[bacon]

Quote:

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) on Sunday predicted overwhelming congressional passage of an immigration reform bill.
“I think we are going to have a political breakthrough, that Congress is going to pass immigration reform,” Graham said on NBC's Meet the Press.

He said the Senate will give the reform bill — which currently has a path to citizenship for the nation's 11 million illegal immigrants — overwhelming support. “I think we are going to get plus 70 votes,” he said. “I've never been more optimistic about it.”

http://thehill.com/video/senate/305827-g...r-70-votes

I think the Republicans facing a demographic death spiral are going with a Hail Mary thinking giving illegals the vote will sway them to vote Republican. I think this will backfire and more likely just give Democrats even better numbers for future voters.

Also if these 11 million illegals do become legal how wouldn´t that burden already underfunded programs like Social Security and Medicare? As far as I can tell this bill makes no mention of how they will pay for the benefits to all these illegals.

Quote:

Indeed, it is no secret that the employment picture for low-skilled workers is abysmal. The national unemployment rate has been above 7.5 percent for more than four years and millions have dropped out of the workforce entirely. Among those without a high school diploma, the unemployment rate in May reached 11.1 percent, and for blacks without a high school diploma, it is more than 24 percent. The labor-force participation rate is at historic lows and long-term unemployment is the worst since the Great Depression. The workweek is shrinking, as well as wage rates. Barely one in two adult black males has a full-time job. A record 47 million people are on food stamps.

Quote:

The bill is structured so that most of the immigrants will be low-skilled. These immigrants will compete with Americans in the low-skilled labor markets. The competition is most fierce in some of the industries in which blacks historically have been highly concentrated, such as construction, agriculture and service. Since the supply of low-skilled workers already exceeds the demand, the massive influx in low-skilled immigrants bodes ill for all such workers

http://www.wvgazette.com/Opinion/OpEdCom...1306140130

Low wage workers and unskilled workers who are already in pretty bad shape from the recession are going to get another blow to their employment picture if they now have to compete against 11 million now legal low skilled immigrants willing to work longer and harder for less pay. This bill which may pass congress of course get made into law by Obama can´t represent what the vast majority of Americans want. How much more shit will Americans allow their Congressmen to get away with at the expense of the majority of the population?

[j r]

The Republican death spiral is self-imposed. There are plenty of minorities that tend towards political conservativism. The Republicans just can't stop alienating them.

[Tex Pro]

This bill will probably die in the House, but that doesn't change the demographic death spiral that Republicans face. It only puts it off for a few more years.

[augen sehen]

If they think Hispanics will vote Republican they have another think coming.

[CJ_W]

(06-17-2013 11:02 AM)j r Wrote:  

The Republican death spiral is self-imposed. There are plenty of minorities that tend towards political conservativism. The Republicans just can't stop alienating them.

This.

As a conservative minority myself (Ron Paul Supporter) I would in no way vote for any of the neocon republicans. If they changed their tone and stopped being what theyve been being for the past 12-13 years, and be ACTUAL conservatives, then I'd vote for them.

Also, a lot of "conservatives" hate the idea of welfare, social benefits, health care etc. but are eerily silent when someone mentions the 170+ U.S. bases around the world. . .

and the Trillions of Dollars spent on "defense"

A true conservative would actually put that on the table first, as the U.S. having bases all around the world hurts us mroe than just financially.

but, lets just take away welfare first and lets keep killing brown people around the world. while letting our soldiers die for no reason, and pissing off locals of pretty much every country on the planet.

When "conservatives" point out that "our social system can't hadle more people blah blah blah" and never discuss the constant state of war and war(I mean defense) spending thats going on, It seems to me that those people have an ulterior agenda. . .that isn't so accomodating of minorities.

This alienates minotiries, and causes the death spiral, not to mention the stupid fucking comments conservative senators and conressmen make on a daily basis! It's like "WOW I want to like you guys, but. . .you guys just cant keep your mouth shut for five seconds"

(looking at you Romney)

[Emancipator]

(06-17-2013 11:02 AM)j r Wrote:  

The Republican death spiral is self-imposed. There are plenty of minorities that tend towards political conservativism. The Republicans just can't stop alienating them.

That's how the Conservatives in Canada managed to be successful, even though the Liberals were the ones that supported all the immigrant's causes, the Conservatives realized that minorities are more politically conservative.

Conservative government in Canada is made up of traditional rural/suburban votes mixed in with ethnic urban ones.

[Tex Pro]

(06-17-2013 12:04 PM)Emancipator Wrote:  

(06-17-2013 11:02 AM)j r Wrote:  

The Republican death spiral is self-imposed. There are plenty of minorities that tend towards political conservativism. The Republicans just can't stop alienating them.

That's how the Conservatives in Canada managed to be successful, even though the Liberals were the ones that supported all the immigrant's causes, the Conservatives realized that minorities are more politically conservative.

