[Entropy]

AUD interbank rate at 4.25. That was a surprise. Will this slow down their economy since CHINA is slowing down? expectation was that they will cut rate to 4.00. they didnt.

they didnt hike the rate. they didnt cut the rate. they just kept it where it was: 4.25. That created a surprise. the housing market/credit in AUD has been slowing down, they could benefit from a rate cut...the unemployment numbers have been slowly deteriorating or uneven at best...which in turn has put pressure on consumer spending which shows a gradually declining retail sales number. Yet, the AUD didnt cut rate. Even if AUD had cut rate to 4.00 AUD will still have the highest exchange rate among the developed nations.
Now, given the positive NFP number for the USA coupled with the RBA maintaining rate at 4.25...it is RISK ON for the AUD/USD.

Below, i have attached two charts. EUR/AUD and AUD/CAD.

It shows the technical setups before AUD announced keeping rate at 4.25. Clearly, the technical setup was bullishly primed for the surprise. Meaning: that it can be interpreted that the technical setup anticipates the fundamental news. (of course, i didnt take the trade, i would be crazy to trade exchange rate news, regardless of whatever technical analysis is saying to me. Which goes to show that SOMETIMES technical analysis can be use to "read" the action of the people-in-the-know before the news hit the wires.) It worked splendidly:within minutes AUD/CAD and EUR/AUD both appreciated over +90 pips in profit.

charts attached below with annotations.

[Entropy]

eur/aud short at 1.2238. b/e point at 1.2220. chart attached.

TP = 1.2182.

(NOTE: there is a broad section rally in the EUR due to the greek news....basically, i am fading it using the AUD)

[Entropy]

(02-03-2012 02:53 AM)Entropy Wrote:  

Well, i couldnt post a link to my earlier setup charts(it is on a trading forum). I have less than 10 posts. so.

anyways, there was a setup earlier in gbp/sgd. that is the british pound aka cable against the singapore dollar. It was a long position at confluence spot of TL and S/R....granted the fundamental data from SGD is stronger than that of GBP...i took the trade as purely technical play...otherwise, i prefer to align fundamental with technicals. This disequilibrium in fundamental is also why the trade has a very precise exit point at +100 pips gain. (if it reaches it. currently, it is at +61 pips.) there is also the issue of GBP pmi news that may interferes with things....comin up in 2 hours also. Anyways, below is the setup chart.

GBP/SGD eventually went up to reach price target for +100pips. Unfortunately, my breakeven policy has kicked me out of the trade for only +5pips profit. oh well.

[Julio]

Hello Entropy and thanks for all the wondreful graphs

I am lost is it me or is this market full of sheep?
Still no agreement from Greece strikes public unrest so on and so forth maybe i am to engrossed in euro negativity but to me this move higher is just an oppurtunity to sell : question is how much pain to i have to bear
i am willing to see 1.3420 so i have a large window of oppurtunity from my 1.32 level of yesterday

The way we moved yesterday proved to me that the usa were the main culprits reacting on a headlie but thats their way and with the imm short euro the herd came in
So i average now not believing in any positive outcome medium term
euro 1.3190 1.3330
gbp/usd 1.5980 1.5840

[Entropy]

(02-07-2012 10:52 AM)Entropy Wrote:  

eur/aud short at 1.2238. b/e point at 1.2220. chart attached.

TP = 1.2182.

(NOTE: there is a broad section rally in the EUR due to the greek news....basically, i am fading it using the AUD)

I closed the trade out at BREAKEVEN without any gain or loss. I chose the wrong level for entry. I beleive that the right level should have been 1.2263 using the daily S/R rather than the H4 S/R with levels at 1.2238 region.

Anyways, chart attached with annotations.

[Entropy]

GBP/JPY short at 122.56 range.

[Entropy]

(02-08-2012 06:44 AM)Entropy Wrote:  

GBP/JPY short at 122.56 range.

UPDATE:
After price moved by +40 pips and +22 pips, i B/E the trade. It is now a risk free trade. I already pocketed an average of +31 pips in profit at H1 support zone(122.22). I am leaving the rest to do as it pleases. chart attached below.

[Entropy]

(02-08-2012 03:02 AM)julio26 Wrote:  

Hello Entropy and thanks for all the wondreful graphs

I am lost is it me or is this market full of sheep?
Still no agreement from Greece strikes public unrest so on and so forth maybe i am to engrossed in euro negativity but to me this move higher is just an oppurtunity to sell : question is how much pain to i have to bear
i am willing to see 1.3420 so i have a large window of oppurtunity from my 1.32 level of yesterday

The way we moved yesterday proved to me that the usa were the main culprits reacting on a headlie but thats their way and with the imm short euro the herd came in
So i average now not believing in any positive outcome medium term
euro 1.3190 1.3330
gbp/usd 1.5980 1.5840

JULIO, thanks for the commentaries and views of EUR/USD.

