Quote: (09-17-2017 08:55 PM)Seth_Rose Wrote:
Cheers, man! I was following hoping the Cardinals would pull out, which they did. If you post your picks for next week I may mirror you haha. Have you been doing this strategy for a while or is it something new you're trying?
This was my first week betting. I tried to follow the home underdog strategy, particularly with underdogs with less than +2.5 points. For this week, there were only two games that fit into that: Jacksonville v. Tennessee (I picked Jax, they lost) and Dallas and Denver (I had Denver and they won). I also picked the Rams (they were a favorite), thinking they'd crush the Redskins, but they lost. So I ended up 1-2 on the week. If I stuck to those principals I would have been 1-1. Indy was a big home underdog too, but they got killed last week by the Rams so I passed on it, but they would have covered this week. Anyway, I may try and implement this strategy more. However, Disco's parlays seem enticing.
The reason I started betting this week is because I heard about MyBookie.ag on Joey Diaz's podcast. The offer was for 100% match on your deposit over $100--seemed like a good deal. I'll give it a few weeks and see how things go. If someone wants to sign up shoot me a PM because I may be able to get more money.
I went 2-1 today in the NFL. I am now 3-3 this season. My picks and explanations are below:
1.) Colts +1 over the Browns: See my above home underdog strategy when home underdog spread is less than 2.5 points. This strategy is 2-0 for me thus far.
2.) Titans -3 over Seahawks: Not part of my strategy, but Titans seemed to be overwhelming favorite.
3.) Broncos -3 over Bills: This pick flopped. It was the biggest public bet this week (Maybe that says something??). It seemed so obvious the Broncos would win after crushing the Cowboys, but yet, they lost.
I am a bit happy for that loss though because it only confirms the home underdog strategy. In fact, the home underdogs are 6-2 so far this week against the spread. Was almost 7-1 because the Lions lost by 4 points and the spread was 3 or 3.5--they were close and would've won the game to if a last second TD wasn't overturned! There are 2 more home underdogs left this week, Cardinals and Redskins. I am not too confident both those teams will beat the spread, but still, the system looks solid.
For next week I will be disciplined and bet only using the home underdog strategy, particularly focusing on underdogs with spreads less than 2.5 and greater than 7.5. I doubt underdogs will always perform this well, but will study this strategy for the remainder of the season.
When odds for Week 4 are out I will post them! And of course, looking forward to another parlay from Disco, though they are a bit too risky for me.
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Not that I bother with NFL these days- market is too efficient before playoffs to bother much with. Anytime TD scorers, match up related player props and injury news are the only major angles and you won't get much $ down.
