Heuristics Wrote:  

Hoping for a massive influx of female refugees from Venezuela after this neo-con war gets going. Hopefully some of us get big tittied Venezuelan girlfriends before it's all said and done. I certainly want to take home treasure if I'm going to get drafted. ?

This would be outstanding. They are fun and have great attitudes.

[puckerman]

(04-30-2019 08:44 PM)Leonard D Neubache Wrote:  

The Boomers and their ridiculous self centered church of capitalism are a single-generation death cult who by any measure have a legacy a hundred times more murderous than ISIS. These lunatics unironically tell you with a straight face that if bringing in another million Indians to the country raises GDP by ten dollars a head per week then it's a good thing and that anyone who questions that is a fucking commie.

They cannot die quickly enough.

The boomers believe in capitalism. That is news to me.

[The Black Knight]

{delete]

Edit: wrong thread.

[Luvianka]

(04-30-2019 11:44 PM)The Black Knight Wrote:  

So are we going to war with Iran?

Given that Trump is clearly Isreal First now, we just might.

Quote:

What if Iran Retaliates and Shuts Down the Strait of Hormuz?
By Scott Ritter • May 1, 2019


The effort on the part of the Trump administration to shut down Iran’s ability to export oil is predicated on the false notion that the rest of the world will fall in lockstep with U.S. policy. But has President Donald Trump really thought through what would happen to the economic health of the world if Iran retaliates, shutting the Strait of Hormuz, through which much of the world’s oil flows daily?

The Trump administration’s push to reduce Iran’s oil exports to zero has entered a new, critical phase, with the United States refusing to extend the waivers it granted six months ago to eight nations, including China, India, Turkey, Japan, and South Korea, to purchase Iranian oil. Moreover, the United States has refused to allow for a “wind-down” period where impacted nations would be able to gradually wean themselves away from Iranian sources of energy. This means that, effective May 1, any nation purchasing oil from Iran will be subjected to punitive U.S. sanctions.

Iran has responded to the American decision not to extend oil waivers in typical fashion, with Rear Admiral Alireza Tangsiri, the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Command (IRGC) naval forces, warning on April 23 that “if Iran’s benefits in the Strait of Hormuz, which according to international rules is an international waterway, are denied, we will close it”.

This threat was clarified the next day, April 24, by Iran’s Foreign Minister, Javad Zarif, who declared “ships can go through the Strait of Hormuz,” noting that “if the U.S. wanted to continue to observe the rules of engagement, the rules of the game, the channels of communication, the prevailing protocols, then in spite of the fact that we consider U.S. presence in the Persian Gulf as inherently destabilizing, we’re not going to take any action.”


The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most critical sea lanes in the world today, transiting some 18.5 million barrels of crude and refined products per day, representing roughly 20 percent of all oil produced globally. There is universal consensus among energy analysts that any closure of the Strait of Hormuz would result in “catastrophic” consequences for the global economy.


Less certain is whether Iran is serious about carrying out its threats. In July 2018, following the Trump administration’s decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal (the Joint Comprehensive Program of Action, or JCPOA), Iranian President Hassan Rouhani threatened to close the Straits in retaliation for renewed U.S. economic sanctions. Calmer heads prevailed, and Iran ended up taking the diplomatic route, working with the other signatories of the JCPOA to find ways to bypass U.S. sanctions.

In the intervening time, Iran’s efforts at crafting a diplomatic solution have fizzled, with Europe unable (or unwilling) to implement a meaningful alternative to the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) system, a financial network based in Belgium that provides cross-border transfers for over 11,000 financial institutions in more than 200 countries and territories around the world. Because the SWIFT board includes executives from U.S. banks, federal law allows the U.S. government to sanction banks and regulators who operate in violation of U.S. law. As such, any financial transaction involving Iran or any other entity under U.S. sanction would provide a trigger for secondary sanctions to be applied to facilitating institutions and/or persons.

