I agree that it is a mistake to trade frequently and try to outguess the market. At the same time, if you had simply bought and held over the last 10 years, your return would be pretty poor (less than 2% annually) and you would have actually been negative until the market rallied over the past 4 months. You have to think hard about which stocks to buy and at what entry points. I don't think you can just buy an index fund and expect growth over the mid-term or even enough growth over the long term to justify the risk. I think a middle of the road approach where you try to buy good stocks at a good price with the intention of holding them for 1-3 years is probably the best approach.
But what do I know. I sat out the recent rally.
But what do I know. I sat out the recent rally.