[LoveBug]

Does anyone believe that there is a consistent, valid way of making money betting on sports?

When I was younger, I used to bet on certain sports games. Never made any money consistently but never had much acumen for the craft or a method to what I was doing.

Recently I had a friend who claims to make money from sports betting much like an investor in the stock market does. He diversifies his bets and over a period of time makes money very incrementally.

I wonder if it is as simple as attaining the winning sports picks from a bettor with a known winning history and just gutting it out until you make a profit over the long haul?

[Luvianka]

Don't you get me started on this one! I bet on sports everyday (http://www.bet365.com and http://www.pronosticos.gob.mx), in World Soccer and Football. I don't want to show off, but I make a average net profit of US$3,000 a month, which is a respectable amount of money in Mexico.
It's not simple, you need to develop your own strategy over time. It took me about two years to have one of my own.

[Enigma]

It can be done but like Luvianka says, you need to develop a strategy over time and time in sports betting equals money. Diversity is good but you need to be disciplined about it. The plus is that the money needed to invest and learning curve are not nearly as high as trading stock.

I actually got something in the mail from my betting site today but I just don't have the time to invest into researching teams at this point. If you have NBA League Pass and bet on the playoffs you can make a killing though as the seven games series in basketball make it much easier to predict.

[Enigma]

P.S. I'll let you in on a good NFL strategy...bet on the Falcons all season because they're winning the Super Bowl this year

[Luvianka]

If you don't want to take my word on it, this is the prize I just cashed this morning. I bet MX$500 (US$38.9587) on 4 Saturday night Mexican Soccer League matches, and four hours later I won MX$14,365 (US$1,119.2835). Not bad! It was like banging an 8.

[mikeymike]

Luvianka isn't the norm but if he's that hot i'd wish he'd post some of his picks over here lol...help some of us travel some more

sports gambling is what people often refer to as a hard way to make an easy living cause it's stacked against you. You have less information than the books, you don't have endless funds so money management is key and most people suck at it, you need a good starting bankroll to survive rough patches that will come. I've been sports betting for a good 10 years and have read anything and everything there is, I've read lines, I've watched public plays, smart plays, steam, reverse movement, and you can grind out a profit but unless your banks big enough you won't be able to grind out enough of a profit to even supplement an income. I know 2 guys who do it full time in vegas with 300k+ bankrolls, and they both had years in the 25-35k profit range but there were times they were down many times that, for the hours they invested into those games that profit is a joke. Look at as a way to have fun and save yourself the headache, it becomes all consuming when you take it too seriously and you'll age prematurely watching bad bounces if you do it for anything other than kicks. That said I won 2k this weekend on football so somedays it's fun but I'll be honest I've lost that many times over.

[sucio44]

Is betting on the horses easier (to win) than betting on sports?

What are some basic sports betting strategies?

[Katatonic]

Money management is the most important aspect of sports betting. I've never had long term success, but I've seen people make livings off it. I've also seen people lose everything they had. The guy who makes good cash betting, works harder than day traders I know.

[Enigma]

(10-01-2012 10:00 PM)Luvianka Wrote:  

If you don't want to take my word on it, this is the prize I just cashed this morning. I bet MX$500 (US$38.9587) on 4 Saturday night Mexican Soccer League matches, and four hours later I won MX$14,365 (US$1,119.2835). Not bad! It was like banging an 8.

Nice!

Soccer seems like the best sport to bet on based on what I've seen though I don't know shit about the teams. Hitting parlays isn't the stretch it is in football and even if you go 5% on plays like that you're making money.

[zarzuelazen]

The best way to make money from sports betting is not outright betting, but trading the price movements on the odds. On Betfair you can Back (bet for an event) and Lay (bet against it). This enables you to trade the odds on sports just like the stock exchanges, and you can hedge and take profits even before the event starts. Trading is far superior to ordinary betting, because you can put much more money through and use hedging to reduce the severity of the statistical fluctuations.

As mentioned above however, you need a really big bank to be able to get a decent living this way. Percentages are small, so you have to put huge amounts through to get a decent income. Most people don't have a big enough starting bank, they over-stake and hence lose all their money.

[bacon]

i love to bet on sports especially when im watching a game where i dont care who wins, by betting on a team it keeps me more interested in the game.

[zarzuelazen]

(10-01-2012 10:09 PM)sucio44 Wrote:  

Is betting on the horses easier (to win) than betting on sports?

What are some basic sports betting strategies?

Horse racing is probably the hardest sport to make money on. It's my specialty however (I do the UK horse racing markets).

You need to be able to bet both for something ('Back') and against something ('Lay') for basic strategies to work.

Here are the basic strategies, which are broadly applicable not only across sports markets, but also on financial trading in general:

Lay (bet against) 'false favourites'

Here you are looking for over-hyped selections that are at short-odds and you just take out-right bets against the crowd. Simple but effective.

