[LeBeau]

(06-22-2015 12:55 AM)Samseau Wrote:  

Most likely civil war will break out similar to the Ukraine situation.

This is definitely not the "most likely" scenario if you've studied the history of Greece or modern countries who default on their debts. It's a possibility but most likely just hyperbole.

[poutsara]

(06-22-2015 04:22 PM)Samseau Wrote:  

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-22...rents-zone



Look at how fucked Greece is

The more anglo-sphere you are the more likely the parents will kick the kids to the curb.

[Samseau]

(06-22-2015 05:58 PM)poutsara Wrote:  

The ~50% of 25-34 year old Greeks living with their parents even holds true for Greeks in America. We can debate if that is bad or good, but the family ties are strong, and it is not due to financial problems - it's by choice (or tradition). The more anglo-sphere you are the more likely the parents will kick the kids to the curb. Old school Greek parents may hassle their kids on a daily basis to no end but will also stand by them to the end (and cook and clean for them too).

Sorry, I don't believe you. Got any sources for your claims? I know plenty of Greeks in America, haven't seen any who stay in their Mom's house over their own place.

http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=gr&v=25

Greek birth rates plummeting like a rock indicates that they are staying in their parents house because they have no where else to go. Low birth rates, kids staying in Mom's house are all from the same cause = shit economy.

[Samseau]

(06-22-2015 05:46 PM)LeBeau Wrote:  

(06-22-2015 12:55 AM)Samseau Wrote:  

Most likely civil war will break out similar to the Ukraine situation.

This is definitely not the "most likely" scenario if you've studied the history of Greece or modern countries who default on their debts. It's a possibility but most likely just hyperbole.

I have studied the history of defaults and the only time they haven't resulted in a Civil War was when the USA bailed out the country.

For example, when the USSR broke down you had tanks firing on Moscow's legislature. No civil war, huh?

As for the Greeks, they are one of the most civil war prone people in the history of mankind. I think you should take your own advice on studying history, no offense.

[Noir]

(06-23-2015 03:47 AM)Samseau Wrote:  

(06-22-2015 05:58 PM)poutsara Wrote:  

The ~50% of 25-34 year old Greeks living with their parents even holds true for Greeks in America. We can debate if that is bad or good, but the family ties are strong, and it is not due to financial problems - it's by choice (or tradition). The more anglo-sphere you are the more likely the parents will kick the kids to the curb. Old school Greek parents may hassle their kids on a daily basis to no end but will also stand by them to the end (and cook and clean for them too).

Sorry, I don't believe you. Got any sources for your claims? I know plenty of Greeks in America, haven't seen any who stay in their Mom's house over their own place.

http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=gr&v=25

Greek birth rates plummeting like a rock indicates that they are staying in their parents house because they have no where else to go. Low birth rates, kids staying in Mom's house are all from the same cause = shit economy.

I am Greek and it is true. From before the crisis to after, the 'living with parents' percentage was always and will remain high.

In some places, the parents start building floors above their houses for their children and spouses to move in.

It's purely cultural and more of a 'in spite' of rather than a 'due to' kind of thing.

We have a word for these people, 'mammothreftoi' (rough translation: mother-bred)

[Samseau]

(06-23-2015 07:48 AM)Noir Wrote:  

(06-23-2015 03:47 AM)Samseau Wrote:  

(06-22-2015 05:58 PM)poutsara Wrote:  

The ~50% of 25-34 year old Greeks living with their parents even holds true for Greeks in America. We can debate if that is bad or good, but the family ties are strong, and it is not due to financial problems - it's by choice (or tradition). The more anglo-sphere you are the more likely the parents will kick the kids to the curb. Old school Greek parents may hassle their kids on a daily basis to no end but will also stand by them to the end (and cook and clean for them too).

Sorry, I don't believe you. Got any sources for your claims? I know plenty of Greeks in America, haven't seen any who stay in their Mom's house over their own place.

http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=gr&v=25

Greek birth rates plummeting like a rock indicates that they are staying in their parents house because they have no where else to go. Low birth rates, kids staying in Mom's house are all from the same cause = shit economy.

I am Greek and it is true. From before the crisis to after, the 'living with parents' percentage was always and will remain high.

In some places, the parents start building floors above their houses for their children and spouses to move in.

It's purely cultural and more of a 'in spite' of rather than a 'due to' kind of thing.

