[marksoc]

I am from Argentina and I know a little thing or two about economics.

NO, the Argie economy will NOT crash, since we do not follow neocon policies anymore.

The current system is called "administrated devaluation". This means that devaluation of the peso follows inflation, which is caused by the oligopolistic structure of production and its response to increasing demand (and not due to money printing, like the ignoramus often spew).

So, expect to be it somewhat cheaper than last year, but no crash. Sorry dudes.

[conservative]

(02-01-2014 06:40 PM)marksoc Wrote:  

I am from Argentina and I know a little thing or two about economics.

NO, the Argie economy will NOT crash, since we do not follow neocon policies anymore.

The current system is called "administrated devaluation". This means that devaluation of the peso follows inflation, which is caused by the oligopolistic structure of production and its response to increasing demand (and not due to money printing, like the ignoramus often spew).

So, expect to be it somewhat cheaper than last year, but no crash. Sorry dudes.

Are you serious?

(02-01-2014 06:40 PM)marksoc Wrote:  

I am from Argentina and I know a little thing or two about economics.

Should have read that part twice before reading to the end of your economical analysis.

[conservative]

guys, if you are thinking about real estate, then you should invest when prices are all the way down and the chaos/unrest is in peek. That being said, an apartment which is sold at $200K, should be traded at $30K-$40K.

After 10 years, you should be able to make around 10 times your invested capital. The risks

1. gov. takes your property if you are not a national.
2. high taxes for foreign investors
3. the situation doesn't fix in 10 years (very improbable in *my* opinion)
4. you can't sell for some reasons/laws (but probably you can rent)
5. you can sell but you can't transfer your money abroad

If you are looking for high-yield investments, you have to take risks. In my opinion, the risk is *very* low. This is, certainly, my opinion. Things have got MUCH MUCH worse here than in BA or any other place for that matter. And they got a lot worse in neighboring countries, but guess what: The likelihood of a war is close to 0% and the unrest won't probably damage your real estate property. 10 years later and you are golden.

[Tex Pro]

Argentina’s coming collapse:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a...story.html

Peso panic and rocketing prices shake the throne of Argentina's Queen Cristina:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/fe...n-cristina

The party is over:

http://www.economist.com/news/americas/2...party-over

[Mekorig]

(02-01-2014 06:40 PM)marksoc Wrote:  

I am from Argentina and I know a little thing or two about economics.

NO, the Argie economy will NOT crash, since we do not follow neocon policies anymore.

The current system is called "administrated devaluation". This means that devaluation of the peso follows inflation, which is caused by the oligopolistic structure of production and its response to increasing demand (and not due to money printing, like the ignoramus often spew).

So, expect to be it somewhat cheaper than last year, but no crash. Sorry dudes.

And that is what they teached you in the last meeting with the boys of La Campora?

[username]

(02-01-2014 07:05 PM)conservative Wrote:  

guys, if you are thinking about real estate, then you should invest when prices are all the way down and the chaos/unrest is in peek. That being said, an apartment which is sold at $200K, should be traded at $30K-$40K.

After 10 years, you should be able to make around 10 times your invested capital. The risks

1. gov. takes your property if you are not a national.
2. high taxes for foreign investors
3. the situation doesn't fix in 10 years (very improbable in *my* opinion)
4. you can't sell for some reasons/laws (but probably you can rent)
5. you can sell but you can't transfer your money abroad

If you are looking for high-yield investments, you have to take risks. In my opinion, the risk is *very* low. This is, certainly, my opinion. Things have got MUCH MUCH worse here than in BA or any other place for that matter. And they got a lot worse in neighboring countries, but guess what: The likelihood of a war is close to 0% and the unrest won't probably damage your real estate property. 10 years later and you are golden.

$30k to $40k would be awesome and I would strongly consider buying one although I don't see it going that low. Actually it wouldn't even matter if it didn't increased in value, it would still be a great asset to have. Could even rent rooms on AirBnB and be making money with it.

60% occupancy rate for 3 years x $50 a night = $32,850 ((365*.6)*3*50)

After Kirchner gets out of office the next president will be forced to correct her mistakes. Things will be good until the next Kirchner/Chavez imitator gets in there and does more of the same failed policies while blaming corporations and foreigners for problems actually caused by their own government. When it looks like the next president will be one of those, you have 2 to 3 years to sell your property before their "new policies" (aka same mistakes made by Kirchner before) start to take effect.

