Quote: (09-09-2012 08:43 PM)gringochileno Wrote:
Quote: (09-09-2012 08:22 PM)MaleDefined Wrote:
The excellent NYT 538 blog is really the only required reading for this election.
Yes, 538 is awesome. I've been reading it since the 2008 campaign when he pretty much called the election on the money, there's a reason why Nate Silver got a gig at the NYT.
Another place I check to get an idea of where the overall race stands is intrade.com. It currently has Obama at about a 58% chance of winning which is significantly more bearish than 538 but that reflects people who have real money riding on the election so I think it's a reasonable barometer.
My subjective feeling is that Obama's chances of winning are somewhere between those two numbers. Obama would win for sure if the election were held today, but he only seems to be up by a few points once you correct for the convention bounce, and there's always the chance of something unexpected happening to move the percentages in either direction. The race is still close enough that a significant piece of negative news for Obama could tip the balance. At this point I would probably take a bet on Romney if someone offered me 3:1 odds but I probably wouldn't take 2:1 anymore since I think Obama definitely got the better of the conventions.
Yes, I find Intrade very interesting on concept alone. Additionally, it is very accurate because of the real money on it. Also, it's interesting because you don't really know where that money being traded comes from. I think the 58% number comes more for built in risk of predicting the actions of 80MM people and outside economic, social, or military factors that President Obama has little control over.