Quote: (12-23-2014 04:10 AM)Muk Wrote:
Quote: (12-23-2014 01:32 AM)DrewP Wrote:
Quote: (12-22-2014 03:08 PM)General Stalin Wrote:
Thats 0.0025%. Keep in mind this does not reflect actual convictions or false convictions - simply crime reports. You have a better chance of having an IQ over 150 or being drafted into major league sports from High School* than being a female rape victim.
* http://www.norwichcsd.org/Downloads/ProSportsOdds.doc
To play devil's advocate, it's actually 0.025%, and that's only one year's worth. Over the course of an 80-year lifetime, the probability of reporting a rape is then 1-(1-.00025)^80 = 1.98%.
Feminists claim that 1 in 5 women are raped at college. Just to get to 1 in 5 women being raped in their entire lives, you'd have to assume that all rape reports are true, and that 90% of rapes go unreported. Obviously the assumptions would have to get even more outrageous to jive with their college "statistic."
CONCLUSION: Feminists either have zero research skills, have no numerate individuals among their ranks, or willfully spread misinformation. I think it's some combination of the three.
Not quite.
There surely aren't very many 80 year old women being raped
or 1 year old girls.
You should instead factor it by 20 years instead of 80, since the ages between 15-35 is where pretty much all rapes happen.
I'm not a math whizz, but if you could plug that in, I'm sure your rate will drop significantly.
You can't just change the exponent to 20 because the 0.025% figure comes from people of all ages. If you wanted to make the assumption that there's only a 20 year window when a woman can be raped, you'd have to multiply the yearly probability of being raped by 80/20=4. The lifetime probability then becomes 1-(1-.001)^20 = 1.98%.
The difference between this and my original figure (which I just intended to be an approximation) is so insignificant, it's lost in rounding. It's good you brought it up though, because this exercise shows that the approximation isn't sensitive to assumptions about how the probability of rape is distributed across ages, therefore the 1.98% is likely spot on.