[conservative]

(02-02-2014 06:09 AM)username Wrote:  

(02-01-2014 07:05 PM)conservative Wrote:  

guys, if you are thinking about real estate, then you should invest when prices are all the way down and the chaos/unrest is in peek. That being said, an apartment which is sold at $200K, should be traded at $30K-$40K.

After 10 years, you should be able to make around 10 times your invested capital. The risks

1. gov. takes your property if you are not a national.
2. high taxes for foreign investors
3. the situation doesn't fix in 10 years (very improbable in *my* opinion)
4. you can't sell for some reasons/laws (but probably you can rent)
5. you can sell but you can't transfer your money abroad

If you are looking for high-yield investments, you have to take risks. In my opinion, the risk is *very* low. This is, certainly, my opinion. Things have got MUCH MUCH worse here than in BA or any other place for that matter. And they got a lot worse in neighboring countries, but guess what: The likelihood of a war is close to 0% and the unrest won't probably damage your real estate property. 10 years later and you are golden.

$30k to $40k would be awesome and I would strongly consider buying one although I don't see it going that low. Actually it wouldn't even matter if it didn't increased in value, it would still be a great asset to have. Could even rent rooms on AirBnB and be making money with it.

60% occupancy rate for 3 years x $50 a night = $32,850 ((365*.6)*3*50)

After Kirchner gets out of office the next president will be forced to correct her mistakes. Things will be good until the next Kirchner/Chavez imitator gets in there and does more of the same failed policies while blaming corporations and foreigners for problems actually caused by their own government. When it looks like the next president will be one of those, you have 2 to 3 years to sell your property before their "new policies" (aka same mistakes made by Kirchner before) start to take effect.

Assets could be that low on the country currency especially if they try to tighten the control. The biggest challenge will be getting the money inside, and doing the deal in foreign currency (which is probably restricted).

On a hyerinflation, the interest rates goes very high and thus long term loans becomes impossible. The demand on real estate will drop like crazy, add to that people focusing on primary/vital expenses...

Certainly, you have to invest when chaos is at the TOP, because that's when everybody else is afraid to invest.

No risk. No returns.

[Tail Gunner]

(02-02-2014 09:37 AM)conservative Wrote:  

On a hyerinflation, the interest rates goes very high and thus long term loans becomes impossible. The demand on real estate will drop like crazy, add to that people focusing on primary/vital expenses...

Do Argentine banks even offer mortgages to locals for real estate transactions (as a general rule)? In many Latin American countries, real estate transactions are almost always cash-based.

My point is not that you will be unable to get a loan (because, as a foreigner, you would not be able to do that during even good economic times). My point is that the reason for a huge decline in property values may have nothing to do with the unavailability of loans to locals, but simply the panic to obtain any type of hard currency to satisfy basic survival needs (real or perceived).

Then again, perhaps unlike many Latin American countries, Argentine banks typically offer mortgage loans to locals (as a general rule). Perhaps a local could chime in. I did a quick Google search, but nothing jumped out.

[portofmanteau]

Most of your questions are covered here:
http://www.rooshvforum.network/thread-32400-...#pid636745

(02-01-2014 06:40 PM)marksoc Wrote:  

NO, the Argie economy will NOT crash, since we do not follow neocon policies anymore.

The current system is called "administrated devaluation". This means that devaluation of the peso follows inflation, which is caused by the oligopolistic structure of production and its response to increasing demand (and not due to money printing, like the ignoramus often spew).

RVF resident Kirchnerist!

[portofmanteau]

(02-01-2014 07:05 PM)conservative Wrote:  

guys, if you are thinking about real estate, then you should invest when prices are all the way down and the chaos/unrest is in peek. That being said, an apartment which is sold at $200K, should be traded at $30K-$40K.

When people are rioting in the streets, all banks are shut down, and martial law is implemented is when you should invest? Is that when you're going to stroll around with a briefcase full of $40K cash?

(02-01-2014 07:05 PM)conservative Wrote:  

After 10 years, you should be able to make around 10 times your invested capital.

