[Newbunymo]

The market has always fluctuated historically at the time of election. This is nothing new, hence you should be careful next time.

I guess the next time will come soon, having seen that Trump will be president now.

[renotime]

(11-04-2016 07:52 PM)polymath Wrote:  

(11-04-2016 06:40 PM)scotian Wrote:  

Let's say you had 5-10k to play with, are there any specific industries you'd invest in the day after Trump is elected (if it happens)? Mexican concrete and rebar or major North American moving companies perhaps?

Ok. Assuming I have the preferences, risk tolerance, and financial profile that I currently do, and risking 5-10k isn't going to make or break anything else in my life, I would do the following (perhaps even the day before the election):

American coal is a big one. Trump has pledged to deregulate the industry, and he has used his stance on coal as a symbol of support for American miners in general.

I'd want to be long the American investment banks, too. A Trump-selected Fed Chair would be more likely to raise rates (which benefits any entity that has tons of cash or near-cash deposits). More importantly, the Republicans want to reduce regulation in the financial industry. People talk about reinstating Glass-Steagall, but I think this would probably accompany a full or partial rollback of the Volcker Rule, RENTD regulations, and all the other rules currently weighing down Wall Street.

US automakers also stand to benefit under Trump. Despite the fact that American automakers are moving some of their production to other countries, it's not as significant as it's made out to be. For example, Ford's Small Car Division is moving to Mexico, but as far as I can tell, this move only shifts 2 cars: Focus and C-Max. Any protectionism or changes to existing trade deals like NAFTA would harm foreign automakers far more than American automakers. Not to mention that Trump detests TPP and wants to increase tariffs on Japanese autos sold in the USA.

Similarly, Trump would be worse for American beef, pork, poultry, soybeans, and other farming businesses. American beef is taxed extremely heavily -- 38.5% -- by the Japanese. TPP would reduce this tariff to 9%. Clinton has turned her back on TPP after calling it the "gold standard," but I have read that some of her insiders consider this a temporary stance, suggesting that she will resume support after the after the election. To summarize, TPP is bad for American automakers and good for American farmers, and Trump is more opposed to TPP than is Clinton.

I would hedge out some of the market exposure too, because I feel like shit's about to get weird in the equity market. You can obviously do this in an unsophisticated way by selling a dollar's worth of SPY for every dollar of long stock that you buy (netted against and short positions). It's unsophisticated because the assumption here is that correlations go to 1 if the market blows up. One can also buy longer-dated SPY puts -- if using at-the-money, I'd buy one contract for every 50 SPY shares you would have shorted -- for accounts where one doesn't want to set up margin. (I don't like betting with other people's money.)

Just my personal thoughts in response to your question. I'd be interested to know yours.

Bro, Ford is 140 billion in debt and has a BBB credit rating.

[GwenJuz]

Well the big concern now is whether there is going to be changes in the real estate market due to Presidency of Trump.