Same here. I am NEGATIVE on the EURO. But if the USD continues a string of positive economic numbers it may create a risk on situation for the EURO...and relief rally too. But still...i am just too negative on the eur....like you i am watching a level to sell into with the right confluence, of course. My levels are 1.3471 and 1.3527.

Chart attached below.

[Entropy]

(02-08-2012 03:02 AM)julio26 Wrote:  

Hello Entropy and thanks for all the wondreful graphs

I am lost is it me or is this market full of sheep?
Still no agreement from Greece strikes public unrest so on and so forth maybe i am to engrossed in euro negativity but to me this move higher is just an oppurtunity to sell : question is how much pain to i have to bear
i am willing to see 1.3420 so i have a large window of oppurtunity from my 1.32 level of yesterday

The way we moved yesterday proved to me that the usa were the main culprits reacting on a headlie but thats their way and with the imm short euro the herd came in
So i average now not believing in any positive outcome medium term
euro 1.3190 1.3330
gbp/usd 1.5980 1.5840

for the GBP/USD the levels that i am watching are: 1.5929, 1.6084, 1.6064, 1.6463. Of course, i will be looking for the right confluence.

[Entropy]

(02-08-2012 03:02 AM)julio26 Wrote:  

Hello Entropy and thanks for all the wondreful graphs

I am lost is it me or is this market full of sheep?
Still no agreement from Greece strikes public unrest so on and so forth maybe i am to engrossed in euro negativity but to me this move higher is just an oppurtunity to sell : question is how much pain to i have to bear
i am willing to see 1.3420 so i have a large window of oppurtunity from my 1.32 level of yesterday

The way we moved yesterday proved to me that the usa were the main culprits reacting on a headlie but thats their way and with the imm short euro the herd came in
So i average now not believing in any positive outcome medium term
euro 1.3190 1.3330
gbp/usd 1.5980 1.5840

in the meantime, i will be scalping the eur/usd.
e.g. check the bEFORE and AFTER CHART BELOW:
the 1st chart was before price reach price targets...the 2nd chart was after price reach price target.

r/r was 1:3.2 or 3.2 R.

[Entropy]

(02-08-2012 06:44 AM)Entropy Wrote:  

GBP/JPY short at 122.56 range.

Just doing another quick update to show the progress of the trade. GBP/JPY has moved into profit by +74 pips. Of course, has stated earlier a +31 pips profit has been locked and put away...the rest is in set and forget mode. Probably liquidate when it gets to 120.10 or reverse to breakeven or intersect the weekly trendline.

[Entropy]

(02-08-2012 07:08 AM)Entropy Wrote:  

for the GBP/USD the levels that i am watching are: 1.5929, 1.6084, 1.6064, 1.6463. Of course, i will be looking for the right confluence.

GBP/USD

[Entropy]

(02-08-2012 07:08 AM)Entropy Wrote:  

for the GBP/USD the levels that i am watching are: 1.5929, 1.6084, 1.6064, 1.6463. Of course, i will be looking for the right confluence.

GBP/USD has dropped additional +80 PIPS in profit from 1.5877. And a total of +130 pips in profit from 1.5929.

I am closing this trade. It is approaching an area of bullish confluence. Risk/Reward = 1:3.2 or 3.2R. chart attached below:

P.S. i wasnt even looking at GBP/USD short until julio26 mentioned it in this post. Thanks, man.
. I entered a bit late...the confluence spot of 1.5929 would have been perfect, but, i enter anyways at 1.5877...risking -25 pips to make +80 pips. Once again, thanks julio26

[Entropy]

Today was a busy day for me.

Closed out my negative EUR/AUD bullish trade for zero pips =zero profit. I was lucky on this one. Before and After.

Closed out long eur/usd for 3.2R. Before and After.

closed out short gbp/usd for 3.2R. Before and After.

closed out 1st leg of gbp/jpy short for 1.2R. One leg still remaining and appreciating profit...currently up by +112 pips in profit. Before and After.

closed out short NZDJPY for 2.04R.(didnt get a chance to post the chart of this one.)

It has been quite a busy day...and yet, i totally miss the USDCAD short and USD/SGD short.

You cannot catch them all.

Total R for the day = 9.64 R = 9.64 return on risk. That is the highest in single day for me. A record. Given that i risk 1% of net asset per trade...that makes 9.64% return within 24hrs.

To avoid over-trading, i am turning off the monitor. As a fitting ending to a VERY PROFITABLE day, i present:



AND of course:

[Julio]

Good morning,

Nothing to comment on Greece and eurozone that we haven't said already...market chooses at its peril to ignore the obvious

gbp/usd failed short of 1.5940 see 1.5780 as support initially
usd/chf although broken 9110 has no momentum to downside which is worrying
euro/gbp has been subject of large buying this week so i would epect 84.20 to sell

[Julio]

usd yen watch for reverse head and shoulders forming break of 77.30 sees 78.20

[Entropy]

EUR/gbp. SHORT at 0.8397

i had to do some stuff earlier. i couldnt post. but i did save the chart.