In 10 years, there will be another crash, so you should be able to sell for the same 40K you bought your property for, and hope you don't get robbed on the way out of the closing by thieves contracted by the buyer or the transfer agent.

[Tail Gunner]

(02-02-2014 02:50 PM)portofmanteau Wrote:  

(02-01-2014 07:05 PM)conservative Wrote:  

guys, if you are thinking about real estate, then you should invest when prices are all the way down and the chaos/unrest is in peek. That being said, an apartment which is sold at $200K, should be traded at $30K-$40K.

When people are rioting in the streets, all banks are shut down, and martial law is implemented is when you should invest? Is that when you're going to stroll around with a briefcase full of $40K cash?

(02-01-2014 07:05 PM)conservative Wrote:  

After 10 years, you should be able to make around 10 times your invested capital.

In 10 years, there will be another crash, so you should be able to sell for the same 40K you bought your property for, and hope you don't get robbed on the way out of the closing by thieves contracted by the buyer or the transfer agent.

His analysis was correct, but his timing was a little off. You would want to arrive about six months after the worst was over and calm was restored. You would want to cash out about five or six years into the new economic cycle, about a year away from the next presidential election where it appeared likely that a Peronista or socialist candidate might win.

[JJ Roberts]

(02-01-2014 06:40 PM)marksoc Wrote:  

I am from Argentina and I know a little thing or two about economics.

lol.

[conservative]

(02-02-2014 01:45 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  

(02-02-2014 09:37 AM)conservative Wrote:  

On a hyerinflation, the interest rates goes very high and thus long term loans becomes impossible. The demand on real estate will drop like crazy, add to that people focusing on primary/vital expenses...

Do Argentine banks even offer mortgages to locals for real estate transactions (as a general rule)? In many Latin American countries, real estate transactions are almost always cash-based.

My point is not that you will be unable to get a loan (because, as a foreigner, you would not be able to do that during even good economic times). My point is that the reason for a huge decline in property values may have nothing to do with the unavailability of loans to locals, but simply the panic to obtain any type of hard currency to satisfy basic survival needs (real or perceived).

Then again, perhaps unlike many Latin American countries, Argentine banks typically offer mortgage loans to locals (as a general rule). Perhaps a local could chime in. I did a quick Google search, but nothing jumped out.

I'd be surprised if banks are not giving long term loans for real estate properties to the average salaried citizen. Banks make money by renting it, the real estate long term renting is probably the most common/largest business for a bank.

[conservative]

(02-02-2014 04:57 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  

(02-02-2014 02:50 PM)portofmanteau Wrote:  

(02-01-2014 07:05 PM)conservative Wrote:  

guys, if you are thinking about real estate, then you should invest when prices are all the way down and the chaos/unrest is in peek. That being said, an apartment which is sold at $200K, should be traded at $30K-$40K.

When people are rioting in the streets, all banks are shut down, and martial law is implemented is when you should invest? Is that when you're going to stroll around with a briefcase full of $40K cash?

(02-01-2014 07:05 PM)conservative Wrote:  

After 10 years, you should be able to make around 10 times your invested capital.

In 10 years, there will be another crash, so you should be able to sell for the same 40K you bought your property for, and hope you don't get robbed on the way out of the closing by thieves contracted by the buyer or the transfer agent.

His analysis was correct, but his timing was a little off. You would want to arrive about six months after the worst was over and calm was restored. You would want to cash out about five or six years into the new economic cycle, about a year away from the next presidential election where it appeared likely that a Peronista or socialist candidate might win.

The price will be higher when things calm down because: 1. you are not the only one who wants to get the opportunity and 2. people will hoard their assets instead since the panic is over.

[Andoran]

(02-01-2014 06:40 PM)marksoc Wrote:  

I am from Argentina and I know a little thing or two about economics.

NO, the Argie economy will NOT crash, since we do not follow neocon policies anymore.

The current system is called "administrated devaluation". This means that devaluation of the peso follows inflation, which is caused by the oligopolistic structure of production and its response to increasing demand (and not due to money printing, like the ignoramus often spew).

So, expect to be it somewhat cheaper than last year, but no crash. Sorry dudes.

You have got to be kidding me, you have absolutely 0 knowledge of economics if you honestly believe any of that.

Either way, Argentina proves once again what leftist economics will do to a country, it's baffling to know USA wants to emulate such amazing results.

