[Nemencine]

(12-27-2013 03:53 PM)thedude3737 Wrote:  

(12-27-2013 03:38 PM)chyamor Wrote:  

Im surprised target isnt getting its ass handed to it with this CC issue. Hardly a dent in the stock past 2 weeks

I was surprised too, not that I think it would affect their numbers but that there would be a speculated loss and subsequent sell-off.....

Perhaps, it is the santa claus rally effect: Historically, the stocks market tends to rally during the month of december. It is a plurality. Here is a quick historical tabulation:

(12-27-2013 03:53 PM)thedude3737 Wrote:  

.....
I'm somewhere above "slightly lazy" and am up 37% in '13. Half my investments are in Vanguard funds the other half in common stocks.

Good job, you sonofabitch. Excellent work.

(12-27-2013 03:53 PM)thedude3737 Wrote:  

....I'm a pretty defensive investor and would not risk more activity for that extra 7%, but I have major respect for guys that put in the legwork to attain those numbers.

Thanks. It is a cost/benefit analysis of your time, etc. the extra effort versus the return. All based on individual preferences. Anyways, despite the fact that i am happy with my 44.5%... i make sure to really tell myself an old trading adage: never confuse brains with a bull market. We are in a bull market that started in 2009....i have the sense that it will continue in 2014(although, not at the same strength as 2013). My instinct says: i should expect 2014 to be more challenging. We will see.

(12-27-2013 03:53 PM)thedude3737 Wrote:  

....Right off the bat in '14 I'm buying into metal mining companies while they're at these historic lows. Besides that just going to dollar cost average into my usual mix of telecom/tech, energy, and healthcare.

For me, i wont get a clear picture until late january to early february after i have sorted out my sector rotation strategy/commodity cycles. I need to worked that out. That will predisposed me to what sector/industry to get into. Because, you really dont want to buy into the wrong sector at the wrong time. I am sure Westcoast can teach a master class on this. To give an idea of what i mean by sector rotation strategies, here is a nice primer on the topic from Fidelity's.

To give you a very quick, visual idea of what i mean, i have included a couple of images below( of course, sector rotation strategies are guidelines, not completely etched in stone.)

As you can see from these images, based on what phase of the stock market we are in... certain sectors have the highest probability of yielding the greatest results. There are statistical studies done. It then boils down to (a) determining the right phase of the stock market (b)choosing the best stocks/vanguard funds/ETFs within the best sector. Anyways, the images paint a clearer picture:

image #1:


IMAGE # 2:


IMAGE #3


IMAGE #4




I hope that was helpful in explaining my thought process. Of course, there are overlaps .

regards,

Nemencine