We have a word for these people, 'mammothreftoi' (rough translation: mother-bred)

If the birth rates were high or normal and people continued to live with their families then people would be right this is the only cause, otherwise the available evidence indicates for every mother-bred family there is also a man stuck at home with no job.

Another data point - are Italian's mother-bred as well? Or the Portuguese? Or Bulgaria? Romania? The numbers are huge all across southern Europe and you guys are trying to put the cause on a single cultural factor? Makes no sense.

[DjembaDjemba]

^^Actually culture is absolutely the biggest cause of stay at home adults.

[N°6]

Iceland was in the same dire straits but it jailed the bankers. Now it is going relatively well.

There must be something in swotting the mosquito before it sucks out too much blood.

[Samseau]

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/3...5cf54dcba4

Okay, right from Eurostat 2008 (the last time research was conducted on these matters) we have some professional opinions:

"In a Eurobarometer survey published in 2001[1], material difficulties were mentioned as the main obstacle facing young people in gaining their independence. These material difficulties reflect differences in the housing market, the labour market, or the conditions under which the young people study.

Going away to study or to work are obviously key factors in leaving home for this age group. Due to the limited number of cities with universities or vocational schools, young people from rural areas or mid-sized cities often need to move to urban areas not just to continue their education, but also to look for better job opportunities.

Another explanation as to why some leave and some not may be due to the fact that some countries offer better opportunities than others to young adults seeking affordable accommodation, through subsidies to cover rent or education expenses.

Other factors explaining differences among countries may be found in cultural aspects such as the relative importance given to the nuclear family, or different lifestyle arrangements enabling children to be more independent. These are, however, by definition difficult to assess.

[1] Eurobarometer 151, 2001: 67% of young adults aged 15-24 quoted material difficulties as the main reason not to leave their family home. Such difficulties were the main reason in all countries except Luxembourg and the Netherlands."

So, directly according to 2001 Eurostat's professional survey team the #1 cause of people staying at home is due to material causes - i.e. no jobs and money - in all countries except Luxembourg and the Netherlands.

The explanation of cultural differences is listed on the bottom of possible causes and cannot be reliably measured, and cultural reasons did not come up as the #1 reason when the youth were surveyed. And this was in 2001! Things have only deteriorated heavily since then.

Thus, the fact so many young Greeks are stuck at home is because of a terrible economy like I surmised earlier in this thread.

PS -

Rumors are circulating Greece is getting ready for another bailout with another round of taxes on citizens to pay for it! Oh boy this sounds like a great idea!

[Sonsowey]

Samseau the idea that Greece defaulting would just be allowed to descend into a free-for-all like, say, Syria or Iraq just doesn't seem reasonable. It's a small enough country that it makes a ton of sense for Europe and the U.S. to just continue funding it to keep a power structure in place to avoid that.

Of course, one might have said the same about Ukraine. Yet being an EU member, and not being a huge country where violence can be localized far, far away makes it seem a bit different.

[Wadsworth]

(06-23-2015 01:19 PM)N°6 Wrote:  

Iceland was in the same dire straits but it jailed the bankers. Now it is going relatively well.

There must be something in swotting the mosquito before it sucks out too much blood.

It's not always clear who the host is and who the parasite is.

[Samseau]

(06-23-2015 05:49 PM)Sonsowey Wrote:  

Samseau the idea that Greece defaulting would just be allowed to descend into a free-for-all like, say, Syria or Iraq just doesn't seem reasonable. It's a small enough country that it makes a ton of sense for Europe and the U.S. to just continue funding it to keep a power structure in place to avoid that.

Of course, one might have said the same about Ukraine. Yet being an EU member, and not being a huge country where violence can be localized far, far away makes it seem a bit different.

But every bailout has to be bigger than the last to cover the old debts. Also included in these bailouts is usually a 'restructuring' of Greece's debt, such as what happened in 2012 when Greece was forgiven 50% of their debt. The Euro went from 1.5 USD to 1.25 USD overnight.

Right now the Euro has dropped again due to Greece: http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=USD

So in reality, the EU knows it's throwing away it's money to prop up Greece, but they do so because:

1. They don't want other members to bail on the EU.

2. They enjoy having a weaker Euro so they can make more competitive exports.


The problem? This just encourages other indebted EU states to keep ramping up their debt because they know the EU will just bail them out if necessary. At what point will the bailouts become more expensive than dissolution? The day will come, it is mathematically certain. And the longer they put this day off, the worse the crash will be.