Conservative government in Canada is made up of traditional rural/suburban votes mixed in with ethnic urban ones.

This is going to be a lot harder to do in the USA since minorities and rural/suburban whites don't agree on much and don't really get along very well.

[Capitán Peligroso]

Quote:

Low wage workers and unskilled workers who are already in pretty bad shape from the recession are going to get another blow to their employment picture if they now have to compete against 11 million now legal low skilled immigrants willing to work longer and harder for less pay.

This is a feature, not a bug, and it's the type of concession that especially republican lawmakers and their corporate/business financial backers require in this type of legislation. They know that demographics will ensure that another republican will never get elected president without paying some lip service to diversity and placating minority communities. So they pay that lip service in a way that's great for the 1% and bad for the 99%, which not only means lots of big money for campaign coffers, it also exerts downward pressure on labor markets (basic supply and demand) and ensures lots of angry economically disenfranchised white voters who vote republican like clockwork because they're not smart enough to figure out the game.

[LoveBug]

As a white guy I'll weigh in on this issue.. Why do anyone but Hispanics themselves agree with legalizing illegals? Why would African-Americans, for example, want to compete with them during times of unemployment? I thought there was already a compromise - shoring up the immigration system and security so this isn't a continued issue and sending these people to the back of the line to await citizenship (and I don't even agree with needless legal immigration)? I would prefer not to have a non-stop invasion of this country.. Legalizing these people so they in turn could vote to legalize more etc. until this is Latin America, hundreds of years before anticipated

[ElJefe]

Can someone explain to me why the Democrats and their allies believe a an area populated by a majority of Mexicans (and that would be the most, on average, crime-prone and least productive Mexicans) will not look like Mexico?

[Hotwheels]

(06-17-2013 02:48 PM)ElJefe Wrote:  

Can someone explain to me why the Democrats and their allies believe a an area populated by a majority of Mexicans (and that would be the most, on average, crime-prone and least productive Mexicans) will not look like Mexico?

They don't care what it looks like. Only how they vote.

[Merenguero]

(06-17-2013 11:24 AM)augen sehen Wrote:  

If they think Hispanics other than Cubans and Cuban Americians will vote Republican they have another think coming.

I fixed it for you.

[iknowexactly]

(06-17-2013 02:54 PM)Hotwheels Wrote:  

(06-17-2013 02:48 PM)ElJefe Wrote:  

Can someone explain to me why the Democrats and their allies believe a an area populated by a majority of Mexicans (and that would be the most, on average, crime-prone and least productive Mexicans) will not look like Mexico?

They don't care what it looks like. Only how they vote.

Exactly. Unless a congressperson is themselves Hispanic, they will never be living in a predominantly Hispanic neighborhood ( unless it's some rich Miami oligarch neighborhood.) All their kids go to Harvard or the like. Congress is a THEY who doesn't care about you. All royalty as always been the same.

Congress votes to retain its jobs and position, their votes are only distantly sometimes related to what's good for the country.

[Tex Pro]

(06-17-2013 03:02 PM)Merenguero Wrote:  

(06-17-2013 11:24 AM)augen sehen Wrote:  

If they think Hispanics other than Cubans and Cuban Americians will vote Republican they have another think coming.

I fixed it for you.

No so anymore. Young Cuban-Americans are starting to vote Democratic:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/14...ms-in-2012

What I find interesting as well is that Asians voted slightly more for the Democrats than Hispanics in 2012.

That means only rural/suburban whites are still voting for the GOP in great numbers anymore.

[le prince perdu]

That would be interesting, especially for me as an immigrant it's pretty hard to do anything. I can't even get a job out of my campus legally, and to get a green card I got to get married. It's time for the laws to change

[Merenguero]

(06-17-2013 03:09 PM)The Texas Prophet Wrote:  

(06-17-2013 03:02 PM)Merenguero Wrote:  

(06-17-2013 11:24 AM)augen sehen Wrote:  

If they think Hispanics other than Cubans and Cuban Americians will vote Republican they have another think coming.

I fixed it for you.

No so anymore. Young Cuban-Americans are starting to vote Democratic:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/14...ms-in-2012

I've read articles like that before, but there is still a pretty high percentage of Cubans and Cuban Americans who have voted republican in the past and who will continue to do so. I believe the percentage of Cubans and Cuban Americans who vote republican is higher than that of any other group of Latin American origin, maybe much higher.

[Exactaking]

The Sailer Strategy. If the Republicans weren't just globalists who exploit us cracker folk for votes (just like how the Dems are globalists who exploit blacks and other minorities), they could win. Of course, I have half a mind to believe all this immigration is a scheme to breed out crackers, making the rich whites the only whites, a la latin America.

But at least they're will be some brown poon. Can't get me enough of that

http://www.vdare.com/articles/the-sailer...ve-america

[germanico]

So, the while the american males should be scrambling to get out of the country, its not ok that the males of the rest of the world to fill in the void.

