ITALeave. Italian exit from the EU thread. - Printable Version

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ITALeave. Italian exit from the EU thread. - Leonard D Neubache - 12-02-2016

Well Zero Hedge is calling it so I'm getting in early and creating the thread.

How December 4th Could Trigger The "Most Violent Economic Shock In History"

Quote:Quote:

Submitted by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,

It was the one moment that convinced Hitler suicide was better than surrendering. On the morning of April 29, 1945, the bodies of Italian dictator Benito Mussolini and his mistress were dumped like garbage into Milan’s Piazzale Loreto. A large mob of Italians quickly gathered. They pelted the former leader’s corpse with vegetables. They spat on it. They urinated on it. Some even emptied their pistols into his lifeless body. After a few hours, the crowd hung the bodies from a metal girder at a nearby gas station for all to see.

I walked through Piazzale Loreto during a recent trip to Italy, which is suffering its worst economic downturn since 1945. And I realized that Italians are angrier now than they’ve been since they hung Il Duce up by his heels. Italy has had no productive growth since 1999. Real GDP per person is smaller than it was at the turn of the century. That’s almost two decades of economic stagnation. By any measure, the Italian economy is in a deep depression. And things will probably get much worse.

It’s no surprise Italians are in a revolutionary mood...

The Five Star Movement (M5S) is Italy’s new populist political party. It’s anti-globalist, anti-euro, and vehemently anti-establishment. It doesn’t neatly fall into the left–right political paradigm. M5S has become the most popular political party in Italy. It blames the country’s chronic lack of growth on the euro currency. A large plurality of Italians agrees. M5S has promised to hold a vote to leave the euro and reinstate Italy’s old currency, the lira, as soon as it’s in power. That could be very soon. Given the chance, Italians probably would vote to return to the lira. If that happens, it would awaken a monetary volcano.

The Financial Times recently put it this way:

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An Italian exit from the single currency would trigger the total collapse of the eurozone within a very short period.

It would probably lead to the most violent economic shock in history, dwarfing the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008 and the 1929 Wall Street crash.

If the FT is even partially right, it means a stock market crash of historic proportions could be imminent. It could devastate anyone with a brokerage account. Here’s how it could all happen…

On December 4, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s current pro-EU government is holding a referendum on changing Italy’s constitution. In effect, a “Yes” vote is a vote of approval for Renzi’s government. A “No” vote is a chance for the average Italian to give the finger to EU bureaucrats in Brussels. Given the intense anger Italians feel right now, it’s very likely they’ll do just that.

According to the latest polls, the “No” camp has 54% support and all of the momentum. Even prominent members of Renzi’s own party are defecting to the “No” side. If the December 4 referendum fails, Renzi has promised to resign. Even if he doesn’t, the loss would politically castrate him. In all likelihood his government would collapse. (Italian governments have a short shelf life. There have been 63 since 1945. That’s almost a rate of a new government each year.)

One way or another, M5S will come to power. It’s just a matter of when. If Renzi’s December 4 referendum fails—and it looks like it will—M5S will likely take over within months. Once it’s in power, M5S will hold a referendum on leaving the euro and returning to the lira. Italians will likely vote to leave.Italy is the third-largest member of the Eurozone. If it leaves, it will have the psychological effect of yelling “Fire!” in a crowded theater. Other countries—notably France—will quickly head for the exit and return to their national currencies.

Think of the euro as the economic glue holding the EU together. Without it, economic ties weaken, and the whole EU project unravels. The EU is the world’s largest economy. If it collapses, it would trigger an unprecedented global stock market crash. That’s how important Italy’s December 4 referendum is. It would be the first domino to fall.

Almost no one else is talking about this. That’s why I just spent several weeks in Italy, taking the pulse of the country. Italy’s December 4 referendum could make or break your wealth this year. If it fails, the EU, which has the world’s largest economy, will likely fall apart… triggering an epic stock market crash.

Minor edits for readability.

Forewarned is forearmed. I don't buy into the panic personally. These market experts have been predicting "the big crash" at six month intervals for the last decade.

Having said that, arable farmland rarely diminishes in value. Invest wisely.

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ITALeave. Italian exit from the EU thread. - Travesty - 12-02-2016

My gut feeling as a layman that doesn't know economics well, is why wasn't Brexit the first domino? Even if Italy is tied into the Eurozone more, Brexit seems psychologically much bigger and nothing bad has happened.

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ITALeave. Italian exit from the EU thread. - Paracelsus - 12-02-2016

Quote: (12-02-2016 11:43 PM)Travesty Wrote:  

My gut feeling as a layman that doesn't know economics well, is why wasn't Brexit the first domino? Even if Italy is tied into the Eurozone more, Brexit seems psychologically much bigger and nothing bad has happened.

