Stock Market 2015 - Printable Version

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Stock Market 2015 - Steve9 - 01-22-2015

Quote: (01-22-2015 02:45 PM)samsamsam Wrote:  

Not sure quite where to put this request. But any of you have access or know where I could get analyst reports on the outlook of oil? I need to find price forecasts on oil with dates.

If you could PM or post something here that would be much appreciated.

I have been able to find tidbits in articles like this one from zacks but it would be nice to get my hands on the reports.

http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/159423/c...hed-bottom

Thanks so much.

SSS

SSS, oil prices are notoriously hard to predict, but they're especially unpredictable right now, as they're beholden to the decisions of a small number of individuals acting for both economic and non-economic reasons.

6 months ago with Brent crude at $110, the bullish oil analysts were predicting $115 or $120, and the bears $105 or $100. No one predicted oil to fall so much, to $48 within 6 months.

I would caution against buying any energy related stocks for now as we will probably see a better entry point later this year.

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Stock Market 2015 - michelin - 01-24-2015

Quote: (01-05-2015 10:49 PM)samsamsam Wrote:  

And do any of you ever see the Euro/USD rate ever reaching 1 to 1?

Yes. In fact it´s happening already, after the ECB recently decided to devaluate the EUR.

I predict before March we will be at 1:1, before Summer the USD will be stronger than the EUR

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Stock Market 2015 - monster - 01-24-2015

Quote: (01-05-2015 11:10 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:  

Quote: (01-05-2015 10:16 PM)monster Wrote:  

Quote: (01-05-2015 10:05 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:  

For the rest of you gamblers out there end of january is typically a great time to be long Crude futures(CL) or Gasonline (RB). There are mini contracts in crude and gasoline if you dont want to buy a full size contract which will run you about $7000. Mini contracts are still around the $2500-$3000 mark depending on volatility

Heading into the spring even in a down year like this, typically CL and RB will climb into March or April. It is almost like clockwork that this trade will work out in your favor

you could also buy the ETF USO or use options on the ETF. I like futures though for the leverage. Be sure to use stops as futures can move quickly and you can lose money quickly. The good thing is the contracts are highly liquid and you can get in and out of these things in an instant

No offense, but is this a joke? Crude just dropped below $50 the lowest its been for a decade or somewhere thereabouts & historically oil has already made good progress on its ascent for wintertime by early January. Yes crude will revert to the mean, but leverage on something as volatile as crude right now? That's a helluva lot of risk appetite.

History says you are dead wrong. the chart below will back up my claim.

Historically oil and gas rise in the spring in anticipation of the summer driving. Not at the end of the year. In fact historically oil trades down to flat at the end of the year.

Secondly oil was lower than we are now in 2009. And guess what happened? It bottomed in January and then again 2 nd week of February and then zoomed way up well into the late spring.

The chart below shows that for the last 15 year oil has gone up from January/early february into the spring. It has happened 14 of that last 15 years and that includes one financial crisis and one tech bubble.

How's your oil trade working out so far?

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Stock Market 2015 - samsamsam - 01-24-2015

Anyone got access to a Bloomberg terminal? I need a favor.

I want to get the forward contract curve for oil. Someone told me that usually on this chart there is also going to be analysts estimates for oil. Possibly quarterly he said. He doesn't have access to a terminal or he would do it.

I am not using this for stock purchasing. I am actually doing a research for work.

I'll owe you big if you could help me out.

Thanks.

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Stock Market 2015 - monster - 01-24-2015

you dont need boomberg for that stockcharts takes care of that

heres the feb contract

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%5EBG15...6430991903

just type in ^ in search and it gives all the months.

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Stock Market 2015 - Moreless - 01-25-2015

Quote: (01-24-2015 11:40 AM)monster Wrote:  

Quote: (01-05-2015 11:10 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:  

Quote: (01-05-2015 10:16 PM)monster Wrote:  

Quote: (01-05-2015 10:05 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:  

For the rest of you gamblers out there end of january is typically a great time to be long Crude futures(CL) or Gasonline (RB). There are mini contracts in crude and gasoline if you dont want to buy a full size contract which will run you about $7000. Mini contracts are still around the $2500-$3000 mark depending on volatility

Heading into the spring even in a down year like this, typically CL and RB will climb into March or April. It is almost like clockwork that this trade will work out in your favor

you could also buy the ETF USO or use options on the ETF. I like futures though for the leverage. Be sure to use stops as futures can move quickly and you can lose money quickly. The good thing is the contracts are highly liquid and you can get in and out of these things in an instant

No offense, but is this a joke? Crude just dropped below $50 the lowest its been for a decade or somewhere thereabouts & historically oil has already made good progress on its ascent for wintertime by early January. Yes crude will revert to the mean, but leverage on something as volatile as crude right now? That's a helluva lot of risk appetite.