Momentum swing trading or 'follow the money':

In markets where there is a clear price trend, where prices are moving only one way, try to catch the trend early on, and bet with the crowd. The key here is speed... you need to catch the trend right the start, before everyone else gets on the band-wagon. If you get on too late, eventually there will be a correction , where the price has moved too far in the one direction, it will move back somewhat ('correct' itself), and the people that were too late getting on will lose their money. If the price starts to move against you, use 'stop-loss' to limit the loss. Follow the money, basically. Provided you let your profits run when the price goes your way and 'stop loss' when it goes against you, you will win over the long run.

Contrarian swing trading or 'bet against the crowd'

The opposite of the above. Most markets are chaotic, meaning there will be no clear trends. In this case, you want to do the opposite of the above strategy, and bet against the crowd. Here you waiting for the prices to move in a certain direction, then you bet against the trend, on the grounds that the price will be more likely to 'revert to the mean' and move back in the opposite direction. The key here is to recognize when you are in a market with no clear trend, and then you need know which prices are likely to be 'value'. Once you see a price that you think is value, bet against the crowd.

Scalping

In any market, there will be a difference between the Back price and Lay price (or the 'buy' price and the 'sell price). In stable markets, you can exploit this difference for profit simply by 'reversing the book'; all you have to do is back at the lay price and lay at the back price (you are in effect, 'offering money' to the market, or setting the odds you will accept). The problem here is that the price needs to remain stable for long enough for your bets to be matched. So you need to recognize when prices are likely to be stable and when they are not.

Arbitrage

Different book makers and exchanges will offer slightly different odds. If you are quick enough, you can back at one exchange and lay at a different one, for profit. Obviously,the key here is being able to find different book makers and exchanges that will both accept your bets.

[RougeNoir]

Anyone use bovada.lv, the former bodog? What's a good one to use in the US without the hassles?

[XXL]

soccer/european football was quite predictable until i started betting. shit shit shit... my first lesson was that there are no sure shots ahahahaha..

my friend told me about a system.. around half of first league you see which teams have the most draws and you bet on these teams (draws only) increasing every next bet times 2 until you win. example.. 1nd bet 4$ on draw. if fails then 2nd bet 8$ on draw. if fails then 3nd bet 16$ on draw. if fails then 4nd bet 32$ on draw etc etc.

haven't tried it yet though

[tarquin]

I used to bet American football. I avoided parlays most of the time.

The key really is to go against the crowd most of the time. You want to be betting with the smart money, not joe schmoe who thinks that Houston is going to destroy whoever they play this week.

Follow a few select teams closely. Of all the teams in the NFL, I was following and consistently betting on or against only 5 or 6 of them. These teams don't have to be the best teams in the league, I tried to mix things up with a few good teams and a few bad teams. This way you can recognize when a good team is turning bad and when a bad team is improving.

Betting on point totals can be more profitable than betting the spread. The break even point total used to be either 39 or 41 (I forget). So if the quoted total was above 41, take the under unless you had a good reason to take the over and vice versa. For this, weather can play a role. It is helpful to have a meteorologist in the family.

Home dogs have this mystic aura surrounding them, but I usually don't buy it. There are some really bad home underdogs. Being at home isn't going to help the Browns beat New England.

Remember what I said about going against the grain? The best times for going against conventional wisdom are at the beginning and end of the season. This year everybody(well, the idiots I know...) was talking about how Drew Brees doesn't need a coach because he is so great on his own. WRONG! The Saints are 1 and 4. Now, I haven't gambled in a while, so I don't know the spreads on those games... but I'm guessing that they were favorites in at least 3 of those games and didn't beat the spread. As soon as everybody realizes that the Saints are winning games... the disparity between the betting public and the squares closes and it becomes harder to bet against the normal gambling public. The same is true for the end of the year. People become accustomed to certain teams doing well and others doing poorly and this results in an exaggerated line. Do some homework and bet that.


Parlay bets are fun, but in the long run you are better off betting individual games. If you want to parlay something, parlay a prop bet with some beer money for fun.

Which leads me to...

Proposition bets are (usually) for suckers... which means you can make a profit on them if you can spot why they are sucker bets, but don't make a habit of it.

[Merenguero]

Where you can bet on sports

If you want to legally bet on sports other than horseracing in the United States, you really have only two options. The first option is to bet online (not recommended) and the second option is to go to a sportsbook. The only states which allow sportsbooks are Nevada, Delaware, Montana, and Oregon. My understanding is that the Delaware sportsbooks only allow betting on pro football. If you choose to bet on sports in the United States, I believe your best option would be to go to Las Vegas. Most of the sportsbooks are located there and you can shop around for the best odds before placing your bet. Almost all of the major Las Vegas casino hotels have sportsbooks. If you bet over a certain amount, the sportsbooks will have you fill out tax forms.