[speeddemon]

The Immigration Bill passed in the Senate 68-32.

I can't believe this law passed. Just because Republicans love slave labor and Democrats love their future voters doesn't mean it is good for the country.

Of the two, I would have to blame Obama and the Democrats, who have been absolutely horrible on this issue for the most part.

[LoveBug]

(06-28-2013 04:21 AM)speeddemon Wrote:  

The Immigration Bill passed in the Senate 68-32.

I can't believe this law passed. Just because Republicans love slave labor and Democrats love their future voters doesn't mean it is good for the country.

Of the two, I would have to blame Obama and the Democrats, who have been absolutely horrible on this issue for the most part.

But, don't they have enough of it now? Are there record numbers of unemployed, underemployed and disenfranchised? Is the country definitively projected to get better? Help explain to me the need for more cheap labor other than the government selling its citizens out?

[speeddemon]

(06-28-2013 09:45 PM)LoveBug Wrote:  

(06-28-2013 04:21 AM)speeddemon Wrote:  

The Immigration Bill passed in the Senate 68-32.

I can't believe this law passed. Just because Republicans love slave labor and Democrats love their future voters doesn't mean it is good for the country.

Of the two, I would have to blame Obama and the Democrats, who have been absolutely horrible on this issue for the most part.

But, don't they have enough of it now? Are there record numbers of unemployed, underemployed and disenfranchised? Is the country definitively projected to get better? Help explain to me the need for more cheap labor other than the government selling its citizens out?

Exactly the problem.

There is a ~7.5% unemployment rate with record low labor participation rates.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Organization has said that while the average wage for both low skill and high skill workers will decline for a decade after this bill is passed while unemployment will rise. After the first decade, the CBO uses a variety of speculative assumptions to show employment and wage growth, which may or may not materialize. For now, passing this bill basically amounts to selling out the American people to corporations and other businesses.

My only hope now is that the House will be too dysfunctional to pass this bill. I don't think the Republicans are smart enough to oppose the bill for the right reasons, but hopefully they will get caught up on something stupid (gay rights for immigrants for example) and decide not to pass the bill.

[Kabal]

(06-17-2013 03:24 PM)Exactaking Wrote:  

But at least they're will be some brown poon. Can't get me enough of that

http://www.vdare.com/articles/the-sailer...ve-america

Not the kind you'll want, though. Mexico is a more Amerindian-by-descent country in the first place, and low-skilled labor will be heavily male-biased and low-SES-biased, and thus Amerindian-biased.

The female Mexican immigrants that do come into America (will) tend to be generally short-legged, chubby, and not particularly gifted facially.

These aren't Paisas or Buenos Aires chicks we'll be taking; it'll be the bottom of the totem pole from Mexico.

[Exactaking]

(06-29-2013 01:17 AM)Kabal Wrote:  

(06-17-2013 03:24 PM)Exactaking Wrote:  

But at least they're will be some brown poon. Can't get me enough of that

http://www.vdare.com/articles/the-sailer...ve-america

Not the kind you'll want, though. Mexico is a more Amerindian-by-descent country in the first place, and low-skilled labor will be heavily male-biased and low-SES-biased, and thus Amerindian-biased.

The female Mexican immigrants that do come into America (will) tend to be generally short-legged, chubby, and not particularly gifted facially.

These aren't Paisas or Buenos Aires chicks we'll be taking; it'll be the bottom of the totem pole from Mexico.

That's why I was thinking, shit, if America is going to be filled with spanish speaking essentially Indians (I saw a bunch of what looked like Incans getting chicken the other night), I might as well move somewhere in South America where the "latinos" are just spanish speaking whites, in fact, what I call exotic whites (dark skin but european features). Why pay taxes and live in Miami when you can live in south America, where nobody expects you to pay taxes. I hear Chile has ugly women, but its lower crime than the US and at less likely to confiscate funds. Could be a good base, only 10% debt to GDP.

[Quintus Flaminius]

I have mixed feelings about this.
1.When Hispanics are the majority in California, they'll vote La Raza, not for the Democrats.
2.When Hispanic CONSERVATIVES outnumber White leftists in the Democratic votebank, the policies pursued by the Democrats will also change.
Which means the end of Feminism, LGBT, radical environmentalism, and so on.

As far as social issues are concerned, White Trad cons and Hispanic trad cons see eye to eye on many issues.
The PROBLEM is by voting Democrat, they vote in the same economic totalitarianism, that is strangling Latin America.
And the Republicans have not once, for nearly half a century produced a true fiscal conservative.
Seriously, I think I would be an Obamanut, were it not for Ron Paul's YouTube videos, the Neocons are the dumbest politicians out there.
Social issues- conservative, economics?, well let's find out, just explain the consequences of excessive worker regulations, excessive environmental regulations, and see what happens.
But yes, as far as the test scores are concerned, yes, Hispanics will bring the average down.