[N°6]

(06-23-2015 05:57 PM)Wadsworth Wrote:  

(06-23-2015 01:19 PM)N°6 Wrote:  

Iceland was in the same dire straits but it jailed the bankers. Now it is going relatively well.

There must be something in swotting the mosquito before it sucks out too much blood.

It's not always clear who the host is and who the parasite is.

In this ancient struggle between the usurer and the labourer, nearly every philosophy and religion knew who the parasite was in this symbiotic relationship.

Quote:

The Hebrew word for "usury" is "neshek," meaning literally "a bite," from its painfulness to the debtor; while in Lev. xxv. 36, 37 "increase" is the rendering of the Hebrew "marbit" or "tarbit" which denotes the gain on the creditor's side, and which in the later Hebrew becomes "ribbit." Lending on usury or increase is classed by Ezekiel (xviii. 13, 17) among the worst of sins. See also Ps. xv., in which among the attributes of the righteous man is reckoned the fact that he does not lend on usury.

http://www.jewishencyclopedia.com/articles/14615-usury

There you go; first the bite, then the pain, then the flow of energy to the creditor. It is clear to me who the parasite is.

[Noir]

(06-23-2015 05:31 PM)Samseau Wrote:  

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/3...5cf54dcba4

Okay, right from Eurostat 2008 (the last time research was conducted on these matters) we have some professional opinions:

"In a Eurobarometer survey published in 2001[1], material difficulties were mentioned as the main obstacle facing young people in gaining their independence. These material difficulties reflect differences in the housing market, the labour market, or the conditions under which the young people study.

Going away to study or to work are obviously key factors in leaving home for this age group. Due to the limited number of cities with universities or vocational schools, young people from rural areas or mid-sized cities often need to move to urban areas not just to continue their education, but also to look for better job opportunities.

Another explanation as to why some leave and some not may be due to the fact that some countries offer better opportunities than others to young adults seeking affordable accommodation, through subsidies to cover rent or education expenses.

Other factors explaining differences among countries may be found in cultural aspects such as the relative importance given to the nuclear family, or different lifestyle arrangements enabling children to be more independent. These are, however, by definition difficult to assess.

[1] Eurobarometer 151, 2001: 67% of young adults aged 15-24 quoted material difficulties as the main reason not to leave their family home. Such difficulties were the main reason in all countries except Luxembourg and the Netherlands."

So, directly according to 2001 Eurostat's professional survey team the #1 cause of people staying at home is due to material causes - i.e. no jobs and money - in all countries except Luxembourg and the Netherlands.

The explanation of cultural differences is listed on the bottom of possible causes and cannot be reliably measured, and cultural reasons did not come up as the #1 reason when the youth were surveyed. And this was in 2001! Things have only deteriorated heavily since then.

Thus, the fact so many young Greeks are stuck at home is because of a terrible economy like I surmised earlier in this thread.

PS -

Rumors are circulating Greece is getting ready for another bailout with another round of taxes on citizens to pay for it! Oh boy this sounds like a great idea!

Sure, I understand that you want numbers/facts/data to support your claim and I completely respect that.

Understand that these are not mutually exclusive; from a statistical point of view, culture is the independent variable throughout time and financial situation the dependent. In 10 years, perhaps, the variables will switch roles.

My opinion is more of a fact and my claim is supported by (also minor reasons):

a) My understanding of the culture as it is my culture; I am Greek and these are things we discuss between us it is intertwined in to our culture.

My aunt married an Italian and we are having dinner, discussing how our family values are different to most Northern European states, we are very inclusive. To put it in my uncle's Sicilian terms, 'we take care of our own'.

In my family, this created a lot of tension between the Mediterranean men and their foreign women, in some cases wives.

Young people are encouraged to stay with their parents and eventually take care of them. The wives/daughter-in-laws are taught how to be housewives by the head mother etc.


b) My experience, having lived in Cyprus for 14 years, 1996 - 2010.

My first neighbourhood was populated with these kind of people, building for their children. My teachers, some straight out of university lived with their parents despite making a good income at a private school. We are all familiar with each other's parents and there is lots of respect, Aunty/Uncle/Mr/Mrs, no matter how familiar you are.

We go to army at 18 - 20, so we stay with our parents. We go for further education (check out the higher education % rates -another reason of debt-) and stay with out parents afterwards. This delay means we have older graduates and as a result, will stay longer with parents.

