[Enigma]

(07-21-2016 07:30 AM)El Chinito loco Wrote:  

(07-21-2016 07:23 AM)LEMONed IScream Wrote:  

Less presence in defending other countries around the world would reduce the USA's influence and strategic reach. That may be better for the taxpayer but it sounds highly unlikely regarding foreign policy strategies. As a policymaker I'd find that sort of measure myopic. If the US were any other sort of country I'd find it natural, but regarding the last decades of strategic narrative building, it's unlikely and odd at best. Only someone like Trump would suggest it to be honest, and I do like Trump, not sure how right he is on this one though. You may gain in terms of tax burden but lose in other factors.

Trump's whole foreign policy initiative is using more of America's soft power. The U.S. has immense cultural and foreign capital which has been eroded by shitty administrations.

In military terms this means more money invested in asymetrical warfare (elite special ops), boots on the ground intelligence, and foreign policy intiatives which create exponential gains for America. The burden of day to day regional military affairs falls on the backs of sovereign nations. If europeans don't want to police their own borders or take care of their regional problems..tough titty.

Can't always cry to the U.S for help like a toddler being bullied in the sandbox if it doesn't involve U.S. interests.

The U.S. will remain a superpower with a powerful conventional army but it won't have to run everywhere waving around a stick. That's the difference.

The thing to remember about all of this is that an allied US and Russia removes a lot of these problems.

From my perspective, the only reason China is able to flex muscle in the South China Sea is because they have Russia as a deterrent, and the main reason Russia is allied with China is because it's necessary to counter the US and Europe.

A friendlier US and Russia likely removes Russia from the South China equation. Even if they don't completely turn their back on China, I don't think they'd be willing to fight WW3 so China can add a few extra islands to their territory.

China is then forced to be less aggressive, because they are surrounded by enemies on all side and will get slammed in a conflict without Russian support.

China vs. Japan, S. Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, Indonesia, and the Philippines would be a Pyrrhic victory at best. They don't have the navy, air force, or missile defense to fight that war effectively.

If the US Navy is still in the equation it would be absolutely brutal for China.

Without pushback from the US, Russia could also pick up the slack in the Middle East and keep Europe honest.

In this reimagined geopolitical landscape, the US could pick and choose their spots and wouldn't have to exert as much influence in any one area.

Just that minor shift from NATO to Russia would bring a lot of stability to the world, in my opinion.

[911]

(07-22-2016 12:09 AM)kaotic Wrote:  

Sam brings up a good point, what difference will it make.

The middle east does not understand or believes in democracy.

Iran is an interesting case study. Their democracy was overthrown by the US in the 1950s and replaced by the Shah, an authoritarian secular regime, that was itself replaced by the mullahs theocracy, with the support of the US and GB.

Point is, every middle eastern country in the 20th century has been subjected to foreign interference, most often against the interest of their people, and this coup in Turkey is no different.

[El Chinito loco]

(07-22-2016 03:18 AM)Enigma Wrote:  

The thing to remember about all of this is that an allied US and Russia removes a lot of these problems.

True to some extent. I think it would but Russia has its own agenda too. Geopolitics isn't black and white like anything else. Russia has its own interests. They definitely want pieces of territory they feel are traditionally slavic back. The question is how can the U.S. play this to OUR benefit.

Quote:

From my perspective, the only reason China is able to flex muscle in the South China Sea is because they have Russia as a deterrent, and the main reason Russia is allied with China is because it's necessary to counter the US and Europe.

This is true on a broad scale but it's more complex than that. Russia depends on China for a large portion of its commodities income. It's not just Russia having China's back just because of America. There are deep resource and strategic ties there that go beyond ideology. Russia is also deeply suspicious of the designs of central asia on the region and especially Turkey's role.

You could call Erdogan's latest stance as appeasing Russia but it's a political house built on quicksand. Erdogan is shady and Putin knows that. Erdogan has a clear agenda which involves usurping Russian authority in central asia and declaring himself as god emperor.

Quote:

A friendlier US and Russia likely removes Russia from the South China equation. Even if they don't completely turn their back on China, I don't think they'd be willing to fight WW3 so China can add a few extra islands to their territory.

No matter what happens Russia would _never_ come to bat for China in a military situation with a foreign power anyhow. China is not stupid they know this. This expectation is largely irrelevant and is projecting western values on developing world politics. This is not how these alliances work. It's largely business and resource connected but the Russian/China relationship is really not a bulwark against Nato these days.

Quote:

China vs. Japan, S. Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, Indonesia, and the Philippines would be a Pyrrhic victory at best. They don't have the navy, air force, or missile defense to fight that war effectively

From my understanding of geopolitics the most realistic alliance is Philippines, Japan, and the U.S.

