Quote: (03-04-2013 04:42 PM)Greek kamaki Wrote:
It is a war between Germanics and the Anglosaxon world.Both parts play their cards masterfully in a tit for tat while the Chinese observe carefully to enter the game.
The USA looks to be the best positioned. We have recapped our banks. While our unemployment situation isn't good, we have the majority of all the gold in the world inside our boarders, we are currently the global reserve currency, we have been using up everyone else's resources when ours remain in variety and plentiful, and we have the most effective navy in the world. There are many problems with the USA, but we have played our cards quite masterfully.
The UK and Europe both have not recapped their banks. Unemployment rates continue to rise in Europe. There will be a separation in the EU, the question simply is will it be Germany who leaves, or force everyone else to leave. Germany is willing to foot the bill for now, but the time is coming where they will say nien. The average German person does not want to be supporting some Spaniard. This rising stress in the social fabric of Europe is also reflected in European bonds. The US is actually still giving swap lines and extending all sorts of financial assistance to the EU, for now.
As for the "observant" Chinese, they are knee deep in the game whether they like it or not, and don't have that many moves.
I do plan on doing significant business in China, but not anywhere in the near term, sometime after the coming hardship.
China has huge amounts of local debt in every city and every province, all of which is not transparent. No one knows what the debt levels are in China, but I wouldn't feel comfortable with owning assets in China right now. With rising food prices, and food prices will keep rising as everyone continues to print money, it is only a matter of time before we start hearing of the Chinese Spring.
The PBOC doesn't have the option to ease, they are busy combating the rising inflation that has been exported to them. Every well connected person I know from China has said their family is, or already has, transferred most of their wealth out of the country.
We live in interesting times.