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11-06-2018, 12:13 AM
Higgs it's not just Trump, but rather most Americans in general have never seen a third world country and what's in store for their children once our modern, safe bubble gets popped and turns latino shithole del norte.
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11-06-2018, 01:13 AM
If you go far enough south the Latinos run pretty clean places while insisting they aren't Latino.
This is my first big even year election I am missing as an expat, but the slight chance the deep blue pantsuit embassy staff put me in a black bag instead of handing me a ballot is enough for me to play spectator and offer prayers for MAGA. It seems clear the GOP is going to enlarge their margin in the senate while the house and state level offices are fights.
I expect the published polls were selected to feed pantsuit hopes, and pray the actual polls yield pantsuit nopes. Oddly the only election emails I have received abroad have been from the Pantsuits. In the past I stupidly tendered donations to a few Ron Paul campaigns and one Obama campaign. Republicans appear to be handicapping themselves going out of their way to avoid the slightest appearance of foreign interference. Thankfully my home district in old country is a safe Republican stronghold (John Shimkus) where the only win would have been running myself on a MAGA platform.
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11-06-2018, 09:04 AM
Reminder not to believe the exit polls you see released early today. In 2016 those all had Hillary becoming the next President. They are typically unreliable.
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11-06-2018, 10:19 AM
Quote: (11-06-2018 09:04 AM)Turnus Wrote:
Reminder not to believe the exit polls you see released early today. In 2016 those all had Hillary becoming the next President. They are typically unreliable.
Or 2000 Bush/Gore. Or...
Exit polls are the dog whistle for the LCD.
“….and we will win, and you will win, and we will keep on winning, and eventually you will say… we can’t take all of this winning, …please Mr. Trump …and I will say, NO, we will win, and we will keep on winning”.
- President Donald J. Trump
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11-06-2018, 11:27 AM
So speaking about Nate Silver, I just checked my email and saw this message from Predictit:
You all know Nate Silver, the famous prognosticator and founder of fivethirtyeight.com. Great guy. Except that he just called you “dumb”.
Okay, not exactly, he said prices on PredictIt are dumb. And it’s true there are some markets where your expectations and his are a bit out of whack.
For example, you’ve got the GOP at 58% to win Arizona's Senate race. Nate is at only 38%. You’re pricing Claire McCaskill at only 39% to keep her Missouri Senate seat. Nate is much more confident at 57%. And, the Democrats to win the House? He thinks it’s nearly a foregone conclusion at 88%. You’re hedging your bets at 72%.
So who’s right? We’ll know that later today. In the meantime, are you comfortable being called "dumb"? If not, get back on the site and vote with your money. Or maybe you want to take the advice of an expert and hedge your bets.
Either way, please spread the word about @PredictIt on Twitter and Facebook and let’s have some fun today. And may the best side win… for now. Remember, 2020 is just around the corner!
Team PredictIt
Quote: (09-21-2018 09:31 AM)kosko Wrote:
For the folks who stay ignorant and hating and not improving their situation during these Trump years, it will be bleak and cold once the good times stop.
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11-06-2018, 11:50 AM
My voting location was practically empty. In a precinct that was suppose to be blue wave. Looks like a good sign.
"Boy ya'll want power, God I hope you never get it." -Senator Graham
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11-06-2018, 12:15 PM
Republican turnout in Florida is supposedly in the stratosphere. Democrats were leading by 80-90,000 votes in 2016 in early voting, with Trump still winning the state. This time it was only about 22,000, and Trump's voters seem to be turning out. I'm still worried because the panhandle (which we'll need heavy turnout in) got hit by the hurricane but so far, so good.
On the other hand, things don't look as good in Indiana at the moment.
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11-06-2018, 12:58 PM
All the liberal voters I know are acting like morally righteous crusaders today-- they've even got the 'I Voted!' stickers to prove it. It's laughable.
We're in for a potential meltdown of epic proportions.
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11-06-2018, 01:16 PM
Long lines (2+ hours long waits) in the hipster / gentrified areas of my deep blue city in a deep blue state. Not sure what the turnout is in my neighborhood (not very hipster). I'll know this evening when I go vote.
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11-06-2018, 01:25 PM
Latest Larry Schweikart Updates:
“Updates (that I’m allowed to share):
*Watkins appears to have held his seat in KS (take one off the D “flip list”
*Per Baris: Daryl Issa told him last night that “his” (Issa’s) is the only CA seat we’ll lose. (take 1-2 more off the Ds “flip list”)
*Sessions apparently is going to lose his seat (add one back)
*FL looking VERY good (but I can’t say more).
*Per Cuyahoga GOP: Ds were “up” in the county in their early/absentee vote (over 2016), Rs were “up more” (I’m sure he means as a %). Great news, as a D must come out of Cuyahoga up 150,000 to take the state.
*Anecdotal OH: hearing last couple of days of early voting in Claremont, Warren, and Butler (all red) were long lines to early vote.
*IA1 #s show that Ds were up in absentee/early over 2016 by a little over 1, Rs down .08, and Rod Blum won by 7 in 2016, so he may be safe.
As of now, 9:46 AZ time, Ds have lost a net two off their flip list and are at around 28 flippable seats. Magic # is 23. We expect to gain 2 in MN, which would make it 26. We are “hoping” that AZ1 flips as it seems, which would make it 25, and then we’d only have to hold 2 more seats on that entire list to hold the House. So far, so good.”
“….and we will win, and you will win, and we will keep on winning, and eventually you will say… we can’t take all of this winning, …please Mr. Trump …and I will say, NO, we will win, and we will keep on winning”.
- President Donald J. Trump
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11-06-2018, 01:31 PM
^^^
I’m getting a midterm erection.
Take care of those titties for me.
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11-06-2018, 01:37 PM
Huge turnout in my blue district in NYC (some local positions only had one D choice at all, no other party).
Poll workers said it was busier than 2016.
Almost everyone looked left-leaning... 6’4” bad posture doughy guy being led by his short girlfriend, he wore a bright pink “Kittens Academy” shirt (wat?)... wonder what side he’s for...
Lots of smug expressions.
Good mix of newer yuppie transplants and older school neighborhood folks - lots of people of various backgrounds. I have heard many older minorities vocalize conservative views, but nobody today looked the part.
Maybe some are tired of Cuomo at least...