In Greece, the army is at 26, this also plays a role as some men delay their moving out until this is completed.


c) My age group, I am 24 and the demographic you speak of is my demographic.

Taking my childhood friends; 2/8 live with parents, of which all are from middle class families. 5 live in the UK, 2 in Cyprus, 1 in South Africa, all 'plying their trade'.

Out of the 2, 1 is going back for financial/employment reasons and the other is a bit of a mothered individual who indeed, is saving money. His brother is 28 and lives with his parents despite a stable job because he is single and his mother takes care of all the housewife responsibilities.

Given the economy, us 6 (outside of the island) are not going back unless we intend on starting a family as we could save more money hustling overseas than living with our parents.

The ones who are affected are staying in Cyprus due to geographical or linguistic/cultural immobility of labour.

They live with their parents, not purely for financial reasons however but for some unexplained reason, Greek parents consider it blasphemy for their children to live outside of home unless they are married.

This also comes down to the fact that lot of Greeks are not as independent as they may portray.

Mothers want to feed sons, fathers want to shoot the shit with their sons.

Mothers want to train daughters, fathers want to protect their daughters.


I apologize for my apathy towards looking for peer-reviewed papers or statistics to support my claim. I consider my sample size and experience range large enough for these conclusions and as a social scientist, I get if you disregard it.

I'll never forget moving in to university dorms and there was a 24 year old (I was 20) student whose mother stayed on the floor of his single room for a whole week, making sure her son was coping.

My mom came to see everything, sorted me out and stayed in a hotel for 2 days and then went on her own holiday with her friends.

I could give countless examples; maybe some other Hellenic members can chime in.

Of course, I am half Cypriot but having grown up there and having done part of the army, I consider myself more Cypriot than anything else.

[Wreckingball]

(06-23-2015 09:46 AM)Samseau Wrote:  

(06-23-2015 07:48 AM)Noir Wrote:  

(06-23-2015 03:47 AM)Samseau Wrote:  

(06-22-2015 05:58 PM)poutsara Wrote:  

The ~50% of 25-34 year old Greeks living with their parents even holds true for Greeks in America. We can debate if that is bad or good, but the family ties are strong, and it is not due to financial problems - it's by choice (or tradition). The more anglo-sphere you are the more likely the parents will kick the kids to the curb. Old school Greek parents may hassle their kids on a daily basis to no end but will also stand by them to the end (and cook and clean for them too).

Sorry, I don't believe you. Got any sources for your claims? I know plenty of Greeks in America, haven't seen any who stay in their Mom's house over their own place.

http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=gr&v=25

Greek birth rates plummeting like a rock indicates that they are staying in their parents house because they have no where else to go. Low birth rates, kids staying in Mom's house are all from the same cause = shit economy.

I am Greek and it is true. From before the crisis to after, the 'living with parents' percentage was always and will remain high.

In some places, the parents start building floors above their houses for their children and spouses to move in.

It's purely cultural and more of a 'in spite' of rather than a 'due to' kind of thing.

We have a word for these people, 'mammothreftoi' (rough translation: mother-bred)

If the birth rates were high or normal and people continued to live with their families then people would be right this is the only cause, otherwise the available evidence indicates for every mother-bred family there is also a man stuck at home with no job.

Another data point - are Italian's mother-bred as well? Or the Portuguese? Or Bulgaria? Romania? The numbers are huge all across southern Europe and you guys are trying to put the cause on a single cultural factor? Makes no sense.

Speaking of Portugal: Yes. But it is also a mix of culture and shit economy.

[Samseau]

(06-24-2015 03:55 AM)Noir Wrote:  

(06-23-2015 05:31 PM)Samseau Wrote:  

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/3...5cf54dcba4

Okay, right from Eurostat 2008 (the last time research was conducted on these matters) we have some professional opinions:

"In a Eurobarometer survey published in 2001[1], material difficulties were mentioned as the main obstacle facing young people in gaining their independence. These material difficulties reflect differences in the housing market, the labour market, or the conditions under which the young people study.

Going away to study or to work are obviously key factors in leaving home for this age group. Due to the limited number of cities with universities or vocational schools, young people from rural areas or mid-sized cities often need to move to urban areas not just to continue their education, but also to look for better job opportunities.

Another explanation as to why some leave and some not may be due to the fact that some countries offer better opportunities than others to young adults seeking affordable accommodation, through subsidies to cover rent or education expenses.