How the odds work

No sportsbooks will give their odds over the phone. All you can really do is go to Las Vegas and go to as many differenct sportsbooks as possible and compare the odds. There are various websites which give sports odds, but those are unofficial odds and I can state from personal experience that those odds can be inaccurate. The odds system used by the sportsbooks is sometimes referred to as "American odds." Rather than using numbers like 10 to 1 or 1/10, the American odds system uses numbers like -1000 or +200. In boxing, if a particular boxer has a +200 next to his name, it means that he is a 2 to 1 underdog. If you bet $100 on a +200 fighter, you will win $200 and you will receive back the $100 which you originally bet. If you bet $100 on a guy who has -5000 next to his name, you will win $2 and will get back your original $100. You can choose either boxer to win the fight, you can bet that the fight will end in a draw, or you can bet that the fight will go over or under a certain amount of rounds. Under 9 1/2, +150 means that if you bet $100 that the fight ends (almost always by either knockout or disqualification) in under 9 1/2 rounds, you will make $150 for each $100 that you bet. You can also specifically bet both that a particular boxer will win the fight and the manner in which he will win. The odds may say, for example, Floyd Mayweather by decision -150. If you make that type of bet and Mayweather wins by knockout, you are screwed.

Football betting (I have no experience betting with football and will never bet on it, but this is my understanding) works as follows. You can make a straight bet on one team or the other as with boxing. If Denver has a -150 next to it against San Diego, if you bet $100, you make $75 if Denver wins. You can also bet on the total number of points scored in the game over 50 points may be -125 and under 50 points may be +150. You can also make bets regarding the point spread and the specific amount of points by which one team may beat the other.

How to make money by betting on sports

The only sports about which I could be considered an expert or about which I even care about at this point in my life are boxing and tennis. I don't think I would ever bet on tennis. Even the best tennis players lose many, many matches in their careers. A tennis player who wins 80% or more of his total matches is considered a legend. All great tennis players, Agassi, McEnroe, Federer, etc. have lost to no-name opponents at some point in their careers. That can be a disaster if you are trying to make money off a person winning a tennis match. I don't believe betting on a sport in which the participant has at best a 80% win percentage is at all a wise choice.

I believe boxing is the best sport to bet on, but you have to be very smart about it. Regardless about how knowledgable you are about boxing and how to place bets, you can still be screwed. Always bear in mind that Mike Tyson lost when he was at least a -5000 favorite to beat Buster Douglas. Those kinds of upsets don't happen every day, every year, or maybe even every decade, but they can and do happen. What sets boxing apart from most other sports in terms of betting is that boxing does produce guys who never lose. The names Floyd Mayweather, Rocky Marciano, and Joe Calzaghe come to mind as boxers who have never lost. I wouldn't be at all suprised if Floyd retires undefeated as he probably will not fight more than a few more times. In my opinion, the best pound for pound boxers today are Mayweather, Manny Pacquiao, Sergio Martinez, Andre Ward, and Saul Alvarez. A straight bet on any of those guys is a very smart move unless they are fighting each other. So far, none of those two guys have fought each other. If any of those guys were to fight each other, the winner may be too doubtful to place a straight bet on any of them. The smart move may be to bet that the fight will go over 9 1/2 rounds, if the sportsbooks happen to allow such a bet in that particular fight. Any of those guys would most likely go the distance with any of those other guys and you can make money by betting that the fights go over 9 1/2 rounds. Another strategy would be to place a straight bet on the favorite and place another bet on the fight going over 9 1/2 rounds. That way, the underdog would basically have to knock the favorite out for you to lose completely. It happens, but it is rare. Such a strategy would protect you at least partially from an unfair decision. You would win the part of the bet regarding the duration of the fight, but would lose the part of the bet regarding who would win. The key is to find a fight in which it is pretty clear who will win, but which does not have horrible odds (more than -500 for the favorite). These fights do not always happen extremely often, but they can be very profitable. I definitely do not recommend placing a bet that the fight will end in a draw. The only benifit that betting on a draw has is that the odds are often very favorable. If you are looking for 33 to 1 odds, I'm quite sure that there are a few roulette (also not recommended) tables near the sportsbook. Save yourself the time and lose your money betting on roulette. Either that or send your money to me. I can PM you my address if you want.

