[Spike]

(05-01-2013 09:34 AM)Tyroc7 Wrote:  

(04-29-2013 05:58 AM)liberman Wrote:  

At the start of 1941 before operation Barbarossa the german military was the most powerful and experienced in the world. It had recently defeated the french army along with the allied expedition force which was thought of at the time as the best in the world in just 6 weeks. The first month of the eastern front against the soviet union was incredibly successful in military terms for the germans. Virtually the entire soviet air force in the western region was destroyed and entire soviet armies had been surrounded and cut off. But the germans massively underestimated the red army ability to mobilize and the determination of the defense so there was no quick victory thus the vast majority of the Wehrmacht was tied up in the eastern front.
Had the Soviet Union collapsed it would be virtually impossible for Britain and America to liberate europe. Likewise had britain made peace with germany after the battle of france the Soviet Union probably would have collapsed after the german invasion regardless of american intervention because there would be no need to defend the atlantic wall with 900 000 solders. Germany ultimately had the power to beat the russians or the western allies but not both and so was defeated.

Interesting what if discussion.
Here’s my two cents:

On Germany defeating the UK: True, the Luftwaffe came close to decimating the RAF. Had the Luftwaffe continued to focus on radar installations instead of cities the air war may have ended differently. It does not necessarily follow, however, that Germany would have been able to invade and defeat the UK because of this thing called the English Channel. Germany was a second rate naval power ill-equipped to carry out and sustain a large scale amphibious operation. As Adam Tooze writes in THE WAGES OF DESTRUCTION “At no point in the war did Germany assemble the naval or aerial forces necessary to dominate the British Isles thought his was not for lack of trying. The task was simply beyond Germany’s industrial resources.” Later he writes “In the summer of 1940, Admiral Raeder and the Kreigsmarine did step up their planning for the construction of a new generation of giant battleships. But these would take years to come to fruition…”

So even with the RAF defeated it is not clear that Germany could have invaded the UK. Germany did not have the fleet to carry out such an invasion nor to supply such an invasion force after it landed.
On Germany almost defeating the USSR except for Hitler’s blunders and US aid: The USSR had help from the US. But Germany also had troops from other axis powers. Check out the order of battle for Operation Barbarossa http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_B...xis_forces
. You will notice significant contributions from Italy, Romania, Hungary and Finland. True, these troops didn’t measure up to the Werchmacht. But they could and did inflict casualties. The Finns in particular embarrassed the Russians in the Russo-Finnish war and were excellent troops in cold weather fighting. Moreover, until December 7, 1941 the Russians also had to keep between 500,000 – 1 million men in the Far East to guard against a Japanese attack. These troops proved pivotal in throwing the Germans back in front of Moscow.

While we’re conjuring up Hitler’s blunders, what about Stalin’s? Stalin purged his officer corps only a few years before the war. How would the Red Army have performed had their officer ranks been at full strength? The officers who were purged were often the most accomplished and independent thinking (these were the ones who were seen as a threat by Stalin) leaving behind sycophants who were too afraid to tell Stalin he didn’t know what he was doing. Why wasn’t the Red Army better prepared for an invasion that everyone knew was coming. Even without today’s technology you couldn’t line up 3 million men on a border without someone catching wind of this. British intelligence, Japanese intelligence, his own spies and even German deserters all warned the Soviets an invasion was about to come. Stalin’s own generals begged him to move some forces into the rear and to not to try to defend every nook and cranny of their newly conquered territory. Why was the Russian Air Force parked in airfields within striking distance of the Luftwaffe on the eve of the invasion?
If the German army did not have any allies, if the Russians did not have to guard against a Japanese attack, if Stalin had not purged his officer corps, if the Red Army had taken sensible precautions to prepare for a German attack, would the first few months of Eastern front have turned out differently? I suspect so.

One last point about Germany. The Germany military machine was built to win quick wars where the opponent was knocked out in a matter of months at most. The German military doctrine, their weaponry and their industry was all oriented towards quick decisive contests. For example, Germany had no real navy and no strategic bomber. Their tanks, while excellent were less amenable to mass production.
The problem is that the German military machine was fighting a war of attrition first against the British Empire, then the Soviets then the US. It is questionable that Germany could have ‘won’ a war of attrition against any of these powers individually let alone all three combined.

Tyroc7,

Thanks for your contribution and welcome to the forum.

Germany naval power was indeed weak but had they bombed all the radar stations it could have destroyed the RAF even with a lesser air force. The bombing raids by the Brits that followed in the years after hurt the German industry so much that they couldn't keep up with supplying the East front and developing their new rockets and other wonder weapons. It was Hitler himself who never believed in rocket power in the 1930's and after the start of the war. His blind faith in the wehrmacht (land forces) kept him from really allocating funds and man/brain power to develop such weapons.
The war would have developed a lot different if it had been raining down V-2's on London from the start of the war when the RAF couldn't do bombing raids.