Other factors explaining differences among countries may be found in cultural aspects such as the relative importance given to the nuclear family, or different lifestyle arrangements enabling children to be more independent. These are, however, by definition difficult to assess.

[1] Eurobarometer 151, 2001: 67% of young adults aged 15-24 quoted material difficulties as the main reason not to leave their family home. Such difficulties were the main reason in all countries except Luxembourg and the Netherlands."

So, directly according to 2001 Eurostat's professional survey team the #1 cause of people staying at home is due to material causes - i.e. no jobs and money - in all countries except Luxembourg and the Netherlands.

The explanation of cultural differences is listed on the bottom of possible causes and cannot be reliably measured, and cultural reasons did not come up as the #1 reason when the youth were surveyed. And this was in 2001! Things have only deteriorated heavily since then.

Thus, the fact so many young Greeks are stuck at home is because of a terrible economy like I surmised earlier in this thread.

PS -

Rumors are circulating Greece is getting ready for another bailout with another round of taxes on citizens to pay for it! Oh boy this sounds like a great idea!

Sure, I understand that you want numbers/facts/data to support your claim and I completely respect that.

Understand that these are not mutually exclusive; from a statistical point of view, culture is the independent variable throughout time and financial situation the dependent. In 10 years, perhaps, the variables will switch roles.

My opinion is more of a fact and my claim is supported by (also minor reasons):

a) My understanding of the culture as it is my culture; I am Greek and these are things we discuss between us it is intertwined in to our culture.

My aunt married an Italian and we are having dinner, discussing how our family values are different to most Northern European states, we are very inclusive. To put it in my uncle's Sicilian terms, 'we take care of our own'.

In my family, this created a lot of tension between the Mediterranean men and their foreign women, in some cases wives.

Young people are encouraged to stay with their parents and eventually take care of them. The wives/daughter-in-laws are taught how to be housewives by the head mother etc.


b) My experience, having lived in Cyprus for 14 years, 1996 - 2010.

My first neighbourhood was populated with these kind of people, building for their children. My teachers, some straight out of university lived with their parents despite making a good income at a private school. We are all familiar with each other's parents and there is lots of respect, Aunty/Uncle/Mr/Mrs, no matter how familiar you are.

We go to army at 18 - 20, so we stay with our parents. We go for further education (check out the higher education % rates -another reason of debt-) and stay with out parents afterwards. This delay means we have older graduates and as a result, will stay longer with parents.

In Greece, the army is at 26, this also plays a role as some men delay their moving out until this is completed.


c) My age group, I am 24 and the demographic you speak of is my demographic.

Taking my childhood friends; 2/8 live with parents, of which all are from middle class families. 5 live in the UK, 2 in Cyprus, 1 in South Africa, all 'plying their trade'.

Out of the 2, 1 is going back for financial/employment reasons and the other is a bit of a mothered individual who indeed, is saving money. His brother is 28 and lives with his parents despite a stable job because he is single and his mother takes care of all the housewife responsibilities.

Given the economy, us 6 (outside of the island) are not going back unless we intend on starting a family as we could save more money hustling overseas than living with our parents.

The ones who are affected are staying in Cyprus due to geographical or linguistic/cultural immobility of labour.

They live with their parents, not purely for financial reasons however but for some unexplained reason, Greek parents consider it blasphemy for their children to live outside of home unless they are married.

This also comes down to the fact that lot of Greeks are not as independent as they may portray.

Mothers want to feed sons, fathers want to shoot the shit with their sons.

Mothers want to train daughters, fathers want to protect their daughters.


I apologize for my apathy towards looking for peer-reviewed papers or statistics to support my claim. I consider my sample size and experience range large enough for these conclusions and as a social scientist, I get if you disregard it.

I'll never forget moving in to university dorms and there was a 24 year old (I was 20) student whose mother stayed on the floor of his single room for a whole week, making sure her son was coping.

My mom came to see everything, sorted me out and stayed in a hotel for 2 days and then went on her own holiday with her friends.

I could give countless examples; maybe some other Hellenic members can chime in.

Of course, I am half Cypriot but having grown up there and having done part of the army, I consider myself more Cypriot than anything else.

Yeah but desiring to be with one's family is not the same thing as living together. If the economic situation was better, I guarantee you'd see people living in houses apart from their parents but just in close proximity. They'd buy a house next door, or they'd buy duplexes, etc. People would also spread out from city centers. But because they cannot afford to do so due to a rigged housing market, they are stuck sharing the same space to be with their parents.

