Since China is the 2nd largest economy in the world, a pullback in its economy would have global implications. Last Sunday the tv show 60 minutes did a segment on the housing bubble in China. For the members in China who are not able to watch this with youtube restrictions I will give a breakdown below of the major talking points.
The clip discusses how the housing bubble has created ghost cities with miles and miles of empty apartments. Since property prices have always gone up in china and the limits on what Chinese can invest (cant invest abroad and bank investment returns are low) in it has fueled the investment demand. Residential housing is driving upwards of 25% of the current economy. The government has invested some 2 trillion into the construction of new cities over the years at a rate of 12-24 new cities a year most of which are unoccupied. While many Chinese are moving from the country to the city the housing bubble is building up the wrong type of apartments which are completely unaffordable to the poor from the country.
The concern is that If the bubble bursts 50 million construction workers will be unemployed. It would swipe out generations of wealth that have been invested in housing. Even the CEO of the biggest home building company in China believes homes are two expensive and prices are in a bubble. The video cites a statistic that the average apartment in Shanghai costs 45 times the average residents salary.
Since 2011 government has only allowed citizens to purchase 1 home. This caused a pullback in investment demand (causes a pullback in housing prices) which has causing over leveraged developers to go bankrupt. There are fears of a debt crisis as developers have already stopped building on partially constructed buildings as they can no longer service the loans. The government fears social unrest if the bubble bursts as it would wipe out the nest eggs of many Chinese and also leave some 50 million unemployed construction workers.
While not included in the 60 minutes clip it should also be noted that in 2012 cooper demand in China slowed to the lowest level in 15 years. This is a good metric for measuring economic growth as more cooper use generally correlates with a growing economy.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-30...years.html
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