At a guess, because England's banks were solvent without the EU.

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ITALeave. Italian exit from the EU thread. - britchard - 12-03-2016

Thanks for making a separate thread, this could definitely be big! The Italeave will only start to be thought about if the 'NO' vote wins in tomorrow's referendum, so if that happens then this thread will be null and void (at least for a few years). But I want to say that the 'no' vote will win.

Britain's banks aren't completely tied to the EU or the Euro, and it has long been said that if another large country left, it would pretty much be over. Granted, Italy leaving isn't the same as when we left, or if France or Germany left as its economy is much smaller, but it would probably cause the EU to collapse very quickly.

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ITALeave. Italian exit from the EU thread. - Perfectionist - 12-03-2016

Betfair Odds = https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/....127242752

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ITALeave. Italian exit from the EU thread. - Libertas - 12-03-2016

Quote: (12-02-2016 11:43 PM)Travesty Wrote:  

My gut feeling as a layman that doesn't know economics well, is why wasn't Brexit the first domino? Even if Italy is tied into the Eurozone more, Brexit seems psychologically much bigger and nothing bad has happened.

Brexit hasn't even happened yet officially but recall that the UK wasn't tied into the Eurozone. Italy is an entirely different story.

It actually might be better for us long term if Renzi wins for now because a big shock in the Eurozone would have a contagion effect and hamper Trump. Looks like the referendum is going to fail though.

Shit situation either way. The euro was a terrible idea and an experiment certain to fail without a fiscal union. But people rightly don't want to subsume their country into some bureaucratic blob.

Hopefully smart people in Europe are thinking about finding ways to replace the EU and building new institutions to dampen the shock of its inevitable collapse.

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ITALeave. Italian exit from the EU thread. - Snowplow - 12-03-2016

If they do pull it off that cartoon with the Globalist octopus will have to be updated!

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ITALeave. Italian exit from the EU thread. - Gustavus Adolphus - 12-03-2016

Is this thread talking about something different than this similar one:

thread-58026.html

?

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ITALeave. Italian exit from the EU thread. - Adonis - 12-03-2016

I posted in the other thread, but Ill be watching the referendum and follow on events carefully. The reason why Italy would have much more impact is that it is a core country to the Euro currency itself and the 3rd largest economy after Germany and France. Also many Euro banks have 300 bil + exposure to Italian debt which could very well trigger massive credit default swaps (CDS) similar to when AIG and Lehman Bros went tits up here in the US. Britain neither used the euro or had its time bomb-like debt riddled throughout the Eurozone so its impact was mainly market based as opposed to the structural foundations of the currency. One other thing to keep in mind is something I posted in the other thread:

Quote: (09-03-2016 01:45 PM)Adonis Wrote:  

Black swan: Although one thing Italy has that the other PIIGS don't is the 4th largest gold holdings in the world @ 2450 tons. In extremis (say after a force majeure on debt) they may just be arrogant enough to thumb their noses at Brussels and peg a new Lira to those reserves.

In a twist of historic irony one of the major dominoes of the Great Depression in Europe, Creditanstalt, is now owned by an Italian holding company.

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ITALeave. Italian exit from the EU thread. - britchard - 12-03-2016

Quote: (12-03-2016 12:07 PM)Gustavus Adolphus Wrote:  

Is this thread talking about something different than this similar one:

thread-58026.html

?

Yes they are different, although intrinsically linked. ITALeave is less likely to happen if a 'Yes' vote wins in the referendum.

Quote: (12-03-2016 12:34 PM)Adonis Wrote:  

I posted in the other thread, but Ill be watching the referendum and follow on events carefully. The reason why Italy would have much more impact is that it is a core country to the Euro currency itself and the 3rd largest economy after Germany and France. Also many Euro banks have 300 bil + exposure to Italian debt which could very well trigger massive credit default swaps (CDS) similar to when AIG and Lehman Bros went tits up here in the US. Britain neither used the euro or had its time bomb-like debt riddled throughout the Eurozone so its impact was mainly market based as opposed to the structural foundations of the currency. One other thing to keep in mind is something I posted in the other thread:

Forgive me for not understanding first time, but are you saying Italy has a time-bomb like debt or that Britain does?

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ITALeave. Italian exit from the EU thread. - Adonis - 12-03-2016

Quote: (12-03-2016 04:26 PM)britchard Wrote:  

Forgive me for not understanding first time, but are you saying Italy has a time-bomb like debt or that Britain does?

