Quote: (11-25-2013 01:55 PM)Sawyer Wrote:
Taleb may believe gold is fragile because there is a possibility that it becomes a remnant of a disappearing world.
When things really go south, they're not going to go south for the elite. They'll be getting richer, trading via inside deals, jetting to exclusive enclaves. They will become more untouchable than ever. In this respect, holding ancient stores of value, and therefore ancient beliefs about the meaning of value, can be a negative mental anchor, and therefore fragile.
For those stuck to the old ways, who will remain in District 9, physical gold makes sense. If nothing else it will be valuable for trade: staples, bullets, housing.
Taleb believes gold is fragile because he believes the elite have the infrastructure to pull away this time, and he doesn't plan on trading gold for beans and shitting in the woods.
That is actually a very thoughtful reply.
I myself am not expecting a "Road Warrior" scenario, but a temporary scenario such as another Great Depression or a world in which most countries have economies similar to Argentina and Greece. Or the most plausible and inevitable scenario, where the U.S. dollar loses its status as the world's reserve currency.
I think that gold and silver would do well in such scenarios. They always do. They also make many people wealthy.
Your idea, however, is one plausible hypothesis as to why Taleb might think about gold the way that he does. But it does not explain away what would happen to the price of gold if even a few percent of bondholders or equity holders flee to gold and silver, instead of the U.S. dollar and U.S. treasuries.