Quote: (12-02-2014 09:44 AM)Bad Hussar Wrote:
Quote: (12-02-2014 09:04 AM)Sonsowey Wrote:
If Musk is actually responsible for colonizing Mars, would it be an exagerration to say he is the most important man in our species' history?
As a fellow South African-Canadian for weird patriotic reasons I would like this to be true, but I think it's just talk. It would be phenomenally difficult to do this.
And maybe other forum members can explain to me why Musk, and others, always talk about Mars? What about the moon? It's closer and must be so much easier to get to and from. You know, crawl before you can walk.
Bad Hussar, you are so close to the truth it's unreal. Check back in 1-2 years and you will be amazed. People always talk Mars because there are some resources you could extract from the atmosphere or subsurface ices. The next Mars rover will have a small experiment on board that will reduce the CO2 in the atmosphere into CO and O2. But it is an order of magnitude more expensive to get there than the moon. Smart people have studied both options, with the result depending on the assumptions you make gong in. It's not a clear cut problem. For example, would we have access to reasonable amounts of water ice in the moon's south pole craters? Who knows.
My take is if you want to protect the species from global civilization-killing asteroids, go underwater. Much cheaper to establish a seafloor colony would be my educated guess. But that is retreating, not evolving.
The current SpaceX focus is commercial satellite launches, cargo to ISS and shortly humans to ISS via the Commercial Crew Program. Their reusable program, Falcon 9R, may lower costs by a factor of 10 or more (Next launch in 2 weeks 12/16/2014 with the first stage
attempting a landing on a barge in the Atlantic, video coverage via quadcopter drone). Once Falcon Heavy gets online, they'll be doing air force and NRO launches as well. I've been inside their factory three times, and each time it seems twice as busy as before. If their stock was publicly traded, I'd be buying. They're a for-profit entity, so their focus must be on profit. Later once cheap access to space is established, and some personnel-protection issues are sorted out by NASA and others, then Mars/lunar colonization will make more sense. But never financial sense. I suspect in 20 years Musk will cash in his and others' personal fortunes on starting a Mars colony.
Most important man in our species' history? I would say potentially for the last 100 years; I'm not a historian so can't comment for all times. In our time of relative ennui, where current western civilization seems to be declining, here is a person who is saying "Let's go. Advance. Dream. Do better." on several fronts for the betterment of
all humanity, attempting to dramatically lower costs of 1) access to space 2) solar power 3) electric transport and 4) global internet.
Ultra alpha playboy genius? Maybe not in the gaming chicks domain, but in more important areas, most fucking definitely.