Italy does. The problem is really two-fold. On the domestic front the % of non performing loans has risen dramatically, and across the Eurozone exposure to Italian debt is quite large for France especially. Its all a house of cards built on debt. Debt instruments serve as collateral for more debt and its all marked to a theoretical value instead of being regularly marked to market. Now if/when there is a default, which the % of non performing loans seems to indicate is coming, then those "assets" will have to be marked to market which sets off the cascading default.

Graphs from this article.

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ITALeave. Italian exit from the EU thread. - John_Galt - 12-03-2016

I just wanted to give props for the term "ItALeave". Fucking brilliant. If you coined that, please give yourself a pat on the back for me.

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ITALeave. Italian exit from the EU thread. - Leonard D Neubache - 12-03-2016

Quote: (12-03-2016 06:19 PM)John_Galt Wrote:  

I just wanted to give props for the term "ItALeave". Fucking brilliant. If you coined that, please give yourself a pat on the back for me.

I think I heard it somewhere before back when Brexit first became a thing. I checked for it through various search engines but Italexit seemed to be the unimaginative default. Sad!

I'll be the first to apologise if this thread is a dupe. The search engines can be pretty fickle and since I'm here most every day I couldn't recall a thread in the last few months that covered the issue. My bad.

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ITALeave. Italian exit from the EU thread. - Adonis - 12-03-2016

I posted this in the euphoric aftermath of Brexit, not mine though I found it in the Twitterverse.

Heres to one more...

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ITALeave. Italian exit from the EU thread. - andy - 12-03-2016

Wow, Bitcoin is going to the moon if this keeps up

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ITALeave. Italian exit from the EU thread. - booshala - 12-05-2016

Very curious to see the US market indexes are all strongly up today... it's like the no vote was already priced in and people took it and smiled. Beginning of a new era, perhaps?

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ITALeave. Italian exit from the EU thread. - Handsome Creepy Eel - 12-05-2016

Please accept my humble contribution to the gallery above:

   

(Caption written in different style so to not obscure the bangable bodies)

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ITALeave. Italian exit from the EU thread. - Wreckingball - 12-05-2016

Quote: (12-05-2016 02:34 PM)booshala Wrote:  

Very curious to see the US market indexes are all strongly up today... it's like the no vote was already priced in and people took it and smiled. Beginning of a new era, perhaps?

big players aren't dumb. they are already enough diversified that they will win with the eu collapse or win with a stronger eu.

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ITALeave. Italian exit from the EU thread. - JohnKreese - 12-05-2016

Alright gents! Who voted "no"??!!

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"Actress who offered to perform sex act on everyone who voted ‘No’ in Italian referendum launches tour of cities to make good on promise"

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2329060/ac...n-promise/

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ITALeave. Italian exit from the EU thread. - AneroidOcean - 12-05-2016

Quote: (12-05-2016 04:31 PM)JohnKreese Wrote:  

Alright gents! Who voted "no"??!!

Quote:Quote:

"Actress who offered to perform sex act on everyone who voted ‘No’ in Italian referendum launches tour of cities to make good on promise"

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2329060/ac...n-promise/

I'm sad I missed this ITALeave as I still have money in PredictIt and would've gladly used some of it on No. Oh well. From the article linked above:

Quote:Quote:

Paola often posts nude pictures on social media and has declared that she is a big fan of a certain sex act.

Her offer comes after Madonna famously offered to perform a similar sex act on anyone who voted for Hillary Clinton, though no reports have emerged that the 58-year-old singer has followed through on her promise.

The European Union suffered another blow today after Italy’s pro-EU prime minister resigned following a heavy referendum defeat.

I see what you did there ^^^

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ITALeave. Italian exit from the EU thread. - Befikre - 12-05-2016

Not a fan of Italian women, but I wonder if they are easier due to all the political volatility?

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ITALeave. Italian exit from the EU thread. - Ithrynor - 12-05-2016

I'm in Italia at the moment. Let's just say, that actress is among the dregs of what's available. :-)

But hey, at least she keeps her word. Forse. :-)

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ITALeave. Italian exit from the EU thread. - Paracelsus - 12-05-2016

Quote: (12-05-2016 04:31 PM)JohnKreese Wrote:  

Alright gents! Who voted "no"??!!

Quote:Quote:

"Actress who offered to perform sex act on everyone who voted ‘No’ in Italian referendum launches tour of cities to make good on promise"

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2329060/ac...n-promise/

WB (Would Brexit)

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ITALeave. Italian exit from the EU thread. - Kona - 01-29-2017

She's really doing it.

So far she's blown 400 dudes.

http://www.dailydot.com/unclick/paola-sa...wjob-tour/

Aloha!

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ITALeave. Italian exit from the EU thread. - John Michael Kane - 01-29-2017

Yikes. Is it really worth it if you have to wash your weiner in acid just to be safe afterwards?

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