Iran has a history of bypassing U.S. sanctions, and while the Trump administration’s targeting of Iran’s oil exports has caused significant economic harm to the Islamic Republic, Iran remains confident that it would be able to continue to sell oil in enough quantity to keep its economy afloat. In a recent appearance, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, declared that the American effort to block Iran’s oil sales will fail. “The Islamic Republic of Iran will be exporting any amount of oil it would require, at will,” Khamenei said.

There is a major difference between 2018 and today, however. The recent decision by the Trump administration to declare the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Command (IRGC) a terrorist organization has complicated the issue of Iran’s oil sales, and America’s reaction in response.

The IRGC has long been subject to U.S. sanctions. In 2012, the U.S. Department of Treasury, Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), determined that National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) was an “agent or affiliate” of the IRGC and therefore is subject to sanctions under the Iran Threat Reduction and Syria Human Rights Act of 2012 (ITRSHRA). Other Iranian oil companies have likewise been linked to the IRGC, including Kermanshah Petrochemical Industries Co., Pardis Petrochemical Co., Parsian Oil & Gas Development Co., and Shiraz Petrochemical Co.

While in 2012 the United States determined that there was insufficient information to link the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) as an affiliate of the IRGC, under the current sanctions regime imposed in 2018 the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL) and the NITC have been blacklisted in their entirety.

By linking the bulk of Iran’s oil exporting capacity to the IRGC, the United States has opened the door to means other than economic sanctions when it comes to enforcing its “zero” ban on Iranian oil sales. Any Iranian oil in transit would be classified as the property of a terrorist organization, as would any Iranian vessel carrying oil.

Likewise, any vessel from any nation that carried Iranian oil would be classified as providing material support to a terrorist organization, and thereby subject to interdiction, confiscation, and/or destruction. This is the distinction the world is missing when assessing Iran’s current threats to close the Strait of Hormuz. It’s one thing to sanction Iranian entities, including the IRGC—Iran has historically found enough work-arounds to defeat such efforts. It is an altogether different situation if the Unite States opts to physically impede Iran’s ability to ship oil. This would be a red line for Iran, and a trigger for it to shut down all shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

So far the United States has not shown any inclination to physically confront Iranian shipping. Indeed, as Iran’s top military commander Major General Mohammad Baqeri recently told reporters, U.S. naval and commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz continue to respond to the queries transmitted by the IRGC naval forces responsible for securing Iran’s portion of the strategic waterway—an awkward reality given that the IRGC has been designated a terrorist organization, which means the U.S. Navy freely communicates and coordinates with terrorists.

“As oil and commodities of other countries are passing through the Strait of Hormuz, ours are also moving through it,” Bageri observed, declaring that “if our crude is not to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, others’ [crude] will not pass either.” Bageri went on to explain that “this does not mean [that we are going to] close the Strait of Hormuz. We do not intend to shut it unless the enemies’ hostile acts will leave us with no other option. We will be fully capable of closing it on that day.”

The challenge will come when the U.S. effort to bring Iran’s oil exports to zero fails—and most observers believe this will be the case. Iran’s Foreign Minister Javid Zarif has bragged that “Iran has a PhD in sanctions busting,” and historical precedence is on his side. If the Trump administration proves unable to shut down Iran’s ability to sell oil through sanctions, and therefore fails to blunt what it describes as Iran’s “malign activities” in the Middle East, there will be increased pressure to be seen as doing something—anything—to effectuate policy objectives, especially during the lead up to the 2020 presidential election, where the Trump administration would be loath to provide any fodder to its political opponents.

Because any effort to restrict or deny transit through the Strait of Hormuz would be rightfully seen as a provocative act worthy of military intervention, it is highly unlikely that Iran would take any precipitous action in that regard. Instead, Iran would most likely seek a gradual escalation of restrictions grounded in its legal interpretation of the 1982 United Nations’ Convention on the Law of the Sea, which grants Iran control over “territorial waters” extending to a maximum of 12 nautical miles beyond its coastline. Any ships using the northern and eastern routes through the Strait of Hormuz to gain access to the Persian Gulf would have to transit through Iranian waters.