Vietnam, Taiwan, S. Korea, and Indonesia have separate agendas and they would wait for the smoke to clear first. Vietnam especially is slick as fuck and have been playing both sides for some time now.

[Enigma]

(07-22-2016 08:10 AM)El Chinito loco Wrote:  

True to some extent. I think it would but Russia has its own agenda too. Geopolitics isn't black and white like anything else. Russia has its own interests. They definitely want pieces of territory they feel are traditionally slavic back. The question is how can the U.S. play this to OUR benefit.

Definitely. But the problem for the US now is that their are many places that they feel they need to be at once. With Russia there, the US will still have a presence in those regions, it just won't need to be an actual large military presence. It can be a little softer, like you said.

If the US steps back, Russia is going to step in anyway.

Quote:

This is true on a broad scale but it's more complex than that. Russia depends on China for a large portion of its commodities income. It's not just Russia having China's back just because of America. There are deep resource and strategic ties there that go beyond ideology. Russia is also deeply suspicious of the designs of central asia on the region and especially Turkey's role.

You could call Erdogan's latest stance as appeasing Russia but it's a political house built on quicksand. Erdogan is shady and Putin knows that. Erdogan has a clear agenda which involves usurping Russian authority in central asia and declaring himself as god emperor.

Yes, and Russia was forced to rely on China for trade because the rest of the world won't trade with them.

Quote:

No matter what happens Russia would _never_ come to bat for China in a military situation with a foreign power anyhow. China is not stupid they know this. This expectation is largely irrelevant and is projecting western values on developing world politics. This is not how these alliances work. It's largely business and resource connected but the Russian/China relationship is really not a bulwark against Nato these days.

I didn't say that they would, but they are still a deterrent.

It's like when that kid from down the block is trying to start a fight with you and you know his big brother is standing there. He might not jump in, but it's still something you have to account for.

Especially considering the US and Russia already have their own tensions. It's not like proxy wars in Asia between Russia and the US are anything uncommon.

Again, the US, Japan, and their Asian allies against China would be absolutely brutal for China. The US has enough naval force in the region already, plus the freedom to dock troops and ships in the Philippines, that they could project force directly onto the Chinese mainland.

Also, again, Russia relies on China as a trading partner because they've been ostracized by the other large economies around the world. But China is now going against the international community, since the resolution showed they are in the wrong in the South China Sea.

I think Russia would look to separate themselves from that if given the opportunity.

Quote:

From my understanding of geopolitics the most realistic alliance is Philippines, Japan, and the U.S.

Vietnam, Taiwan, S. Korea, and Indonesia have separate agendas and they would wait for the smoke to clear first. Vietnam especially is slick as fuck and have been playing both sides for some time now.

After the recent ruling, Indonesia and Taiwan both sent ships to the South China Sea to start harassing Chinese ships.

The whole region knows that if they let China single each country out individually, they're just going to work their way down the line pushing them all out. China has made no secret that this is what they want to do.

Taiwan and S. Korea are also both hugely reliant on the US for defense (and trade). The US has been pretty much the only one willing to risk China's wrath in working with Taiwan.

If Taiwan, S. Korea, and Vietnam didn't back the US in a major conflict with China, they know someone like Trump is going to pull out and leave them alone in the room with China/NK after the smoke clears.

This is why Trump is so big on stressing that countries need to carry their own weight. Why would we continue to protect countries that didn't join us in a war against the same people we're protecting them against?

[Jaydublin]

Bit of an update on my end.

I work with a reservist who was sent to Incirlik about a month or 2 ago. The first couple of days after the coup she was able to respond to good friends she has at work. Since Sunday they have not heard back from her.

It could be that They are only using energy for essentials.

I am beginning to believe there is a lot going on behind the scenes right now. There are probably some major negotiations taking place and they could work out and we continue doing what we are doing or they could fall through and things could get bad.

One thing I know for sure is if Trump or even GW were president right now they would be telling Erdgon to get that damn power on. I can not imagine Trump or GBush allowing our soldiers to sit there like that basically being help hostage.

[Enigma]

Apparently a pro-Islamist, pro-Erdogan paper in Turkey is claiming a US commander led the coup:



And hours later a massive fire broke out near a NATO base in Turkey:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/6927...ge-attempt

[pat2bat]

[911]

(07-25-2016 05:28 AM)pat2bat Wrote:  

Fresh details from the same crew (James Corbett/Sibel Edmonds):

[Kryptix]

(07-25-2016 10:49 AM)911 Wrote:  

(07-25-2016 05:28 AM)pat2bat Wrote:  

Fresh details from the same crew (James Corbett/Sibel Edmonds):

Big red flag in those videos is they claim a classic Ataturk slogan is NATO's https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_at_H..._the_World .

