I didn't see any evidence nor plausible stuff, but I will speak in general terms.
If you have the choice between a plate and a new notch (above 40% chance), go for the new notch.
Otherwise, go with the one that brings the highest odds.
If you have the choice between a plate and a new notch (above 40% chance), go for the new notch.
Otherwise, go with the one that brings the highest odds.