Under the convention, Iran is permitted to deny free transit passage to nations, like the United States, which have not ratified the agreement. If the United States interdicts Iranian shipping involved in the transit of oil, then it is most likely Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz to U.S. shipping, citing the 1982 convention as its justification. The United States would either be compelled to back down (unlikely), or resort to military force, certifying it as the aggressor in the eyes of international law.

The military debate over Iran’s ability to close the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. ability to respond to such a threat, is moot—no insurance company will cover any oil tanker seeking to transit contested waters. The economic impact of any closure will be immediate, catastrophic and sustained. Even if the United States prevailed in a military conflict over the Strait of Hormuz (and it is not certain it would do so), any victory would be pyrrhic in nature, with the United States sacrificing its national economic health, and that of the rest of the world, on an alter of hubris that fails to advance the national interest in any meaningful fashion.

Source: https://www.theamericanconservative.com/...of-hormuz/

Answer = Yes!

[Luvianka]

[Heuristics]

(04-30-2019 10:54 PM)Mekorig Wrote:  

(04-30-2019 08:51 PM)SW15 Wrote:  

Venezuela needs to collapse. The coup would happen even if there was no U.S. interaction. The people are starving. Hyperinflation. Massive corruption. It's just a bad situation.

"But...but...Dugin told me that Maduro`s Venezuela was based and redpilled, and a bulkward against Americaninsky imperialism!!! Only shills would say that!!!"

haha is this a caricature of some poster or dominant viewpoint on the forum? Putinbots?

[nomadbrah]

I don't care about Maduro, I hope Trump fails, so he learns to not trust zionists.

If there is one thing that exceeds Trump's desire to cuck for zionists, it's his vanity. He does not like to look a fool.

[Going strong]

One might start to wonder if the real target all along was never Venezuela, but Cuba.

I mean, things currently stand like this: Maduro has not received his (not costly, mind you, your taxes wouldn't be raised) Hellfire missile, and instead he rejoices, exercises (the dude has lost weight and looks rejuvenated, happy as fuck) and actually strengthens his grip on power - but meanwhile, Cuba is about to lose the whole imported oil from Venezuela, plus the Helms-Burton exemptions lifted (which could soon spark a vicious economic war with the EU that swore to retaliate), plus a possible, quote, "full blockade". Grim perspectives indeed for Cuba.

So at the end of the day, Maduro survives and laughs (and sends its oil and gold to Turkey, bye bye Havana), but Cuba meanwhile will suffer like never before. Was it the goal all along?

Mind you, I don't see how the US could accommodate millions and millions of (Cuban, if you know what it means: real tough, and street-sharp, people) refugees in Florida, if the Cuban government is ultimately strangled, but who knows, maybe there is a master-plan somewhere, for Cuba?

In any case, one also has to wonder what Cuba is gaining, today, by backing Maduro?, if Maduro for the foreseeable future can not export anything of value anymore to Cuba. Where is the net gain for Cuba, now that Maduro cannot export oil? Keeping face, sure, but what else?

So if I were the (well-educated) Cuban president, I would urgently negotiate with Guaido and/or Leopoldo Lopez (or who knows, with President Trump himself, a NK-like scenario), to find a new ally, an ally that will be able to export oil soon. And I would do it fast, before the Russians hurriedly replace Cuban officers with their own, with Maduro's blessing.

[PapayaTapper]

(05-01-2019 10:20 AM)Going strong Wrote:  

One might start to wonder if the real target all along was never Venezuela, but Cuba.