[Definer]

(07-21-2016 07:58 PM)Samseau Wrote:  

(07-21-2016 12:33 PM)TonySandos Wrote:  

(07-21-2016 11:48 AM)kaotic Wrote:  

Erdogan bans all Academics from leaving the country, heh, the purge continues.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/...46591.html

As someone that's been to the Mideast (even seen Turkey in person), people of both partisanships in the US are willfully blind to the cynical mechanics of such governments. Because Americans can't be bothered to drop the "democracy is GOAT!!1!" meme, they don't want to believe such atrocities are about to be committed under the guise of it. No one is listening. This is yet another chapter in American ignorance costing the meek peoples of other nations dearly

Yeah but what difference does it make if Turkey was a democracy or not? They'd still be doing purges and genocides anyways, it's part of the culture straight back to the Islamic and Khan days. It will never change, giving violent barbarians democracy and you just have a bunch of violent barbarians voting on stuff.

Truth to be told, Turkey is a very recent nation. It was created as a nation, state and identity just 90 years ago when ataturk gathered all the Muslims of Anatolia and declared them as turks and created their turkish identity.

Before the establishment of the nation state of Turkey it was the Ottoman empire which was nothing more and nothing less but a multi ethnic and multi cultural Islamic caliphate ruled by an Imperial dynasty and system which descended from the original khans.

Erdogan himself is georgian from his father's side and Armenian Jewish from his mother.

Typical very mixed turk that descends from any part of the ex ottoman empire.

The ottoman empire was kept alive through violence and brainwashing and this is what Erdogan is doing.

[911]

To a certain extent though, most nations are built with a mix of those two ingredients: Italy, Germany, Spain, to name some, and nearly every country in the new world. Some of the salient points in the destruction of the Ottoman Empire and the formation of modern Turkey by the Young Turks are well described in the article below.

By middle eastern/balkan standards, Turkey is fairly homogeneous, you've got mostly Turks with a Kurdish minority. Of course the Greeks and Armenians were ethnically cleansed, so yes, there was a whole lot of violence involved in that national project...



...who were these "Young Turks," who so efficiently destroyed the Ottoman empire?

The founder of the Young Turks was an Italian B'nai B'rith official named Emmanuel Carasso. Carasso set up the Young Turk secret society in the 1890s in Salonika, then part of Turkey, and now part of Greece. Carasso was also the grand master of an Italian masonic lodge there, called "Macedonia Resurrected." The lodge was the headquarters of the Young Turks, and all the top Young Turk leadership were members.

The Italian masonic lodges in the Ottoman Empire had been set up by a follower of Giuseppe Mazzini named Emmanuel Veneziano, who was also a leader of B'nai B'rith's European affiliate, the Universal Israelite Alliance.

During the Young Turk regime, Carasso continued to play a leading role. He met with the sultan, to tell him that he was overthrown. He was in charge of putting the sultan under house arrest. He ran the Young Turk intelligence network in the Balkans. And he was in charge of all food supplies in the empire during World War I.

Another important area was the press. While in power, the Young Turks ran several newspapers, including The Young Turk, whose editor was none other than the Russian Zionist leader Vladimir Jabotinsky. Jabotinsky had been educated as a young man in Italy. He later described Mazzini's ideas as the basis for the Zionist movement.

Jabotinsky arrived in Turkey shortly after the Young Turks seized power, to take over the paper. The paper was owned by a member of the Turkish cabinet, but it was funded by the Russian Zionist federation, and managed by B'nai B'rith. The editorial policy of the paper was overseen by a Dutch Zionist named Jacob Kann, who was the personal banker of the king and queen of the Netherlands.

Jabotinsky later created the most anti-Arab of all the Zionist organizations, the Irgun. His followers in Israel today are the ones most violently opposed to the Peres-Arafat peace accords.

Another associate of Carasso was Alexander Helphand, better known as Parvus, the financier of the 1905 and 1917 Russian revolutions. Shortly after 1905, Parvus moved to Turkey, where he became the economics editor of another Young Turk newspaper called The Turkish Homeland. Parvus became a business partner of Carasso in the grain trade, and an arms supplier to the Turkish army during the Balkan wars. He later returned to Europe, to arrange the secret train that took Lenin back to Russia, in 1917.


http://www.redicecreations.com/specialre...ocide.html

[rotekz]

[kaotic]

And the Purge continues, freedom of the press and journalism is dead, full on propaganda now.

[Samseau]

He's going full totalitarianism.

Let everyone understand the following.

What Erdogan is to Turkey is what Lenin was to Russia.

What Stalin was to Russia is what ISIS will be to Turkey.

[Foolsgo1d]

Controlling the media is the way to create the right psychology in your citizens to go to war. Could this asshole broadcast his intentions any more clearly?