[portofmanteau]

(02-02-2014 04:57 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  

His analysis was correct, but his timing was a little off. You would want to arrive about six months after the worst was over and calm was restored. You would want to cash out about five or six years into the new economic cycle, about a year away from the next presidential election where it appeared likely that a Peronista or socialist candidate might win.

Bull trap warnings apply. Forget trying to time the bottom if you're within a 2 year range of the low here you're going to see significant gains. If you're sweating the difference then you can't afford to be doing this in the first place.

For cashing out I agree with you ~6 years after the bottom of the bust is a good rule of thumb.

[portofmanteau]

(02-02-2014 05:13 PM)conservative Wrote:  

I'd be surprised if banks are not giving long term loans for real estate properties to the average salaried citizen. Banks make money by renting it, the real estate long term renting is probably the most common/largest business for a bank.

You don't know anything about Argentina and should stop writing on this topic.

[marksoc]

(02-02-2014 05:21 PM)Andoran Wrote:  

(02-01-2014 06:40 PM)marksoc Wrote:  

I am from Argentina and I know a little thing or two about economics.

NO, the Argie economy will NOT crash, since we do not follow neocon policies anymore.

The current system is called "administrated devaluation". This means that devaluation of the peso follows inflation, which is caused by the oligopolistic structure of production and its response to increasing demand (and not due to money printing, like the ignoramus often spew).

So, expect to be it somewhat cheaper than last year, but no crash. Sorry dudes.

You have got to be kidding me, you have absolutely 0 knowledge of economics if you honestly believe any of that.

Either way, Argentina proves once again what leftist economics will do to a country, it's baffling to know USA wants to emulate such amazing results.

Guess what? I make money from my knowledge of Political Economy . The stupid sell bonds because they are afraid and believe all the shit that right-wing neocon "newspapers" sell them. I buy low, and rake the profits almost immediately. Same stupid people that sold real estate for peanuts in 2003, because they did not trusted a supposedly "leftist" government.

There will be no crash this year. Just look at the prices and comments about GDP-linked bonds in investors´ websites. It is just a policy of gradual devaluation (20% for us Argies is nothing) and Keynesian policies directed to consumption. Yes we have 25% inflation (this year will probably by 30%, depending on the direction the government takes, if decides to cool the economy or not).

[john54]

(02-02-2014 10:44 PM)marksoc Wrote:  

(02-02-2014 05:21 PM)Andoran Wrote:  

(02-01-2014 06:40 PM)marksoc Wrote:  

I am from Argentina and I know a little thing or two about economics.

NO, the Argie economy will NOT crash, since we do not follow neocon policies anymore.

The current system is called "administrated devaluation". This means that devaluation of the peso follows inflation, which is caused by the oligopolistic structure of production and its response to increasing demand (and not due to money printing, like the ignoramus often spew).

So, expect to be it somewhat cheaper than last year, but no crash. Sorry dudes.

You have got to be kidding me, you have absolutely 0 knowledge of economics if you honestly believe any of that.

Either way, Argentina proves once again what leftist economics will do to a country, it's baffling to know USA wants to emulate such amazing results.

Guess what? I make money from my knowledge of Political Economy . The stupid sell bonds because they are afraid and believe all the shit that right-wing neocon "newspapers" sell them. I buy low, and rake the profits almost immediately. Same stupid people that sold real estate for peanuts in 2003, because they did not trusted a supposedly "leftist" government.

There will be no crash this year. Just look at the prices and comments about GDP-linked bonds in investors´ websites. It is just a policy of gradual devaluation (20% for us Argies is nothing) and Keynesian policies directed to consumption. Yes we have 25% inflation (this year will probably by 30%, depending on the direction the government takes, if decides to cool the economy or not).

If someone had USD to invest in Argentina what would you recommend they buy with it today?

[marksoc]

(02-02-2014 10:57 PM)john54 Wrote:  

(02-02-2014 10:44 PM)marksoc Wrote:  

(02-02-2014 05:21 PM)Andoran Wrote:  

(02-01-2014 06:40 PM)marksoc Wrote:  

I am from Argentina and I know a little thing or two about economics.

NO, the Argie economy will NOT crash, since we do not follow neocon policies anymore.