I mean, things currently stand like this: Maduro has not received his (not costly, mind you, your taxes wouldn't be raised) Hellfire missile, and instead he rejoices, exercises (the dude has lost weight and looks rejuvenated, happy as fuck) and actually strengthens his grip on power - but meanwhile, Cuba is about to lose the whole imported oil from Venezuela, plus the Helms-Burton exemptions lifted (which could soon spark a vicious economic war with the EU that swore to retaliate), plus a possible, quote, "full blockade". Grim perspectives indeed for Cuba.

So at the end of the day, Maduro survives and laughs (and sends its oil and gold to Turkey, bye bye Havana), but Cuba meanwhile will suffer like never before. Was it the goal all along?

Mind you, I don't see how the US could accommodate millions and millions of (Cuban, if you know what it means: real tough, and street-sharp, people) refugees in Florida, if the Cuban government is ultimately strangled, but who knows, maybe there is a master-plan somewhere, for Cuba?

In any case, one also has to wonder what Cuba is gaining, today, by backing Maduro?, if Maduro for the foreseeable future can not export anything of value anymore to Cuba. Where is the net gain for Cuba, now that Maduro cannot export oil? Keeping face, sure, but what else?

So if I were the (well-educated) Cuban president, I would urgently negotiate with Guaido and/or Leopoldo Lopez (or who knows, with President Trump himself, a NK-like scenario), to find a new ally, an ally that will be able to export oil soon. And I would do it fast, before the Russians hurriedly replace Cuban officers with their own, with Maduro's blessing.

^ Pressure on Cuba would certainly be one way to make sure to keep Florida red in 2020.

[CaptainChardonnay]

[Going strong]

Rumor has it that Maduro, yesterday, was about to climb aboard a plane (a Bombardier GE), heading in panic to Havana. And supposedly, the Russians ordered him off the plane.

Well, as I wrote here, thread-55800...pid1951687 , Maduro has no valid option to flee, anywhere. So, I am surprised by this rumor.

I might see, maybe, the Russians or Turks (very reluctantly) giving asylum to Maduro, but, in my opinion the Cubans cannot accept Maduro on their territory.
I was in Cuba not long ago, and saw that Maduro is loved (to an extent, but quite sincerely) by most people here, as "a brave hero who'll give his life for the cause" . So, if Cuba were to take Maduro in as a defeated coward, it'd be catastrophic for the global impetus and self-esteem of Cuban people.

So I think that for Maduro, there is no other exit from Venezuela than (victory or) death. Being death by Hellfire, or back-stabbing assassination by his caretakers, disguised as death while fighting (like for Allende). Or alternatively, Defense Minister Padrino could listen to his own family (which has just posted an emotional video urging him to turn against Maduro), and maybe detain Maduro, eventually sending him to The Hague or some? That would make Padrino a major global actor and maybe allow him to lead a transitory government alongside Guaido (or Leopoldo)?

[Reinhard von Lohengramm]

Imagine unironically supporting (((CIA))) backed rebels against a Russian ally in 2019.

(05-01-2019 03:58 PM)Going strong Wrote:  

Rumor has it that Maduro, yesterday, was about to climb aboard a plane (a Bombardier GE), heading in panic to Havana. And supposedly, the Russians ordered him off the plane.

This is probably just U.S. misinformation to try to demoralize the government. At this point I imagine Pompeo and Bolton are becoming frustrated that Guaido is a total failure, and are becoming more desperate, so they make these kinds of claims.

[Reinhard von Lohengramm]

Tucker Carlson has come out against US involvement in Venezuela.

[Once Was Not]

Yes, Russia is now getting all the blame, what a surprise. The coup would have been quick and easy if only Russia didn't stop him from getting on that plane. How dare Russia interfere in our backyard, our hemisphere?!?!?!?!?? The audacity. It's like there is no self awareness here, for fucks sake you can't go out of your way to piss of countries such as Russia and then act incredulous when they don't just roll over and play ball. Oh right I forgot, Ukraine was just a happy accident, a totally normal and organic coup or whatever.

