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Australian Stock Market
#4

Australian Stock Market

Julio Monadelphous is a quality company with good management and with good long-term prospects and a strong balance sheet, but is highly cyclical. I would say it is potentially worth buying if the share price ever dips under $6 again but you have to own it with a 10+ year time horizon to be able to ride out any potential commodities and or construction downcycles.

Ratinthewoods most of the higher yielding "blue chip" companies in my opinion could end up reducing dividends. In my opinion you are better off focusing on how much a company is likely to pay in dividends over the next 5, 10 and 20 years rather than just looking at the current yield.

Therefore I would focus on companies that pay a reasonable dividend but that will grow earnings over time. Some examples would be Seek (SEK), Blackmores (BKL) and Platinum Asset Management (PTM). For Blackmores you might get a modest reduction in dividends over the next 12 months due to a possible dip in earnings the coming year but I think after that the growth will pick up again. I think United Overseas Investments (UOS) the asian property developer listed on the ASX is undervalued with good long term growth prospects, however the yield is solid but unfranked. Tamawood (TWD) the Australian property developer is another good bet which pays a solid dividend yield and is a good bet if you believe as I do that the property bull market in Australia will continue for some years to come. Credit Corp (CCP) which is Australia's largest debt collector (I believe their overseas expansion will be successful in the long-term) is another good long-term bet, and if the share price pulls back to under $15 at some point it would be worth buying.

In terms of larger companies I think some of the big healthcare stocks like Cochlear (COH), Ramsay Healthcare (RHC) and CSL (CSL) are currently overavalued but would be good to buy on any major pullbacks as they have a solid growth trajectory and will increase dividends and earnings strongly over time. Also Realestate.com (REA) is another quality large company (it does online realestate advertising) that is currently overavalued but that you should look to buy on any major pullbacks.

I would avoid Woolworths (WOW), Wesfarmers (WES), the big banks, the big mining and energy stocks, the big insurance companies and Telstra (TLS). I think these companies will struggle to generate much growth (as in earnings and dividend growth) over the next five years.
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