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Argentina - Arbitrage
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Argentina - Arbitrage

Argentina has implemented strict currency controls on the purchase of foreign currency. The short backstory is they have huge bonds, the so-called Boden bonds, which they have guaranteed they will pay back in dollars on a yearly basis, and they are stretching terribly to make their payments both in August and December. Therefore, the central bank is not selling dollars to anyone w/in the country without proof of necessity; this has driven up the dollar price on the black market drastically, and created a tremendous arbitrage opportunity.

I've written about this briefly before, but the gap is only getting wider. Anyone who wants to come to Argentina now can take advantage of it w/o any serious paperwork; those who are based here, especially if you have peso-denominated bank accounts tied to a credit card which can be used abroad, stand to make bank.

A quick rundown of the various rates, updated constantly, is here:

http://dolarblue.net/

Cuevas, or black market exchange houses, are currently buying dollars at ~6, while the national bank is selling (if you can get approval to buy physical dollars) at ~4.54. That's a 30% markup, instantly. There are a few ways to take advantage of this.

Sending money to Argentina via money transfer (xoom.com) gives you that roughly 6:1 exchange rate. You can then purchase peso-denominated goods at a 30% discount.

You can buy plane tickets from travel agencies for yourself, or indeed anyone else at the dollar-price, converted to the peso price using the official exchange rate. If your cousin needs a flight from NY to London, you can get it for him at that massively discounted rate.

If you have a peso bank account w/ a credit card, things get significantly more interesting. You can buy things for anyone you know on amazon.com or what have you in dollars; your peso-denominated account will be charged at the official exchange rate.

The following I have not verified - but - using the Square payment system, you can send cash to yourself using your peso-denominated credit card from your Argentine bank account to your US bank account, if you're inside the US (or have a VPN connection) and have both a US and Argentine bank account. Imagine doing this with Visa Black/Amex Platinum card in high volume.

That's using the 6:1 "blue" dollar rate you get at exchange houses & using xoom. If you have both an Argentine and US brokerage account, you can purchase heavy volume-traded stocks on the NYSE, transfer them to your Argentine brokerage, and sell them in Buenos Aires. This method, referred to as a blue chip swap, will net you up to 6.7:1, a 47% premium on the official rate. This is currently the only easy method for companies based in Argentine to convert their profits to dollars in high-volume.

The currency controls may very well ease up after December, if the government manages their payments well and solves their energy-subsidy problem.
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