Anyway. Not liking what I'm hearing from conservatives. It's like there exists no psychological barrier between the decision to deploy troops. Just way too eager to overthrow Maduro and send troops in if necessary. It shouldn't be an option on the table whatsoever. That's madness. Not one death would be worth "liberating" the fucking Venezuelans. I don't give a shit about them or that country. We've had communist Venezuela in existence for how long now? And all of the sudden it's just intolerable having them there. Something must be done. Right. Now.

More like, something is being done to make politicians all worked up over this. Yes, we must give them Freedom Loving Democracy. And we will start by telling them who their leader is for them. How democratic.

Why? Why can't we just mind our own fucking business and work on our own damn country for once? We have a mountain of problems but regime change and throwing troops away is much more critical? Stop talking in Spanish. Stop saying we're with the Venezuelan people. Shut up about "Worldwide Citizen" bullshit. Start showing some damn loyalty to your own country and realize the average American couldn't care less about this. I can't believe I just voted for Rick Scott to the senate and he's already advocating to send troops to die in some irrelevant completely unnecessary situation.

I'm so done with politics. Conservatives have no ideas besides going to war or antagonizing with every meanie poopy head on the planet. Liberals don't even believe in the nation state as a concept and still do regime change anyway. It's all so tiring. I feel nothing but disgust anytime a politician from my country speaks. With the exception of Rand Paul.

[Reinhard von Lohengramm]

(05-01-2019 04:19 PM)Once Was Not Wrote:  

Yes, Russia is now getting all the blame, what a surprise. The coup would have been quick and easy if only Russia didn't stop him from getting on that plane. How dare Russia interfere in our backyard, our hemisphere?!?!?!?!?? The audacity. It's like there is no self awareness here, for fucks sake you can't go out of your way to piss of countries such as Russia and then act incredulous when they don't just roll over and play ball. Oh right I forgot, Ukraine was just a happy accident, a totally normal and organic coup or whatever.

Yeah and apparently "Hezbollah" is there in Venezuela too (?). Now they're talking about Iran as well. Isn't it great how everything circles back around to Iran?

[Once Was Not]

This is the kind of shit my politicians will pull out of their ass to drag us into another disastrous mess of a military invasion.

Russia has secretly installed nuke missiles in Venezuela, US politician claims in chilling echo of Cuban Missile Crisis

Quote:

RUSSIA has secretly installed nuclear missiles in Venezuela a US politician has sensationally claimed in a chilling echo of the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Republican congressman Mario Diaz-Balart said he believes Vladimir Putin's hidden nukes are now a direct threat to the "national security" of the United States.

He made his astonishing allegations hours after Venezuela was pushed to the brink of civil war when opposition leader Juan Guaido called for rival Nicolas Maduro to be ousted from office.

Diaz-Balart told Fox News if Maduro stays in power it could be "an open door for the Russians and for the Chinese and for others to increase their activity against our national security interest."

Journalist Tucker Carlson then asked: "Are you suggesting they are going to invade?”

“The closest we ever came to nuclear war was because the Russians put missiles, right, nuclear missiles in Cuba,” replied Diaz-Balart.

“Are you saying the Russians will put nuclear missiles in Venezuela?” Carlson asked.

“What I am suggesting is that they are already there,” answered Diaz-Balart, without offering any evidence to back up his claim.

[Going strong]

In any case, Soros and the Globalist Establishment have already (more or less) written Maduro off, and are actively preparing their next Reformed-Chavista candidate, for the Venezuelan presidential elections (to be held once Maduro is dead or in The Hague).

It's a full-Establishment Soros-approved wunderkid, named Temir Porras (I know a female cousin of this dude, amusingly) and residing in the comfort of a wealthy neighborhood here in Paris.

So we might have an election at the end of the year, pitting Leopoldo Lopez (or J. Guaido) against Temir Porras. In both cases, Cuba (and Russia) would get nothing of value from either candidate, by the way.

[nomadbrah]

Seems like the incompetent affirmative action cucks in the CIA failed as predicted.