The current system is called "administrated devaluation". This means that devaluation of the peso follows inflation, which is caused by the oligopolistic structure of production and its response to increasing demand (and not due to money printing, like the ignoramus often spew).

So, expect to be it somewhat cheaper than last year, but no crash. Sorry dudes.

You have got to be kidding me, you have absolutely 0 knowledge of economics if you honestly believe any of that.

Either way, Argentina proves once again what leftist economics will do to a country, it's baffling to know USA wants to emulate such amazing results.

Guess what? I make money from my knowledge of Political Economy . The stupid sell bonds because they are afraid and believe all the shit that right-wing neocon "newspapers" sell them. I buy low, and rake the profits almost immediately. Same stupid people that sold real estate for peanuts in 2003, because they did not trusted a supposedly "leftist" government.

There will be no crash this year. Just look at the prices and comments about GDP-linked bonds in investors´ websites. It is just a policy of gradual devaluation (20% for us Argies is nothing) and Keynesian policies directed to consumption. Yes we have 25% inflation (this year will probably by 30%, depending on the direction the government takes, if decides to cool the economy or not).

If someone had USD to invest in Argentina what would you recommend they buy with it today?

No need to invest "in Argentina" when you can do the same at home but "in" Argentinean stock (ADRs). I think YPF (the national oil company) is a safe bet, but not the same amazing deal it was a year ago (when it did go from 12-15 USD to 33 USD). Now it is in turmoil, but great things are expected of it. For less risk, normal USD Bonds like Boden 2015 give 7% annual interest in USD, but that seems low.

GDP-linked bonds in dollars (code: TVPA / TVPY) are something like 87 pesos (10,80 USD as today) and give the right to receive 6,30 USD in December 2014 and I think 24 USD more (I don´t remember if the 24 USD is the total or if it is extra after the 6,30 USD of this year, since I buy the one in pesos) in the next years if the local economy grow more than 3% each year. Each time you receive a payment, that amount is deduced from the price of the bond.

In short, there are many opportunities in developing countries like Argentina because the perceived risk is big. Best offers were a couple of years ago, but there is still the chance to get on the wagon. I can´t abide for any risk other people take, I am just telling you what my experience, as a new and very small investor, was in this, my local market. If you are up for it, you can do some trading with a local pan-latin stock-market website. Some of them have "investment simulators" where you can play with virtual money to see what would happen based on your decisions. It is best if you are versed in local politics (and don´t read only one source, especially given the interests behind the media empires).

(About what everybody asks: I don´t know about real estate, there is not enough demand right now, but at the same time people don´t want to sell, because they want hard USD currency as payment).

[BIGBOY]

I lived in Argentina off and on the last 3 years and did an internship for 6 months at an investment bank in Buenos Aires. Portofmanteau is is pretty spot on. It's a unique country as its cut off from the global financial system. Credit is pretty scarce for anything substantial, beyond a car or something of equal value. Most financing is done thru "fideicomisos".

If you don't 100% understand all thats involved in buying real estate in Argentina and the restrictions regarding moving money in and out of the country, you will likely get burned.

[Tex Pro]

I still think there will be a crash in Argentina.

Argentina's dollar reserves will be gone in a few months, and then we will see panic set in.



Argentina Scrambles To Raise $10 Billion, Avoid Reserve Collapse; BONARs Bidless:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-01...rs-bidless

[JJ Roberts]

US might default on debt by the end of Feb

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-26021640

[Tex Pro]

(02-03-2014 02:02 PM)JJ Roberts Wrote:  

US might default on debt by the end of Feb

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-26021640

The USA only defaults if it wants to default (by not raising the debt ceiling).

Argentina is defaulting unless some miracle happens.

[Steve9]

(02-02-2014 11:54 PM)marksoc Wrote:  

No need to invest "in Argentina" when you can do the same at home but "in" Argentinean stock (ADRs).

Marksoc, what are your thoughts on Cresud (CRESY)?

Cresud is a very large Argentina-based farm company with about 2.4 million acres of land in Argentina. The company is a farmer of soybeans (making up 56% of its crops), corn (20%) and single digit percentages of sugarcane, sunflower, wheat and other grains. The company has livestock operations in beef cattle ranching, sheep herding and dairy cow milking.