[Nemencine]

(09-24-2013 10:46 PM)phoenix101 Wrote:  

..... I'll admit I usually made my best returns making bets during a bubble ('99/'00) or investing in the most battered stocks after a major crash ('09)......

(09-24-2013 11:46 PM)master_thespian Wrote:  

.....The other time it is good to invest is after the market takes a major hit, a couple of years ago greece went bankrupt and the dow fell a couple hundred points. The stocks that fell, some were good companies that were bound to recover. I bought more google the next day.

That is how you fucking trade event driven strategies! fucking a! That is what i am talking about!
In fact, let me point out a good example here. This happens on the 5th of august, 2013 when china hit new zealand with a total ban on all their dairy products. I quickly made a post here about the event and mentioned some stocks like dean foods(ticker: DF) and kraft(ticker:KRFT) as potential good short candidates....they were both demolished later. Unilever was crushed too...all starting from 6th of august....NZD currency went down with a veangeance before recovering when the dust settled. out of all the stocks....KRFT has the best fundamentals....DF had the worst fundie.

(08-04-2013 04:40 PM)Nemencine Wrote:  

EVENT DRIVEN TRADE: #1. short NZD currencies when the forex market opens,
#2. short stocks of milk-related products companies with exposure to nEW ZEALAND's milk industry...
#3. prepare to go long milk-product companies without exposure to new zealand after the dust settles...
#4. go long alternatve to milk-products without exposure to new zealand.

WHY?

I just read this right now in the NYT: CHINA BANS milk powder from NEW ZEALAND over Botulism fears.

Holy shite!

The main export from New Zealand is MILK/dairy product...their main trading partner: CHINA.

holy shite double time!

basically, NEW ZEALAND currency, the NZD, aka the KIWI is fucked for the time being. Short that baby. Also, CHINA took the additional steps of banning milk products from australia too....

To those who likes to trade global macro...that means the stocks of companies with exposure to dairy products from new zealand will experience a hit....there could also be a sympathetic play against other diary products giants that are not exposed to the new zealand market...however, since they are dairy giants, they will also take a hit.(making them a good buy at a later date.)

Naturally, as things even out...dairy giants without exposure to new zealand product will gobble up market share...displacing their weakened competitors....

also, alternative to milk, (supply elasticity) will experience increase in market share....

I have begun some quick preliminary research on the subject:
http://kevinbellamy.wordpress.com/2011/0...ry-top-10/
(kraft, unilever, nestle, dean, etc....)

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/compani...-products/

http://www.idfa.org/resource-center/memb...companies/

Need to go and do more research and see if i can MILK this....my job here is done....you lads take it from here....
.

The best short candidates were DF and LWAY. They subsequently missed earnings...DF is cash flow negative. revenue is dropping while operating income is eating the company innards....their debt to equity is ridiculous. ..DF earnings is shite. i mean,for heaven's sake just take a quick look at the company's fundamentals.

LWAY blames higher milk prices for shitty earnings. i like their debt to equity, but everything else sucks: they are having increase revenues while experiencing an increase total operating expenses--which means they cannot keep overhead underwrap.....their profit margin is also shrinking. Here is LWAY fundie.

KRFT on the other hand kick arse... i like their fundamentals...their debt could use some work...but still...KRFT kicks arse. Which makes it the one to buy when the dust settles from NZ dairy ban. KRFT staged a strong bullish run when it got to the appropriate technical levels(major support and resistance level at 52.20 area)...( i didnt pull the trigger though. why? i dont trust politicians:yes, NZ later announced to the world that the problem with their dairy products has been contained and resolved...but i was skittish...i just rode the shorts in LWAY and DF and let the rest be.

anyways, the chart tells the tale..... below is the chart of KRFT, DF, and LWAY. i was short DF and LWAY.