You can't keep hiring people based on political ideology over skills for decades and maintain competence. This is the second failed coup they attempt.

Trump looks like a buffoon, dare I say, again, while his boomer base is sitting at home frothing and narcissistically lashing out at him for making them feel weak by proxy.

The way America is seemingly failing in everything they do, I really do wonder if they could even win a war against Iran if they tried. I don't think so. Paper tiger exposed.

[It_is_my_time]

(05-01-2019 05:36 PM)nomadbrah Wrote:  

Seems like the incompetent affirmative action cucks in the CIA failed as predicted.

You can't keep hiring people based on political ideology over skills for decades and maintain competence. This is the second failed coup they attempt.

Trump looks like a buffoon, dare I say, again, while his boomer base is sitting at home frothing and narcissistically lashing out at him for making them feel weak by proxy.

The way America is seemingly failing in everything they do, I really do wonder if they could even win a war against Iran if they tried. I don't think so. Paper tiger exposed.

I keep thinking Iran would be the USA's "Stalingrad". We get bogged down there and everything collapses.

Iran doesn't have to beat the USA, they just have to drag it out. The US public is a mix of war weary and simply don't care. A draft would likely be needed and it would be VERY unpopular. Add in the economic upheaval and starting a conventional war in Iran is a disastrous idea.

Iran is over twice the size of Iraq with a far more advanced military. And that doesn't even bring up what would happen if Russia or China gave them any direct support against the USA. Would the USA be willing to have 20,000 military deaths, hundreds of thousands of military injured, for a war half way across the world?

[Leonard D Neubache]

I'm starting to think that foreign intervention is a coping mechanism for a chunk of America that are so obese they have erectile dysfunction.

"We're gonna fuck them socialists so hard!"

Sure, buddy. Send enough troops and you might just feel that forgotten tingle in your nut sack for the first time in decades.

What's just as amusing is imagining how the Democrats are squaring this mess. Socialism good. Russia bad. Does not compute.

[infowarrior1]

(05-02-2019 12:48 AM)Leonard D Neubache Wrote:  

I'm starting to think that foreign intervention is a coping mechanism for a chunk of America that are so obese they have erectile dysfunction.

"We're gonna fuck them socialists so hard!"

Sure, buddy. Send enough troops and you might just feel that forgotten tingle in your nut sack for the first time in decades.

What's just as amusing is imagining how the Democrats are squaring this mess. Socialism good. Russia bad. Does not compute.

80% of the obesity crisis in America can be solved by cutting out sugary drinks/food and refined carbs.

Replaced with more vegetables,meats and dairy including butter.

Cheering for intervention seems to be easier than eating right.

[scotian]

[img]https://i.postimg.cc/mtj2xnXP/3-DD50-E0-...BAB6-A.jpg" loading="lazy" alt="[Image: 3-DD50-E0-F-A77-E-4-E65-A043-59-F3155-BAB6-A.jpg]" class="mycode_img img-responsive" />[/img]

[Going strong]

(05-02-2019 12:48 AM)Leonard D Neubache Wrote:  

What's just as amusing is imagining how the Democrats are squaring this mess. Socialism good. Russia bad. Does not compute.

They square it all right: Socialism good. Russia not socialist anymore; OK, maybe Russia a bit socialist, but Russians White, so Russia bad, insist, bad. Does compute. Whiteness (very bad) overcomes Remnants-of-socialism (moderately good).

The hatred that MSM, the Clintons, Obamas and the "Democrats" in general, display and feel for Russia, is not political, it's ethnic and religious. For them, Russia is the last big kingdom of bad (totally) White (mostly) Christians. So the hatred of the US Leftists against Russia is understandable. They might like the bit of socialism left in Russia, but they hate the Whiteness of Russia.

Anyway, I see your



and raise it:


^Venezuelan woman killed a few hours ago by Maduro's soldiers or irregulars, and chosen by J. Guaido as symbol

The name, though, Jurubith...