[Entropy]

(02-09-2012 03:03 AM)Entropy Wrote:  

EUR/gbp. SHORT at 0.8397

i had to do some stuff earlier. i couldnt post. but i did save the chart.

Doing a quick update. EUR/GBP has reached B/E point that fast. I set the B/E point to +10pips because of the S/R and the major GBP news coming out...

anyways, chart attached.

[Entropy]

(02-09-2012 02:45 AM)julio26 Wrote:  

Good morning,

Nothing to comment on Greece and eurozone that we haven't said already...market chooses at its peril to ignore the obvious

the euro/greek situation reminds me of this:

(02-09-2012 02:45 AM)julio26 Wrote:  

gbp/usd failed short of 1.5940 see 1.5780 as support initially

1.5780 is a major support area. You are correct.

(02-09-2012 02:45 AM)julio26 Wrote:  

usd/chf although broken 9110 has no momentum to downside which is worrying

I dont feel comfortable with any of the CHF at this time.

(02-09-2012 02:45 AM)julio26 Wrote:  

euro/gbp has been subject of large buying this week so i would epect 84.20 to sell

I took a short at the confluence point of 0.8397....close to the 0.8400 round number.

(02-09-2012 02:46 AM)julio26 Wrote:  

usd yen watch for reverse head and shoulders forming break of 77.30 sees 78.20

what time frame are you viewing the inverse H & S pattern?

[Julio]

(02-09-2012 03:31 AM)Entropy Wrote:  

I dont feel comfortable with any of the CHF at this time.

Yes me neither i don't want to get caught

(02-09-2012 03:31 AM)Entropy Wrote:  

what time frame are you viewing the inverse H & S pattern?

its not quite a reverse but looking at 02 jan onwards

[Entropy]

(02-09-2012 03:03 AM)Entropy Wrote:  

EUR/gbp. SHORT at 0.8397

i had to do some stuff earlier. i couldnt post. but i did save the chart.

EUR/GBP has appreciated by +26 pips. the GBP manufacturing production beats to the upside:coming in at 1.0% instead of the expected 0.3%. Further lending fuel to the short EUR/GBP. Like i said before, sometimes, technical setups anticipate fundamental release.

Initial setup.

1st update.

the 2nd update is the chart below...showing the growing pips in the direction of the short. (caveat emptor: GBP data on quantitative easing and MPC rate is coming out at 7:00am EST. The minimum bid rate, the purchase facility, official bank rate, etc. the results can potentially throw a wrinkle in the calculus of things. )

[Entropy]

(02-09-2012 05:15 AM)Entropy Wrote:  

(02-09-2012 03:03 AM)Entropy Wrote:  

EUR/gbp. SHORT at 0.8397

i had to do some stuff earlier. i couldnt post. but i did save the chart.

EUR/GBP has appreciated by +26 pips. the GBP manufacturing production beats to the upside:coming in at 1.0% instead of the expected 0.3%. Further lending fuel to the short EUR/GBP. Like i said before, sometimes, technical setups anticipate fundamental release.

Initial setup.

1st update.

the 2nd update is the chart below...showing the growing pips in the direction of the short. (caveat emptor: GBP data on quantitative easing and MPC rate is coming out at 7:00am EST. The minimum bid rate, the purchase facility, official bank rate, etc. the results can potentially throw a wrinkle in the calculus of things. )

The GBP rate news and monetary policy news hit and this further propel the EUR/GBP in its previous technical direction to a low of 0.8335. The short direction. Price target of 0.8352 was reached. To a tune of +45 pips. return on risk was 3R for this trade.

Here is the initial setup chart before the moves really began.

Here is the update #1 to the trade as it progresses.

Here is the update #2 as it progresses even further.

The final chart is below after price hits the TP to a tune of +45pips = 3R :

[Julio]

Entropy,

What leverage are you using for trading and what platform?

[Entropy]

Long AUD/CAD. 1.0683. due to the macro news of trade balance coming approximately 7hrs from now....for both the CAD and the USD...whatever seriously affects the USD also affects the CAD...but not vice versa. This trade balance news hit at 8:30am EST. US trade balance COULD beat expectation given the devalued dollar and the 8.8% unemployment rate...who knows?...i dont. CAD has always been aggressive with their export...but the devalued USdollar has been cutting into their margins, especially with the CAD appreciating against the USD in the spot market. But this is just guessing...

Bottomline: i will be very aggressive in B/E the trade. At +1.0697 i will B/E this trade...1st PRICE TARGET IS 1.07169. The final price target is 1.0753, anyways let see what happens.

anyways, chart attached below:

[Entropy]

SGD/JPY long.

B/E point is at 61.86. 1st TP = 62.08. final TP = 62.21