History says you are dead wrong. the chart below will back up my claim.

Historically oil and gas rise in the spring in anticipation of the summer driving. Not at the end of the year. In fact historically oil trades down to flat at the end of the year.

Secondly oil was lower than we are now in 2009. And guess what happened? It bottomed in January and then again 2 nd week of February and then zoomed way up well into the late spring.

The chart below shows that for the last 15 year oil has gone up from January/early february into the spring. It has happened 14 of that last 15 years and that includes one financial crisis and one tech bubble.

How's your oil trade working out so far?

It's the end of January, I'm hoping BIGINJAPAN is right

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Stock Market 2015 - Julio - 01-25-2015

Quote: (01-24-2015 02:17 PM)samsamsam Wrote:  

Anyone got access to a Bloomberg terminal? I need a favor.

I want to get the forward contract curve for oil. Someone told me that usually on this chart there is also going to be analysts estimates for oil. Possibly quarterly he said. He doesn't have access to a terminal or he would do it.

I am not using this for stock purchasing. I am actually doing a research for work.

I'll owe you big if you could help me out.

Thanks.

Just sent you a PM

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Stock Market 2015 - monster - 01-25-2015

Just to give you an idea of where we are in the current the bull cycle we're in...you can see the rapid escalation of the market since 2009 - the fastest acceleration we've ever seen.

How much longer do you think it can continue for before a correction down to say 1400ish.

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Stock Market 2015 - Peregrine - 01-25-2015

Quote:Quote:

How much longer do you think it can continue for before a correction down to say 1400ish.

The question I'm asking myself is whether I want to be long volatility or short S&P when that happens. For now, the answer has been the former.

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Stock Market 2015 - samsamsam - 01-31-2015

Hate to do this but have another request, I am trying to track down a pitch deck an investment bank would give to a potential IPO client. The things that need to be answered, etc. I have found some materials from accounting firms and have been searching through those websites like slideshare. Anyone have one handy or a link?

Thanks. I didn't want to start another thread and seems like a lot of finance guys are on this thread. It would be ideal if it was from an IB. Thanks.

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Stock Market 2015 - monster - 02-01-2015

Quote: (01-31-2015 10:45 PM)samsamsam Wrote:  

Hate to do this but have another request, I am trying to track down a pitch deck an investment bank would give to a potential IPO client. The things that need to be answered, etc. I have found some materials from accounting firms and have been searching through those websites like slideshare. Anyone have one handy or a link?

Thanks. I didn't want to start another thread and seems like a lot of finance guys are on this thread. It would be ideal if it was from an IB. Thanks.

Google is your friend
http://www.businessinsider.com/groupon-i...entation-1

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Stock Market 2015 - samsamsam - 02-01-2015

Quote: (02-01-2015 12:43 AM)monster Wrote:  

Quote: (01-31-2015 10:45 PM)samsamsam Wrote:  

Hate to do this but have another request, I am trying to track down a pitch deck an investment bank would give to a potential IPO client. The things that need to be answered, etc. I have found some materials from accounting firms and have been searching through those websites like slideshare. Anyone have one handy or a link?

Thanks. I didn't want to start another thread and seems like a lot of finance guys are on this thread. It would be ideal if it was from an IB. Thanks.

Google is your friend
http://www.businessinsider.com/groupon-i...entation-1

Thanks for the link but that is a pitch to investors on the roadshow. I am asking for a presentation that IB give to their potential IPO clients that discusses the process and what questions need to be addressed and steps taken. I have found a lot of lawyer and accounting firm material addressing some of this, but still looking for an IB's presentation.

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Stock Market 2015 - michelin - 02-01-2015

Apple stock had a blast over the past year. Would anyone of you still buy at this time?

I'm a newbie to the markets, so don't want to take too much risk yet on Small caps. AAPL sounds like a safe bet, but the price/stock is a bit high right now.

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Stock Market 2015 - monster - 02-01-2015

Quote: (02-01-2015 02:35 AM)michelin Wrote:  

Apple stock had a blast over the past year. Would anyone of you still buy at this time?

I'm a newbie to the markets, so don't want to take too much risk yet on Small caps. AAPL sounds like a safe bet, but the price/stock is a bit high right now.

I bought some right before earnings last week. Been a great performer. Buying at 52 wk highs like this is a momentum strategy, but it's a safe bet with a performer like AAPL provided you have stoplosses in place.

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Stock Market 2015 - DVY - 02-10-2015

Bought TUP about 3 weeks ago. Discussed before.

Bought EBAY last week. Its more a short-term play. I think it'll pop 20-25% after the split. Paypal is a dominant brand in internet commerce. Ebay despite all the negative press makes a couple billion off their sales (growth is probably limited. going forward). Stripping out cash and property, there is some de-conglomeration run-up juice.