Just so you guys know, I actually have experience making money at this and am not merely an academic. Last month, I put together every dime I could and took a flight to Las Vegas. There were two major fights in town at that time, Saul Alvarez v. Josesito Lopez and Sergio Martinez v. Julio Cesar Chavez, Jr. Everyone knew El Canelo (Alvarez) was going to win by knockout, so the odds were obviously horrible and I didn't waste my time betting on that fight. I saw the Martinez fight as a complete mismatch, but appearently some oddsmakers did not. They set the odds on Martinez winning at -190 and set the odds that the fight would go over 9 1/2 rounds at -250. I put half of my money on Martinez winning and the other half of my money on the fight going over 9 1/2 rounds. The fight turned out to be even more of a mismatch than I thought it would be. When I saw that round 10 ended, I jumped in a taxi to collect my winnings from that part of the bet. While I was in the taxi, I saw on my phone that Martinez had won a unanimous decision. Everything easily went in my favor. I'm not in a rush to go back there and do this again. If another fight comes up which I see as a complete mismatch and the odds are not horrible, I will definitely do it again.

[Blaze Frazier]

Bet parlays if you want to make bigger money.

When I went out to Las Vegas for work two years ago, I put $100 on a six-team parlay. My payday was quite nice, even though I won my last game on a walk-off home run.

[RenewalMan]

The dad of this chick I knew in high school's career was betting at the dog tracks. Based on what they had (nice house on the water, boat, pool, etc.) he probably made 3-500k per year solely betting on dogs. I know that's not quite the same thing as betting on sports, but still.

If you spend enough time and know what your doing you can make a profit on anything.

[MidniteSpecial]

Few win long term. You need discipline, inside info and good trend system. Home underdogs are usually a good bet. Bookies love guys who bet all pArlays and all favorites because they know these are losers long term. It is a mArathon not a sprint. As fast as you win you can lose double that even faster. Set out a guideline and stick to it. Always bet at most 10% of your bankroll and keep a win loss record. Do not take high money line faves it is a losing proposition long term. Do not chase. Keep a level head. Do it for side money dont try to get rich off it. It's all about your bankroll and discipline. I have seen a lot of misery come from gambling and its just not worth it.

[aphelion]

All of these generic pieces of advice (betting home underdogs, etc.) is nice, but if you don't have a near encyclopediac knowledge about the sport you shouldn't bet it. I made a little scratch betting small dollars on MMA but that's because I've been eyeballs-deep in watching and analyzing MMA for nearly a decade. For instance, knowing why Jon Fitch as a +177 underdog against an undefeated prospect was absolutely bonkers is key.

Being able to predict line movement, anticipating trends, etc. is all useful but it needs to be accompanied by a solid foundation of understanding about the sport itself. It's the Inner Game of sports betting.

[aphelion]

And by 'a little scratch' I mean like upper three digits. Not much to brag about, so don't take it as one.

[MidniteSpecial]

Yes you are right to a degree but I have friends who played division one football who have lost their life saving betting on football. They know the game very well. I had great success betting home dogs in the right situations. It's all about situations. Is it a revenge game? Who are they playing the next week? Who did they just play? So many situations and a lot are tried and true. I won a lot of money betting football. But I lost it all and more betting my winnings on basketball once the season was done. It is like crack man. It is drug. IMO I think the most important part of gambling is money management.

[Merenguero]

Does anyone know the tax consequences associated with betting at a sportsbook? If you win over a certain amount, do you have to claim that amount as income? The reason I am asking is that I was granted a tax extension until Tuesday, October 15, 2012 by which to file my 2012 taxes. I already filed my personal property return on April 15, 2013. In September 2012, I made a five-figure amount betting on the Sergio Martinez-Julio Cesar Chavez, Jr. fight. Before I placed the bet, I filled out a tax form (I'm not sure exactly which form I filled out). I never received a 1099 or any other document from the sportsbook after I cashed in. A few weeks ago, I went to that same sportsbook to try to ask these questions in person. They couldn't give me any information. I just spoke to customer service from the sportsbook's corporate offices and they told me that I don't have to report anything. I have had issues in the past regarding taxes, although all of those issues have been resolved. I am therefore pretty paranoid about this stuff. Also, if you lose money at a sportsbook (I've never lost. Knock on wood), is there any tax benefit?

[KingJamesXXIII]

Ive made 4 trips to Vegas and Im 16-4 overall at the sportsbook (Bets ranging from $50-$300 per game)
Just got back from a 5-2 trip.

[LowerCaseG]

Here's an example.
Green Bay -7
Most people would interpret that as the house is predicting Green Bay will win by 7. That's not really it. The line is being set so half the money is bet on one side, and half the money is bet on the other, so the house can make their risk free 10%. So, a team like the New York Giants, or Dallas, who have a huge number of fans compared to say, Jacksonville, the line will be skewed because more money will be behind the popular team, and is not really indicative of the true odds of winning/losing if they are playing each other. So, a lot of dumb money can push the line out of whack, and you bet the other side. But that's my two cents, I don't really bet sports. I think the people that think doing a ton of research, i.e. knowing the game/team inside and out is a sucker's play. Knowing if someone is banging the quarterback's wife is another thing.