So that cultural explanation still doesn't cut it.

[el mechanico]

Samseau three Greek guys here just agreed and explained this why don't you get it?

[Samseau]

(06-24-2015 12:58 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  

Samseau three Greek guys here just agreed and explained this why don't you get it?

I'm not disagreeing with their analysis of the culture, just their analysis of the outcome. Just because people like to live close together does not mean they want to live down the hall from one another.

[Sonsowey]

(06-23-2015 07:18 PM)Samseau Wrote:  

(06-23-2015 05:49 PM)Sonsowey Wrote:  

Samseau the idea that Greece defaulting would just be allowed to descend into a free-for-all like, say, Syria or Iraq just doesn't seem reasonable. It's a small enough country that it makes a ton of sense for Europe and the U.S. to just continue funding it to keep a power structure in place to avoid that.

Of course, one might have said the same about Ukraine. Yet being an EU member, and not being a huge country where violence can be localized far, far away makes it seem a bit different.

But every bailout has to be bigger than the last to cover the old debts. Also included in these bailouts is usually a 'restructuring' of Greece's debt, such as what happened in 2012 when Greece was forgiven 50% of their debt. The Euro went from 1.5 USD to 1.25 USD overnight.

Right now the Euro has dropped again due to Greece: http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=USD

So in reality, the EU knows it's throwing away it's money to prop up Greece, but they do so because:

1. They don't want other members to bail on the EU.

2. They enjoy having a weaker Euro so they can make more competitive exports.


The problem? This just encourages other indebted EU states to keep ramping up their debt because they know the EU will just bail them out if necessary. At what point will the bailouts become more expensive than dissolution? The day will come, it is mathematically certain. And the longer they put this day off, the worse the crash will be.

Sure but your idea that they will let Greece descend into a state where there is a true power-vacuum is just not what I imagine.

It seems like between the U.S./NATO military, and the funds of the combined EU and the US along with the IMF, there is no reason not to keep bailing out Greece and take financial stewardship of it and, in the worst case scenario, install a government like was done to Italy.

A civil war happens when there is a legitimate challenge to state power, and really Greece's "state power" is a combination of the U.S. and E.U. I cannot see any combination of socialists/fascists/whoever rising up and militarily challenging the U.S./EU/NATO in that way.

I could be wrong of course, but I would bet that Greece is kept within the fold, whatever the cost, and does not descend into civil war.

[el mechanico]

(06-24-2015 03:02 PM)Samseau Wrote:  

(06-24-2015 12:58 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  

Samseau three Greek guys here just agreed and explained this why don't you get it?

I'm not disagreeing with their analysis of the culture, just their analysis of the outcome. Just because people like to live close together does not mean they want to live down the hall from one another.

If your parents do everything for you and you hang out with them all the time why would you move out?

[Foolsgo1d]

Pretty sure Med and latino culture is heavily family orientated and them living together for extended periods is not out of the oridinary. That map is also severely out of date when it comes to the UK and young people trying to get on the property market.

And as for Greece, they owe more than 380 billion Euros. There is no way those people are going to pay it back and I seriously doubt the next two generations will want that burden either. This kind of debt just never goes away, ask someone with their own massive debt.

[eradicator]

(06-24-2015 03:23 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  

(06-24-2015 03:02 PM)Samseau Wrote:  

(06-24-2015 12:58 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  

Samseau three Greek guys here just agreed and explained this why don't you get it?

I'm not disagreeing with their analysis of the culture, just their analysis of the outcome. Just because people like to live close together does not mean they want to live down the hall from one another.

If your parents do everything for you and you hang out with them all the time why would you move out?

It sure as hell would make pulling a chick easier if I am going back to my apartment instead of to my parent's basement.

[Lord Tito]

(06-24-2015 03:06 PM)Sonsowey Wrote:  

(06-23-2015 07:18 PM)Samseau Wrote:  

(06-23-2015 05:49 PM)Sonsowey Wrote:  

Samseau the idea that Greece defaulting would just be allowed to descend into a free-for-all like, say, Syria or Iraq just doesn't seem reasonable. It's a small enough country that it makes a ton of sense for Europe and the U.S. to just continue funding it to keep a power structure in place to avoid that.

Of course, one might have said the same about Ukraine. Yet being an EU member, and not being a huge country where violence can be localized far, far away makes it seem a bit different.