I'm still cautiously eyeing oil and gas stocks, but I believe its a false bottom. Candidates HFC, BHP, XOM and BP. Last few years have had stellar earnings, due to random 1-off price discrepancies.

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Stock Market 2015 - AntiTrace - 02-10-2015

Quote: (02-10-2015 03:38 PM)DVY Wrote:  

Bought TUP about 3 weeks ago. Discussed before.

Bought EBAY last week. Its more a short-term play. I think it'll pop 20-25% after the split. Paypal is a dominant brand in internet commerce. Ebay despite all the negative press makes a couple billion off their sales (growth is probably limited. going forward). Stripping out cash and property, there is some de-conglomeration run-up juice.

I'm still cautiously eyeing oil and gas stocks, but I believe its a false bottom. Candidates HFC, BHP, XOM and BP. Last few years have had stellar earnings, due to random 1-off price discrepancies.

I bought oil 2 weeks ago. Right about at its nearest bottom. Got BP and CVX. Thinking about taking a third position in XOM.

I hope it drops again, I'll accumulate all the way down.

I'm eyeing the greece situation. I'm a gambler and want to throw a few thousand in the bank of greece and see what comes out 10 years from now

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Stock Market 2015 - BIGINJAPAN - 02-10-2015

Quote: (01-25-2015 12:40 AM)Moreless Wrote:  

Quote: (01-24-2015 11:40 AM)monster Wrote:  

Quote: (01-05-2015 11:10 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:  

Quote: (01-05-2015 10:16 PM)monster Wrote:  

Quote: (01-05-2015 10:05 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:  

For the rest of you gamblers out there end of january is typically a great time to be long Crude futures(CL) or Gasonline (RB). There are mini contracts in crude and gasoline if you dont want to buy a full size contract which will run you about $7000. Mini contracts are still around the $2500-$3000 mark depending on volatility

Heading into the spring even in a down year like this, typically CL and RB will climb into March or April. It is almost like clockwork that this trade will work out in your favor

you could also buy the ETF USO or use options on the ETF. I like futures though for the leverage. Be sure to use stops as futures can move quickly and you can lose money quickly. The good thing is the contracts are highly liquid and you can get in and out of these things in an instant

No offense, but is this a joke? Crude just dropped below $50 the lowest its been for a decade or somewhere thereabouts & historically oil has already made good progress on its ascent for wintertime by early January. Yes crude will revert to the mean, but leverage on something as volatile as crude right now? That's a helluva lot of risk appetite.

History says you are dead wrong. the chart below will back up my claim.

Historically oil and gas rise in the spring in anticipation of the summer driving. Not at the end of the year. In fact historically oil trades down to flat at the end of the year.

Secondly oil was lower than we are now in 2009. And guess what happened? It bottomed in January and then again 2 nd week of February and then zoomed way up well into the late spring.

The chart below shows that for the last 15 year oil has gone up from January/early february into the spring. It has happened 14 of that last 15 years and that includes one financial crisis and one tech bubble.

How's your oil trade working out so far?

It's the end of January, I'm hoping BIGINJAPAN is right

I am in and out of the trade already. It moved so quickly i panicked and sold all within about 5 days. i got in around $1.60 and sold at $1.77

I am sitting around waiting to pick my spot again. Looks like it is setting up for another bull flag.... And now i am playing with house money with this trade since i doubled money already

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Stock Market 2015 - BIGINJAPAN - 02-10-2015

I should add I was playing the futures with the may RB contract

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Stock Market 2015 - lavidaloca - 02-10-2015

I bought small positions in Husky Energy (100 shares) and Cenovus Energy (100 shares) on Friday. Going to continue investing any new savings into oil as I currently only have around $30,000 of my portfolio in Oil...the vast majority in Suncor. The dividend for Husky and Cenovus made them very attractive to me both at a bit over 4% with plenty of room to grow dividends.

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Stock Market 2015 - samsamsam - 02-11-2015

Quote: (02-10-2015 10:57 PM)lavidaloca Wrote:  

I bought small positions in Husky Energy (100 shares) and Cenovus Energy (100 shares) on Friday. Going to continue investing any new savings into oil as I currently only have around $30,000 of my portfolio in Oil...the vast majority in Suncor. The dividend for Husky and Cenovus made them very attractive to me both at a bit over 4% with plenty of room to grow dividends.

You don't see the possibility of dividend cuts by either company? Lowered cash flows due to oil prices would worry me about a potential dividend cut. I will check them out. Thanks for sharing.

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Stock Market 2015 - lavidaloca - 02-12-2015

Quote: (02-11-2015 02:27 AM)samsamsam Wrote:  

Quote: (02-10-2015 10:57 PM)lavidaloca Wrote:  

I bought small positions in Husky Energy (100 shares) and Cenovus Energy (100 shares) on Friday. Going to continue investing any new savings into oil as I currently only have around $30,000 of my portfolio in Oil...the vast majority in Suncor. The dividend for Husky and Cenovus made them very attractive to me both at a bit over 4% with plenty of room to grow dividends.