[Glaucon]

I hope Turkey dont get their hands on the US nukes....

[Nineteen84]

   

[kaotic]

(07-28-2016 12:20 PM)Nineteen84 Wrote:  

[/url]

Power has been restored at the Air Base

[url=http://www.defense.gov/News-Article-View/Article/853102/power-restored-at-incirlik-air-base]http://www.defense.gov/News-Article-View...k-air-base

[911]

(07-27-2016 05:37 PM)Samseau Wrote:  

He's going full totalitarianism.

Let everyone understand the following.

What Erdogan is to Turkey is what Lenin was to Russia.

What Stalin was to Russia is what ISIS will be to Turkey.

Erdogan is more like a capitalist Chavez than a Lenin. He tripled his country's GDP in a decade, whereas Chavez cratered his.

From what I've gathered from fairly reliable sources, Erdogan has diverged with the Gülenists, who are very well-funded and organized islamists that have a strong presence in the US and Central Asia, and are tight with US neocons and intelligence services. He's had a rapprochement with Putin, which I think is a positive step and towards eradicating Isis and bringing back stability to the region.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/behind-the-...ft/5536494

http://truthinmedia.com/exclusive-fbi-wh...r-schools/

https://www.buzzfeed.com/rosiegray/secre...ux32rnXMo9

http://www.kurdishaspect.com/doc043011am.html

[ivansirko]

Its interesting people are calling it a failed coup. It was a successful coup by Erdogan.

[nomadbrah]

I watched a good documentary about the fall of the Ottoman empire and Armenian genocide recently. Some things I was not aware off, like when the Ottoman empire was destroyed following WW1 the Greeks were given the go ahead to invade and try to take back their historical Greek cities in modern day Turkey. Yet the European powers completely failed in not providing their support, which let Ataturk rise a rebellion (in the name of jihad) and destroy the Greeks. Another massive mistake by the winning powers of WW1.

There was a very real opportunity for Europe to push the muslims back into Asia. A very real opportunity. We laugh at the picture with Putin and Trump in Constantinoble, but that could have happened, it really could, we could have retaken Constantinoble, relocated all of the muslims in Bosnia and Albania to Anatolia, because that happened anyway, all muslims in Greece - and there were a lot - were expelled and likewise Christians in cities such as Smyrna (called Izmir today) were expelled to Greece.

Instead Americans and particularly British were more interested in Palestine and the Middle East, carving it up as they went along, so it was not because they had some problem with taking the Ottoman empire and sharing it, but they seemingly didn't care. Iraq is not a country, Jordan is not a country, Syriah is not a country, but provinces of the Ottoman empire. All the problems in the Middle East with sectarian violence comes from this.

[All or Nothing]

(07-22-2016 12:09 AM)kaotic Wrote:  

Sam brings up a good point, what difference will it make.

The middle east does not understand or believes in democracy.

I don't understand Islam very well, but my inkling is that as long as Shariah law is integrated into Islam, political Islam will always overpower democracy.

Democracy relies on the presence of secular governments that exist independent of the Church. Islam exists in direct opposition to this as it has integrated the political element into the religion itself. As I see it, the only pathway forward is to de-integrate Shariah law from Islam in order to neuter to the ideology, so that it only exists in a cultural form like Christianity. Then you can proceed to have a movement of enlightenment that proceeds to separate Church from the State completely.

Installing secular governments in Muslim territory puts the cart before the horse. It leads to unstable states as political Islam poses a direct threat to democratic functions, since they are secular in nature.

These are my musings on what is happening right now, not an expert on all this stuff.

I got some of my ideas from this article: http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-crisis-o...469223880. I would suggest reading it, since it makes some interesting points on these ideological movements happening in the Middle East. My main point of disagreement with the article comes from where the author posits that political Islam is a recent phenomenon. Whereas if you start to look at a longer timeline, it is clear that Islam has its roots in being both a religious and political movement from the very beginning (all the way back to Mohammed).

[Sosa]

Erdogan: US is “standing by the plotters”

[Dr. Howard]

Could this devolve into the fall of hitler germany?

ie. Erdogan gets so nuts that the invokes the ire of the US (Nato) and Russia jointly? The only problem is that after the fact the conquerors cannot agree on how to divide up the country and see a need to stop the other from getting a foothold.

I mean turkey has always been geographically significant. Its fall could result in cold war 2? hopefully just cold war 2 not world war 3

[911]

Erdogan has wide popular support in Turkey. Turks are very nationalistic, any foreign invasion is going to be pushed back. Think Chavez.

The US (Neocons & Soros) has already been working on a color revolution-type liberal opposition against Erdogan. He's the target of both domestic liberals (Gezi park protests) and right-wing islamist Gulenists who are propped by US Neocons (source: see my 4 links above).