But every bailout has to be bigger than the last to cover the old debts. Also included in these bailouts is usually a 'restructuring' of Greece's debt, such as what happened in 2012 when Greece was forgiven 50% of their debt. The Euro went from 1.5 USD to 1.25 USD overnight.

Right now the Euro has dropped again due to Greece: http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=USD

So in reality, the EU knows it's throwing away it's money to prop up Greece, but they do so because:

1. They don't want other members to bail on the EU.

2. They enjoy having a weaker Euro so they can make more competitive exports.


The problem? This just encourages other indebted EU states to keep ramping up their debt because they know the EU will just bail them out if necessary. At what point will the bailouts become more expensive than dissolution? The day will come, it is mathematically certain. And the longer they put this day off, the worse the crash will be.

Sure but your idea that they will let Greece descend into a state where there is a true power-vacuum is just not what I imagine.

It seems like between the U.S./NATO military, and the funds of the combined EU and the US along with the IMF, there is no reason not to keep bailing out Greece and take financial stewardship of it and, in the worst case scenario, install a government like was done to Italy.

A civil war happens when there is a legitimate challenge to state power, and really Greece's "state power" is a combination of the U.S. and E.U. I cannot see any combination of socialists/fascists/whoever rising up and militarily challenging the U.S./EU/NATO in that way.

I could be wrong of course, but I would bet that Greece is kept within the fold, whatever the cost, and does not descend into civil war.

Greece being a NATO and EU country will simply not be allowed to implode. Even though Greece has a violent history given invasions, civil wars and periods of military rule, it will simply not happen this time due to a variety of factors.

For a start, Greece is in NATO and NATO will do what it can to keep it inside the tent.

Second, the armed forces long a source of involvement in Greece will not intervene this time round. The Army was discredited after the Cyprus fiasco of 1974 and forever blamed for the loss of Cyprus and its inaction in preventing the Turkish invasion and subsequent occupation.

Lastly, the EU will not allow a Grexit, an event which could trigger a domino affect throughout the Eurozone in particular in countries like Portugal, Spain and Italy, three countries heavily exposed to debt. Ireland also has a colossal debt and its growth right now is in part due to an artificial property bubble (mainly in Dublin area) and money coming in from the ECB which is being used to prop up zombie banks.

Getting back to the wider picture, the simple fact of the matter is that the current situation is untenable. Piling more debt on existing debt will not make the problem go away but in fact make it a lot worse. There is only so much road you can kick that can down before it runs out and when it does, the crash will be nothing like what we have seen before.

In short, Greece is fucked if it continues on its present course. Of course they reach a deal with its creditors but its death by a thousand cuts as more money is being haemoraged out of the economy and its people reduced to neo-feudal penury. The KKE (Greek Communist Party) has offered the most sanest option, i.e. default, reintroduce the drachma and carry out a root and branch reform of the economy, government and taxation system. Many Greeks are living in cloud cuckoo land. They still want to be in the eurozone yet want none of the strings attached (austerity) that goes with it. The frugal German taxpayers will simply not tolerate that.

It seems the Greeks want their cake and eat it. Well they can't.

[Samseau]

(06-24-2015 03:23 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  

(06-24-2015 03:02 PM)Samseau Wrote:  

(06-24-2015 12:58 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  

Samseau three Greek guys here just agreed and explained this why don't you get it?

I'm not disagreeing with their analysis of the culture, just their analysis of the outcome. Just because people like to live close together does not mean they want to live down the hall from one another.

If your parents do everything for you and you hang out with them all the time why would you move out?

To start your own family.

Remember, look at the age range of the survey: 25-34. That's not a very young age range if you ask me. I think most human beings, regardless of culture, are going to want to have a family by the time they are hitting 30. The idea that 34 year-olds are included in a survey data where over 50% still live with their parents shows something is terribly wrong with the economy. The number should be closer to 35% for the age range of up to 34. Also we know shit is fucked if you look at the birthrates of these cultures, all are negative.

[Kamaki4]

I get it, it's hard for some people to grasp the concept of living with your parents even if there isn't an economic need to do it. The last time I lived in Greece, 7 years ago, it was actually frustrating dating Greek girls. I would rarely meet one who didn't live at home, and this was before the crisis. A high percentage of Greek kids lived with their parents before the economic crisis, during the economic crisis and as illogical as it may seem, would continue to live at home even if unemployment shrank to near zero and wages rose to levels on par with Germany.