You don't see the possibility of dividend cuts by either company? Lowered cash flows due to oil prices would worry me about a potential dividend cut. I will check them out. Thanks for sharing.

Dividend payout ratio is low. I'd have to find the article I read about their dividend payout ratio. Somewhere below 0.6 I recall, makes for some breathing room.

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Stock Market 2015 - lavidaloca - 02-12-2015

Heres an article from today about Cenovus.

http://www.fool.ca/2015/02/12/why-cenovu...-recovery/

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Stock Market 2015 - Steve9 - 02-12-2015

Quote: (01-20-2015 10:40 PM)Steve9 Wrote:  

Brought a full position today in Bank of Internet (BOFI) at $79.62, which is disrupting the industry by aiming to be the most innovative branch-less bank in the USA.

It has a very long runway for growth.

BOFI has performed well since I brought it 3 weeks ago - up 16% to $92.31

It continues to be one of my best growth ideas for the long term.

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Stock Market 2015 - lavidaloca - 02-13-2015

I'd be cautious with BOFI assuming this is the same company.

http://www.yelp.ca/biz/bank-of-internet-usa-san-diego-3

The reports there alone are enough to make my stomach turn as an investor.

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Stock Market 2015 - DVY - 02-13-2015

I added two fairly substantial equity stakes this week
1) Softbank- I've been watching this company for a while and I believe its just gotten too cheap. Its selling at 12 P/E, and possibly even 10 P/E if you manage to turn Sprint around. That and it is on the biggest VC funds for 3rd world countries. Its invested w/all the other dominant players in India and Asia (Naspers which is a big VC-like south-african company also collaborates w/them). They made timely investment in mobile gaming (Super-cell aka Clash of Clans and Gungho). Basically #1 and #2 mobile game of all time BY FAR. Its a 8% yielder w/a fat lotto ticket. I will likely never sell it. Just one more Ali-baba investment and you have a 10-20x on your investment.

2) Cloud Peak Energy- Low cost coal producer in Powder River Basin. Its coal spot price is seriously 1/3 of others. Part of this is due to lower BTU/ton but likely predominately due to transport costs from Wyoming middle of nowhere. Even at todays depressed nat gas prices (main energy source competitor), this coal is cheaper and also profitable. If on the off chance, coal becomes outlawed here in the USA, it can be sold in Asia. This coal is also among the lowest sulfur coal in the world. This will help w/pollution issues. There are a couple issues regarding overseas sales (price of transport, price of export, container ships ETC), but this is something the free market forces will figure out.

I am also getting it at a P/E of 4-5 (after stripping out cash. operating earnings will service debt). Minimal debt, unlike many other coal providers. This is truly a "unloved and unwanted" play- Obama's war on coal, natural gas fracking overabundance, transport issues, junk bond ratings on coal companies, EPA crackdowns, etc etc.

"King Coal" helped develop Britain and USA into industrial powerhouses. China, India and S. Korea all use it. Coal is mined, crushed into powder, and ready for use. No need for cracking or liquid-nitrogen fixation. Coal has the benefit of being a low-cost provider of energy w/downside of pollution. As such, even w/everything it still comprises 40% of energy in the US. Most of this is used by electrical ulitity companies.

Also another 10x stock opportunity, but not for the faint of heart. Be prepared to watch this baby drop in half, or jump 2x. Its a tough call, but i just pulled the trigger

Stocks on the look-out
1) Nestle- equity-bond. Basically a 3% yielder. Will add it to the permanent collection and treat it like real estate. Never sell, keep same historical cost, and reap increasing dividends. Its basically an inflation-adjusted bond for me
2) Diaego- equity-bond. Rough 3% yielder. Also will be added to permanent collection and treated like real estate. Just add some blue-chip stability into the mix. I love their brand value (Johnny Walker, Ketel One, Don Julio). This company ships products that are liquid gold. Its more expensive per liter than gasoline. Its also not super price-sensitive. Expect prices increases.
3) General Electric- equity-bond. This one is actually selling for relatively cheap. 16 P/E. They are going to ballast their financial division and focus on industrial. Their predix software and system will revolutionize ordering and supplies. They have fingers in all the pies too from consumer electronics to consumer goods to industrial supplies and services. Also a 3% yield.

^^^Those are my safe stocks and will be held in my taxable account at cost-basis and let sit for lifetime (or unless they start trading in the 30-35 P/E ratio). Basically my bond component, because why would I get treasury bonds selling at 2% when I can get blue chip that has 3% dividend. Its kind of indicative of how much the govt is pushing $ unto stocks

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